I thought I better close this up with the final answer...

Yes, it was the carrier. In the Northeast this week, the temps were below freezing pretty much all week, and I was tired of climbing over the console. So it ended up costing me $338 to have the carrier replaced by an local Indy (German Car Shoppe in Edison NJ). 2 hours of labor was $196 + $120 for the OEM part + tax.

I've done window regulators on my E46 and this looked about the same, but candidly it was just to darn cold out to start playing BMW mechanic in January.

Thanks for the feedback, and the tips..

ed

__________________
His - 2011 X5 3.5i
Hers -2004 325 CiC