I am not suggesting that the regime changes are not driven by the demonstrations. I think they clearly are.

It is just that if the demonstrations get resolved by the military deciding to reverse their position and support change (as in Egypt) then the outcome of that change isn't necessarily democracy. In the short term it is a military dictatorship. It may turn into free elections. Or it may not.

And if the military doesn't act in a united fashion, (as in Libya) then the outcome of that change is likely civil war.

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