Not exactly the ammo debate, but an interesting lil'snippet from Thursday's
WSJ on the lessening gun demand bubble...or, it may simply be the economy.
Nice posters and arms, by the bye!
GL,mD
A Farewell to Arms
By
JOHN JANNARONE
Gun makers have so far avoided a duel with the president. That won't keep their investors out of the line of fire.
Heard on the Street: Gun Manufacturers Shot Out
1:57 Heard on the Street columnist John Jannarone explains to Simon Constable why he thinks small-arms sales may have peaked. Plus, how to profit with stock in Smith & Wesson and Sturm, Ruger & Co.
Firearms demand surged over the past year, as Americans anticipated an Obama administration crackdown on gun ownership.
Sturm, Ruger, for instance, saw gun sales rise 74% in the first nine months of 2009, compared with an average of flat sales in the same period over the previous eight years.
No changes to gun rules have materialized. The gun boom has faded.
Smith & Wesson Holding's gun-order backlog fell 46% in the October quarter from the previous three months, to $96 million, with 30% of the decline because of order cancellations. The company expects gun sales to fall about 20% in the current quarter from the last. In November, background checks for purchases of guns and explosives fell 20% from a year earlier, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.
Smith & Wesson's stock, which has slipped since the company reported earnings two weeks ago, trades at about 10 times calendar 2010 consensus earnings. While Sturm, Ruger is also down, it is at 12.5 times, according to Jim Barrett of C.L. King. Both are far pricier on a multiple of average earnings over the past several years.
Sturm, Ruger may be more vulnerable to a consumer pullback. Smith & Wesson expects 35% of its revenue from police and other professional sales this quarter, but Sturm, Ruger sells a greater proportion to individuals, Mr. Barrett says. Smith & Wesson has also announced new product discounts, which Sturm, Ruger can't likely ignore. With so much gun demand already pulled forward, investors should cut their exposure.
Gun Investors, Duck - WSJ.com