I think that there will be a market for a reasonably-sized SUV like the X5, but I expect the prices of large SUVs and pickups with gasoline engines to drop. Hummer sales seem to have taken a hit over the past months....

What I think will happen is that the current engine technology (all makes) will become obsolete very quickly. We have seen the difference valvetronic technology makes on BMW engines. There will be an even bigger difference when direct injection arrives on the BMW I6 and V8 in a couple of years. At that point, a 4.4 that is two generations back in engine technology (pre-valvetronic) is likely to be worth less than a 3.0. It won't just be the fuel consumption, it will also be the message that the V8 badge sends. Taxing it more wouldn't hurt either. Those that want the larger engine will pay to have the newer technology.

While direct injection doesn't require ultra-low sulphur fuel (unless it is a stratified charge engine with a special catalyst) the introduction of more direct injection options will be concurrent with the legislated availability of ultra-low sulphur fuel, similar to what will happen with diesels in North America.

Just my $0.02 crystal ball. Contrary predictions welcome.

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2007 X3 3.0si, 6 MT, Premium, White

Retired:
2008 535i, 6 MT, M Sport, Premium, Space Grey
2003 X5 3.0 Steptronic, Premium, Titanium Silver
2002 325xi 5 MT, Steel Grey
2004 Z4 3.0 Premium, Sport, SMG, Maldives Blue