Quote:
Originally Posted by andrewwynn
Yup, and i said back in january thet completely unrelated to covid, the message of hygiene will save 10s of 1000s of lives because at the time about 2000 people a week were dying from the flu (and zero per month were dying from covid).
I will still point out that do to 'driving completely blind' due to 'the powers that be' completely keeping us in the dark as to where and why it's high risk, we are aimlessly trying to avoid something we have no idea where it is.
statistics are bearing out that primarily people that were 'on the way out' just got bumped up in the line to the grim reaper and that people are mostly at risk if they are in very very high population density. Explain why 60% of non nursing home deaths in NYC have been from people who were 'stay at home'. It's a bit of an enigma but i suspect when they are staying 'at home' they are actually just not leaving the building but mixing it up with other people that have the same street address (which could be 1000s in a NYC building).
do some simple math of cases or deaths per county, consider that even if you have symptoms that up to this day, if you call in to your nurse hotline they will say unless the symptoms are bad stay at home and self medicate; that means the numerator is much larger than used for *all* of the mortality statistics meaning the death rate is a lot less than all the shown data.
Having shopped many days during the pandemic in chicagoland , only once did i feel 'at risk' when i heard somebody cough about 20' from me. The other 40-60x nope i did not feel at risk; why? I'm not in the inner city and i'm not >65 *and* living in a retirement home.
I'm in the 99% that should not feel at risk for covid 19; does it mean i'm invisible nope in fact when I went to get checked when i thought i had an ear infection (turned out to be acid reflux burned my inner ear), I was tested for cv19 because i had a few overlapping symptoms. (also negative).
It's really annoying seeing so much excess resources being wasted disinfecting literally 100,000,000x the surface areas needed, and blocking off reasonable access to 'the entire world' by again, perhaps 100,000x because people are afraid to be politically incorrect and point out exactly where the virus is. There is *no map* of where the virus is, but the statistics show it is 'inner city', so it's seemingly political which is ludicrous and asinine.
Oh; as far as 'blocking it from getting into the usa'; before we knew it was in the usa it was probably in every single state; there were about 400,000 people that flew from the epicenter of the source into the usa in the months of dec and january, and mostly came through NYC but went to every state in the union. With the long period of incubation and possibly (not shown for sure) transfer before symptoms are visible, it spread everywhere and that's why it 'spread' so fast; it didn't spread it was already there. Mostly just where the population density was highest. (still holding true to this day).
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I agree by whatever means there was widespread infection before we were aware and that the initial goal was to make sure there were enough beds. As we are all aware, the curve is used as a guide to when a phased opening can safely be implemented. That is not to say the curve is accurate or the criteria of the phases are accurate. But using anything else seems to be like buying parts to correct a problem without doing the troubleshooting first.
I also agree that the initial indication of the rate of the spreed was not accurate but as recent a 3-4 weeks ago we have seen areas go form nothing to an alarming level. However it could also be because they didn't have the materials to test or test enough previously. Texas didn't have any focus on testing until the spike was well underway and testing is still insufficient. The President says testing doesn't really matte that much so maybe Texas is doing a great job (sarcasm).
And agree that the views coming from a myriad of sources via so called experts, even those with the appropriate training but without the benefit of all the information the CDC has have caused a great deal of confusion.
I agree that there has been no definitive information about how long the virus lives on what material so I have chosen again to err on the side of caution. There isn't even agreement on how far we need to be from each other to be sure we won't be infected. At first it was 6 feet and recently I read that it can be as far as 30 feet if carried by the wind or even air ducts. Part of the rationale to err on the side of caution are some of the people that have said on TV they are not following the guidelines and got the virus and asked to be interviewed again to say you don't want to get this virus, I made a big mistake, please follow the guidelines.
China did not release timely information for the CDC to have a chance to develop a treatment plan or properly protect those most vulnerable. Even our CDC representative in China was keep out of the loop. The CDC tarnished their credibility with a test that didn't work. The first and following estimates of how many could be infected or die were based on the best information available at the time. Each time the estimates were revised it made it look like they were out to lunch so it is very reasonable to conclude that don't know what they are doing and also is confusing. The end result is we are left to draw our own conclusions as you have. The base line for me is what the infection rate needs to be to control the spread. I believe that when we get over 1.2 people passing on the virus it is not under control.
We have numbers per county in Texas. Some counties and municipalities have set their own standards in line with the 1.2. but others have followed or even opened before the Texas guidelines were in place. Texas leadership is all about protecting the economy so the pedal is to the mental to open everything. Their position is if people die it is an acceptable sacrifice We have a so called phased opening but it is just a timetable rather that measuring the success of a phase before advancing to the next phase.
Cases in Texas are still increasing and my anecdotal estimate is less than 50% are protecting themselves or others. So I don't see reason to be comfortable when I am out. Some people have responded to the confusion by not following any of the guidelines. Others like me believe that it is prudent to err on the side of caution by following the guidelines and then some. We try to buy anything we need online or buy only from businesses that offer curbside pickup. That narrows the risk down to one person that is following the guidelines rather than everyone in the store.
IMO we need to address the problems of keeping economy open and the potential impact if we shouldn't do it very soon. We certainly are capable of doing both at the same time. Our failure to address the problem when we first knew about it is criminal. And with the minimizing done by our leadership and openly countering CDC input has had a big impact on the perception of the severity of the situation and how many Americans follow the guidelines.