X5 Purchase Decision - New, Used or Wait?

[caseyschulte]

Hi,

Another newbie here considering joining your ranks - I was hoping that you folks wouldn't mind sharing your insights on my purchase decision. Here's my situation - my wife and I are expecting our first child in June, and my wife wants to trade in her 323i for something with a bit more room. We both really like the current X5 and, like many, are fairly nervous about what the new X5 will look like (considering our feelings about each of the new 7,5 and Z4). We're currently considering buying a new 2006 X5 4.4i or a 2005 "executive demo" 4.4i, and are looking for something moderately equipped (i.e we don't necessarily want the extra $5k in options that often show up in fully loaded X5s).

In terms of the new car, we've been looking for the following - sterling gray / black X5 4.4i with premium, sports and cold weather packages + 19" wheels (MSRP right around $60k). The local dealers here in Northern California finally seem to be budging a bit more - I've been quoted a price of $1500 over invoice, which in my experience is a pretty good deal in this area. I suspect that this may stem from an urge to start clearing inventory although this is by no means a car that will be sitting on the lot come August / September.

As I alluded above, we've also been considering buying an executive demo - e.g. we've found a 2005 with sports and premium packages + 19" wheels with only 10k miles for just over $45,000. I haven't seen the car in person because it's down near LA, but it seems like an option worth considering since a new car probably won't stay new for long after the baby comes + someone else will be taking the initial depreciation hit.

A few specific questions -

* When, if ever, will more aggressive incentives kick in on the new X5s? At that point, will inventory be fairly thin on popular colors / reasonably optioned X5s?
* Any one have experience with executive demos? Do they tend to be in pretty good shape? Is there enough volume to find what you're looking for option-wise, or is it pretty much hit or miss?
* In terms of depreciation, do you think the old style X5s will take a big hit when the new X5s come out, or is this already being reflected in the price of new and used X5s in the market?
* Is there any difference in the reliability of the '05s and '06s, or were most of the kinks worked out by '05?
* Which approach do you think makes more sense - negotiate a price within $1k of invoice on a new X5 or see what I can find in an executive demo (acknowledging that I basically want what I want in the way of options)?

Thanks in advance for sharing your wisdom on this topic.