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My salesman is a good friend and tells me that as a dealer they are making more money and having more success right now CPO'ing customer vehicles and putting them back in the same vehicle at lease end then thay are selling new units. BMW, like most manufactureres, is having trouble due to the high residual values on lease vehicles that are all being turned in.
You've already been to KBB, try edmunds, nada, and ebay and see what they are really selling for (go to completed sales in ebay). My thought is they are going to show you a payment near what your lease was with a longer warranty and maybe a service plan. I have not had sucess for years in negotiating a buyout of anything other than what was stated on the lease, but it is a new world out htere right now. I bought one of my leased vehicles, and I took a beating on the car (Audi A8).
I know for a while BMW leases covered tires (for like $50 ech) on leases so maybe the new tires isn't much of a throw in. I'd ask them to throw in the extended maintenance plan (but i don't think it's the same as the original plan) as well.... can't hurt to ask...good luck!
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The journey is the destination....
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