Quote:
Originally Posted by bcredliner
Not everyone has sheltered in place or followed the guidelines. Thats a source. No known defective masks in the area. Probably lots of masks that are not acceptable in the guidelines, that could be a source. I don't know how many folks there are not wearing masks. At best here it was somewhere around 20%. Since the staged start of opening it is about 80%. Hard to tell how much social distancing is being done. My guess is that it is a somewhere around 60%. But, that couldn't be more anecdotal.
The first day the public beach opened here it looked like an anthill someone had kicked open. The next day there were police there to force distancing. The city sent out notice to residents and posted at the beach entrance that if it continues the beach will be closed. Dallas has started to put injunctions on businesses that aren't supposed to be open or have not adjusted for social distancing. Even if everyone in the metroplex were following all the guidelines we are still be in trouble as infections and deaths are still increasing, we should still be sheltered in place until infections and hospitalizations have been declining for 2 weeks.
As to what point the virus is expected to be under control. It is when 1 person is infecting less than 1 person. If one person is infecting more that 1 person infections increase. If 1 person infects 2 or 3 the infection will increase exponentially, an extremely small range between the curve going down and a huge spike.
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I don't mind the mods closing this thread, but I think it's vital that we take the most important information from this thread before its closure, which is the above information posted by Bcredliner.
Despite all the different opinions we might have, the goal of this thread is to educate and inform folks about the danger of this new virus and what we can do to prevent it from spreading.
The gist of the prevention strategy, as bcredliner has pointed out, is the reduction of the "R" number. Let me quote him here:
"..It is when 1 person is infecting less than 1 person. If one person is infecting more that 1 person infections increase. If 1 person infects 2 or 3 the infection will increase exponentially, an extremely small range between the curve going down and a huge spike."
Understanding this strategy and adhering to whatever protocols that will make it happen is what we need to do.
Put your thoughts about personal freedom aside for a moment, and think about how we can contribute to reducing this number.
Britain is estimating that their "R" number is somewhere between 0.6 ~ 0.9, which is why they are contemplating limited and careful reopening of their economy.
They estimate that for every sector of the public they open, more risk factors are added to this number.
For instance, opening school could raise this number by a factor of 0.2.
Remember, any number above 1, that means 1 person is now infecting more than 1 person.
That means we are on the dangerous path of spreading the infection again.
It's simple as that.
p.s. Korea has just announced 0 new case of Covid-19 yesterday. This is following an intense and nationwide program of mass testing and tracing.
**edited to remove unnecessary rants**