Originally Posted by AVB-AMG

Maruzo:

I was surprised as anyone about how the mid-term elections have turned out. Like many folks, I had prepared myself to hear that the Republicans would ride a “Red Wave” and make significant gains in the House and possibly even take control of the Senate, capitalizing on voters’ concerns over inflation and the economy and an unpopular president. The fact that it did not materialize is amazing and perplexing. Now, one week later, after reading and speaking to family, friends and co-workers and listening to various political talking heads, here are a number of key observations and speculations on my part:

1. There is no evidence of any significant examples of voter fraud
There are (currently, at least), no widespread allegations of fraud or illegitimacy, despite many close races. Interestingly, the candidates who made the 2020 election denial their platform lost decisively.

2. The abortion issue was a key motivating factor
When the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade they woke up a large segment of American society that had taken their bodily freedoms for granted. The US Supreme Court Dobbs ruling gave Democrats a tool to reach moderates and independents, particularly suburban women, who’d rejected the Republican Party in 2020 but were beginning to drift back toward the GOP because of concerns about inflation and crime.I believe that Republicans and especially conservative evangelical Christians, had no idea of the devastating unintended consequences of how that decision was going to motivate so many women, including many Republican women, (polling indicated around 25% of all women said it was their top priority in this election), and younger voters who usually have skipped midterm elections, to vote for Democrats and to save their right to choose for themselves and not leave it up to each state to set different laws. All five states that featured a ballot referendum on questions of abortion saw the pro-choice side win. It seems reasonable to assume that in those states alone, Democrats received a potentially race-deciding boost from the abortion referendum. Even in the 45 states where abortion was not on the ballot, it was clearly the issue that carried the day for many vulnerable Democrats. It was also the dominant motivator for moderates and independents to stick with an unpopular president. The story of this election was that millions of voters who registered dissatisfaction with Biden and his economic policies voted for his party anyway. Why? Because they were more concerned about Republicans’ approach to abortion than Democrats’ approach to inflation…

3. Really bad candidates turn off voters
Unqualified candidates and/or those with very extreme stated views do not attract enough voters to win. This year, the Republicans had an inordinate amount of really bad candidates, (Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, Doug Mastriano, Tudor Dixon, etc. Too many GOP nominees proved to be particularly unpalatable, especially if they hold fringe worldviews, were 2020 election legitimacy or were to strongly associated with Evangelical Christian nationalism. Aside from his critics, Biden’s speech on democracy last week was, in retrospect, correct in highlighting many voters’ priorities. Voters are worried about democracy’s survival and Biden’s distinction between MAGA Republicans and the rest of the GOP obviously worked with some, including Republicans. Voters who somewhat disapproved of Biden’s record nonetheless voted for the Democrats when the alternative was a bat-shit crazy MAGA candidate.

4. Voters prefer “out of touch” to “out of their mind.”
For Republicans, a central charge against Democrats throughout 2022 has been that Biden and his party are out of touch with ordinary Americans. A distilled version of the argument went like this: Democrats, the party of social and cultural elites, cannot relate to the economic pain being felt by millions of working people. That message penetrated—to a point. The simplest explanation is that although many of these voters think Democrats are out of touch, they also think many of the Republican candidates are out of their minds. And it seems they prefer the former to the latter. I think that a lot of these people wanted to vote for a Republican, but that they just did not want to vote for the individual Republican who was running in their district and/or state. Plenty of voters are worried about unchecked progressivism on the left, but they’re even more worried about unchecked extremism on the right.

5. Trumpism is toxic to the middle of the electorate.
Here’s the scenario many of us were expecting on Election Day: The president, still the de facto head of his party, despite a growing chorus of questions about his age and competence, suffers a series of humiliating defeats that reflect the weakness of his personal brand and cast doubt on his ability to lead the party moving forward. And that’s precisely what happened—to the former president….
One exit poll was quite telling. In each of the three states that saw major Democratic victories: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, 25-30% voters said they had cast their vote in opposition to Trump. These are voters in three of the nation’s most polarized battleground states, who acknowledged that they were motivated by the idea of defeating someone who was not even on the ballot and who currently holds no office. Maybe it should not come as real surprise since in these states, as well as nationally, the only thing worse than Biden’s approval rating was Trump’s.

So, where do we go from here…? I am ready to move on from both Trump and Biden and hope that both will ultimately decide not to run for president in 2024. Regardless of your political preferences, I believe that most of us feel that it is time to let some new, fresh faces step up and pursue the role of POTUS. Time will tell….