Helluva read, JCL...thanks. I must admit I skimmed some of the 59+ pages, as only someone in the biz, or a shut in, would pour over all the data...
I don't disagree on electric/battery powered/hybrid cars coming of age, (and the DB guys certainly spent most of the space on that 'support theme'); in my post above I was not being critical of the electric car, et al, developments, but my point is that most of the US car buyers are not running out to buy one, soon. And, most of the US car owners are not tossing their car(s) tomorrow or next year, for one, imo.
Add in the source of that 'electric power', here in the US, (coal 45%, nat gas 23%+, nuke 20%, etc.), and while non-gas cars may support some oil usage decrease, that electric power generation comes from 'somewhere'...
mostly coal and gas and, some nuke, in the US. Coal plants are under the gun emissions/improvement-wise, a new US nuke plant has not broken ground in over two decades, and natural gas seems to be the semi-good stuff no one really loves.
One of the umptyseven graphs, with projections, seems to tell the tale on current and projected consumption: most of the 'us', country-wise, will keep the lid on, so to speak, while China increases consumption considerably...fwiw.
Jumping ahead, post reading-wise, I'm with X5 rolls, in regards to his point(s) on making a long jump for national industry coupled with top level practical research getting us/NA to the next level. The last possible and least effective method, imo, is taxing the hell out of 'petroleum', letting those increased taxes slide into the general fund of gov't, and then hoping some litany of 'gov't programs' is going to lead the way...
Gov't has not had a successful inventive, money saving, energy saving program in my memory.
Increased taxes to guide or change or adjust social/econ behavior is not the way to proceed these days; it simply taxes JoeSixPack, (and 200 million others in the US), effects no real improvements, and the money is literally pissed away in 'the gov't'.
Didn't mean to get on my anti-gov't rant, but $4-5 buck gas is only going to pinch many in the short-medium term and, other than its speculative and irrational 'support base', it will do little to spur real adjustment in our energy practices and usage.
GL, mD
Quote:
Originally Posted by JCL
I found this report interesting. Paul Sankey of Deutsche Bank - The End of the Oil Age, 2011 and Beyond. An analysis of supply and demand, key factors, and lots of projections. Recommended reading for those that haven't seen it.
What I found interesting was the strong expectation of electric vehicles becoming a factor.
The End of the Oil Age - 2011 and Beyond: A Reality Check
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