I just negotiated a deal on 2010 335XI with ~$500 over the invoice, and then additional $2500 credit. So it came out to be ~$2000 BELOW invoice at the end.

I say if you can get the price within $1000 over the invoice (before applying the holiday credit), consider it as a very good deal. YMMV if you are in NYC/Brooklyn/Queens - there is less competition. Here in NJ I have 4 BMW dealerships within 30 min drive from my house, so I shopped around and put them against each other on both of the price of new car and the trade-in. However, remember that you can always sell your trade-in privately, so make sure the deal is right on the new car's price.

Keep in mind that you still need to pay your local sales tax on $2500, so dont get surprised

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His : 2013 X5 3.5d Deep Sea Blue/Black/Aluminum with ALL packages, 20" 214"s, running boards, Adaptive Drive, Spare Tire, BMW Apps
On Order : 2016 X3 3.5 MSport Silver/Mocha with DHP, CW, Prem, Tech, DA, Lighting

Hers : 2015 328xi MSport Silver/Red

Prior:
2008 X5 4.8
2011 X5 3.5d
2010 335 xDrive
2013 335 xDrive