Originally Posted by bcredliner

I agree by whatever means there was widespread infection before we were aware and that the initial goal was to make sure there were enough beds. As we are all aware, the curve is used as a guide to when a phased opening can safely be implemented. That is not to say the curve is accurate or the criteria of the phases are accurate. But using anything else seems to be like buying parts to correct a problem without doing the troubleshooting first.

I also agree that the initial indication of the rate of the spreed was not accurate but as recent a 3-4 weeks ago we have seen areas go form nothing to an alarming level. However it could also be because they didn't have the materials to test or test enough previously. Texas didn't have any focus on testing until the spike was well underway and testing is still insufficient. The President says testing doesn't really matte that much so maybe Texas is doing a great job (sarcasm).

And agree that the views coming from a myriad of sources via so called experts, even those with the appropriate training but without the benefit of all the information the CDC has have caused a great deal of confusion.

I agree that there has been no definitive information about how long the virus lives on what material so I have chosen again to err on the side of caution. There isn't even agreement on how far we need to be from each other to be sure we won't be infected. At first it was 6 feet and recently I read that it can be as far as 30 feet if carried by the wind or even air ducts. Part of the rationale to err on the side of caution are some of the people that have said on TV they are not following the guidelines and got the virus and asked to be interviewed again to say you don't want to get this virus, I made a big mistake, please follow the guidelines.


China did not release timely information for the CDC to have a chance to develop a treatment plan or properly protect those most vulnerable. Even our CDC representative in China was keep out of the loop. The CDC tarnished their credibility with a test that didn't work. The first and following estimates of how many could be infected or die were based on the best information available at the time. Each time the estimates were revised it made it look like they were out to lunch so it is very reasonable to conclude that don't know what they are doing and also is confusing. The end result is we are left to draw our own conclusions as you have. The base line for me is what the infection rate needs to be to control the spread. I believe that when we get over 1.2 people passing on the virus it is not under control.

We have numbers per county in Texas. Some counties and municipalities have set their own standards in line with the 1.2. but others have followed or even opened before the Texas guidelines were in place. Texas leadership is all about protecting the economy so the pedal is to the mental to open everything. Their position is if people die it is an acceptable sacrifice We have a so called phased opening but it is just a timetable rather that measuring the success of a phase before advancing to the next phase.

Cases in Texas are still increasing and my anecdotal estimate is less than 50% are protecting themselves or others. So I don't see reason to be comfortable when I am out. Some people have responded to the confusion by not following any of the guidelines. Others like me believe that it is prudent to err on the side of caution by following the guidelines and then some. We try to buy anything we need online or buy only from businesses that offer curbside pickup. That narrows the risk down to one person that is following the guidelines rather than everyone in the store.


IMO we need to address the problems of keeping economy open and the potential impact if we shouldn't do it very soon. We certainly are capable of doing both at the same time. Our failure to address the problem when we first knew about it is criminal. And with the minimizing done by our leadership and openly countering CDC input has had a big impact on the perception of the severity of the situation and how many Americans follow the guidelines.