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My 50 Cents Worth...Loooonnng
I've read nearly everything I could get my hands/eyes on the past weekish, on this situation;
I like to think I'm pretty smart and well informed but the yin & yang commentary, from even
reputable news sources and analyses, makes my head spin. Some random thoughts, strictly
from the Fwiw Dept. and, only imo:
-If the Lil'3 or, some combo of that group receives "nothing", they probably will go under or,
so close to "under" that their demise, at least for the US, will have considerable and long term impact.
-Good articles tout "pre-pack BK"; but with the intertwined suppliers and the truckloads of each company's
commercial paper/bonds floating around or worse, imbedded in banks and financial institutions, it Aint' Gonna Happen...
a pre-pack BK, that is.
-Good articles tout GSB, a gov't sponsored Chapter 11 BK. Similar in many ways to the support the barbarian run
"banks" and credit joints are getting, though almost all of them have escaped BK. Possibly...
Even that won't be easy, nor would a Commercial BK...the credit lines and liquidity absolutely needs to be
"propped up" for BK to work or have any chance of being effective. Some gov't monies intervention could be
that "prop" effect. Delphi for example, has been in BK for 4 fookin years already.
-The ~$75 an hr bandied about is not what a "line worker" makes; that number is the average which includes
more skilled labor, tool & die, etc, and also includes about a 33% bundle of benefits an "hour", which they are
not getting in their weekly paycheck. The Import Gang averages ~$47 bucks inc. their different and less substantial
"benefits". Overpaid, probably...delusional as to their "rights", yes. Should we send them all to the curb, probably
not.
-The Legacy Costs, long term med/pension, etc., are enormous for the Lil'3. That cost impact is hard to define
"per car", but it is akin to a smaller version of our gov't spending: agree to almost anything and hope there is some
way to pay it off/back in the future. If BK or, at worst, "Goodbye", the Fed Gov't will get stuck with picking up some
portion of that legacy cost, (pension and increased impact on health coverage), so some Gov't dough is "now" or,
more later, take your pick.
-Approx. half of the US Lil'3 worker population resides in Mich.; if the Lil'3 go toes up, that poor state will look
like North Dakota, minus the scenic farms and, may end up a war zone.
-The Stuffed Suits flying in on private. jets was a dumb move, but the "banks/financials" that have already gotten
~$400 Billion with very few strings, are not making their $5000 buck an hour guys ride the subways or fly tourista...
-The Lil'3 played the game, supported by the gov't, vis a vis the no mpg rules on trucks/big SUVs, and when the tide
turned, they were SOL. But, the mpg mandates did not affect all those kinds of vehicles. Mandating more mpg for the
Lil'3, as part of a future deal is like telling the homeless to brush daily and increase their workout regime...stupid and
moot, imo.
-The Lil'3 or 2, going under with a wave from the citizens, will involve and impact suppliers, IT, banking, ancillary
companies, a host of 3rd, 4th and 5th parties and more "working" people than any of us can imagine at this point.
I suspect that leaving it/the situ, and the potential fix or solution to Congress or even Congress and the Treasury,
is like hoping the 6th grade class will solve your town's issues...what a fookin mess.
-Send the CEOs packing, stir up the "Boards", force them to reveal real, solid, sea change Plans, throw them some
dough with the usual Landry list of covenants and strings, but keep some figment of this manufacturing class going.
The econ and the consumer is going to wring the Lil'3 economic necks as it stands now; but, to send them off to Valhalla
is short sighted and will exacerbate the economic pain this country faces for the next few years.
Time is up and ya'll tired of reading by now...
Good Luck to All. We shall need it, regardless of what any of you/us "do" for a living or how insulated any of us
think we are.
GL,mD
Last edited by motordavid; 11-24-2008 at 08:19 PM.
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