Tough to say without more details on the various options. You've mentioned that one does not have tech package (which I view as a negative).

Another thing to keep in mind is that you can buy the "Extended Vehicle Protection" before the original warranty expires too. My 2008 X5 4.8i has required so little repair that I nearly didn't buy the extended warranty but decided to do it for peace of mind for at least another 3 years...