It is illogical to purchase a warranty and expect to "come out ahead". Sure, a few people will, but far more will not do so. The warranty companies make a profit on these insurance policies, on average, and they aren't in the business of losing money.

The reason to buy an extended warranty is for peace of mind. You should expect to pay for the benefit of that peace of mind, and not having surprises, and that is fair. If a major failure would leave you unable to repair the car due to cash flow, then you are a good candidate for an extended warranty. If you don't like to budget for unplanned breakdowns, then you are a good candidate. But if you can generally afford to fix what breaks, and particularly if you do any DIY, then self-insure and just put the money aside in a rainy day fund. Enjoy the car.

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2007 X3 3.0si, 6 MT, Premium, White

Retired:
2008 535i, 6 MT, M Sport, Premium, Space Grey
2003 X5 3.0 Steptronic, Premium, Titanium Silver
2002 325xi 5 MT, Steel Grey
2004 Z4 3.0 Premium, Sport, SMG, Maldives Blue