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Originally Posted by skarletknite
in the nfl - and college they have statisticians working for the coaching staff. they are often called "quality control" coaches. the probability of converting a 4th and 15 in your own territiry, on the road, is simply less than the probability of punting and playing defense. no one would be asking this question if the eagles defense simply stopped the saints from running the ball. everyone knew exactly what they were going to do - run-the-ball. AND, the eagles had 2 timeouts left. that is a world of time with such a potent offense. all they had to do was stop deuce mcallister.
the eagles loss had NOTHING to do with punting on 4th and 15.
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Reid's decision was wrong and lost them a chance to win the game. They went for it on 4th and 10, so why not 4th and 15? The defense hadn't stopped Deuce all day. If the Saints gave him the ball more, he woulda ran for 200 yds+. I couldn't believe a pass happy coach like Reid didn't go for it b/c they made a lot of big plays throughout the year. also, you don't know that the Saints woulda just run the ball although conventional wisdom would lead you believe they would have. Sean Payton's team led the NFL in passing and may have called for a pass if necessary. They also knew that a 1st down puts it out of reach. Reid even second guessed himself afterwards in the press conference. He'll be crucified all offseason for that decision with many calling for his head.