I agree, these are (very) different times and that it's going to take longer and be tougher to climb out of this hole.
My guess is 24+ months till we begin to see a few qtrs increasing growth numbers for GDP and at least that long before housing inventories nationally start to shrink making the prices stabilize.
However, by then our dollar will be so devalued we will still have a pretty big set of macro economic issues impacting investors. Big government isn't the answer in my opinion - it's only going waste money and drive the value of the dollar down as borrowing (printing more money) increases.
When is the right time to buy back in on the equity front? Warren Buffett already staked some back in and we have all seen some amazing prices out there.
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Originally Posted by motordavid
No prob on the patience...~68% cash/cash equiv., 32% equities; it's just that those equities have
gotten stopped out, (and gone to cash), and the remaining equities I really like have eroded.
Having lived through several down times, I'm not jumping out the window, but those previous times
were certainly "different" in at least 2 aspects, imo:
-No previous down time was as far reaching, intertwined and deep as this one.
-During those previous soft periods, Veronica and I were making pretty substantial dough, living small,
driving co. cars, exp acct., etc., and packing it away.
Poking & dipping into the Retired Bum/"fixed income" piggy bank during these times is not fun to do or
watch happen.
Meanwhile, there is a near daily report of another convoluted "investment" mess and another crook or two
that gets pinched. And, Joe Shopper is sitting on his thin wallet as well he should. It will be a long arduous
climb out of this hole, I suspect.
GL,mD
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