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Old 05-23-2020, 03:29 PM
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bcredliner bcredliner is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrewwynn View Post


They may 16 data is on CDC site for Nationwide hospitalization.

1500 beds out of 925,000

1500/925000=0.2%

So 1/5 of 1% of the USA's hospital beds are in use treating covid 19.

We over shot the goal of not going over 100 of capacity by a factor of 50-60.

Of course *some hospitals were completely packed but they have these magical boxes with wheels and engines.

Point is back to my original comments on yr his thread. We can handle the cases that come. We probably do not need to wear masks outside the house and especially not if you aren't the one infected.

Time machine history will show the entire lockdown was not needed at all. Isolate the high risk and use PPD like crazy when interfacing with high risk people and mandate for sick people.

I am in Chicago again, I will probably have to go to a couple stores and if they didn't require It I would not feel at risk not wearing a mask as long as I could keep a few feet from people maybe hold my breath once in a while when I'm close like handing a cc or the item I'm buying to the cashier.

I will use hand sanitizer when I get to my car. Common sense.

I'm not sure exactly where the common sense went, although one therory is that another much deadlier germ was piggy backed on cv19. Ebola level of deadly and until they were sure it wasn't, they locked down the country.

I'm a facts person. The facts of today do not warrant closure of the vast majority of buisnesses including restaurants and the 6' rule which sadly is likely here to stay has not been backed with science.

I've read of some very good studies in the works getting healthy young volunteers to subject themselves to the virus to answer these questions like can you catch it from 3' away from talking not coughing etc.

The death rates are only so high when the high risk are included. It will be less enough when those people are isolated, catching cv19 will be a common thing like a cold, treated as such. Hopefully they will get a vaccine that at least helps like with the flu so that can be an equivalent to isolation.

Without the flu vaccine, I have no doubt it would be as deadly as cv19. Also medicine will catch up. Docs were killing people with ventilators because they weren't the correct treatment they needed the likes of an iron lung. If cv19 is here to stay next year will be like a flu season. We will have a flu season and a CV season.

People will freak out when somebody sneezes but It won't shut down the entire GM plant when one person gets CV.

There is a 20 lag from cases to death on average, so it takes three weeks to confirm that a case trend is rising or falling but most states are dropping and the ones that opened up and aren't dropping the death rate is staying the same. That equates to a minor adjustment in the curves but as long as it doesn't start a new exponential growth it will be in the anti-log asymptote zone of the curve and will resolve itself.

A major factor and why I say with confidence we are in the final stages is: 1) after researching the data from 15 or so pandemic class viruses, 100% follow the logistics curve and I'm going with the odds
2) viruses tend so self limit because the sick people stay in bed, that greatly limits the ability of the virus to find a new host
3) many cases of a "tie" where the host dies. If an estimated 10,000 infected people kicked this thing off, 100,000 dying is a huge step in squashing the thing out of existence.

That's an estimated 210,000 people that won't contact cv from them. They all deserve a posthumous pueoly heart and I'm serious. They "gave their life to save another". They most likely didn't do It voluntarily but that still is the reality.

Now jump in the hot tub with me and let's explore March 2020 with 20/20 hindsight.

The world shut down for one primary reason: to make sure the hospitals could keep up.

The closest we came was maybe 0.432% of all the hospital beds. (let's say some of the numbers are wrong and multiply by 10: we get to FOUR percent!

The facts that back this logic are the almost completely empty beds on all but one of the field hospitals that we spent $660 million building.

They treated maybe 3000-5000 patients including at the Jarvis in NYC the ONLY one that was really ever used.

So we spent "a small house" (132,000) for EVERY patient treated at a field hospital.

These are extremely important facts that are kept from the public. How many of you have seen this info?

The goalposts have been moved so many times we can't see them.

The original 15 day chill pill will be shown to be the perfect amount of time to make a tiny course correction and save the USA economy and 20,000,000 jobs. We can't unwind and do it over but we can be "not ignorant" if we get bitch slapped by the thing again.
I agree, in hindsight, the estimates were grossly over estimated and the number of beds was certainly one of the prime reasons for the shutdown. But closing the country also considered the best way to minimize the cases since it was unknown how widespread the virus was at that time. There was no way to know what states could stay open or should close. Both were based on the success or failure of other countries trying to slow infections to get to the level of control. I don't think the number of beds nationwide was the issue. Rather it was the number of beds that would be needed in individual hot spots. That said, NY as bad as it got, didn't need that many more beds then they already had and that was only for a short period of time.

The 6 ft. distance came from historical measurements of normal non virus travel of saliva from talking, yelling, coughing and sneezing. It is probably based on the worst case of those criteria and some add on to be safe because there is no way to know which one will happen.

I agree that those that die reduce the number that will be infected. However, depending on how many people 1 person infects deaths that might not make much difference. If one person infects only 1 person there is a direct correlation but if one person infects two or more the number of infections will continue to grow and so will deaths The more people one person infects the faster the rate of infection, the higher point the curve will reach and the longer it will can take to get to infections to a level that can be controlled.

IMO, the best way to eliminate an economic impact, minimal safety measures and individual hardships is if we have an early warning system (supposed to be WHO and CDC) and we quickly stop all travel in and out of the county, immediately implement broad based testing and contact tracing and quarantining in large cities that are primary ports of entry for international travelers and protect or stop at least the large gathering places like stadiums and known high risk enclosures like nursing homes and prisons. Also, get our scientist on the ground in infected countries to help minimize the level of infection and doing the best that can be done to stop the virus spread to other areas and countries.

Preventative maintenance.Troubleshoot, Diagnose, Overnight any parts not on hand---fix it right the first time.
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Last edited by bcredliner; 05-23-2020 at 05:23 PM.

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