Home Forums Articles How To's FAQ Register
Go Back   Xoutpost.com > Off-topic > The Lounge
Arnott
User Name
Password
Member List Premier Membership Today's Posts New Posts

Xoutpost server transfer and maintenance is occurring....
Xoutpost is currently undergoing a planned server migration.... stay tuned for new developments.... sincerely, the management


Closed Thread
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-26-2006, 06:35 PM
SPAMMER
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 41
jeffreyd is on a distinguished road
2 **HOT** Stock Tips

Due to B-Line's rude comments I am taking this down. I guess it doesn't mean anything that I'm 21 years old, made over $300k in the market since age 18, and have been featured in the Wall Street Journal under 'youth success stories.' What was I thinking trying to give this board 2 'inside' stock tips? Unreal!!

Last edited by jeffreyd; 10-26-2006 at 07:10 PM.
  #2  
Old 10-26-2006, 06:51 PM
B-Line's Avatar
*** Is this thing on? ***
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Los Angeles...
Posts: 4,460
B-Line is on a distinguished road
I can't speak for anyone else on this board so I will speak for myself.

Please don't bother me with your unsubstantiated stock tips.. It's enough that i get them in my email about 10 times a day along with erection medication, breast enlargement, best health, free porn... I don't need it here also.

So keep your spam to yourself.. Especailly if your not going to back up your stock tip with any useful information that any of us care about..

B
__________________
----------------------------------------------------------

"When two people agree on everything, one of them is not necessary" - Arliss
  #3  
Old 10-26-2006, 07:06 PM
SPAMMER
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 41
jeffreyd is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by B-Line
I can't speak for anyone else on this board so I will speak for myself.

Please don't bother me with your unsubstantiated stock tips.. It's enough that i get them in my email about 10 times a day along with erection medication, breast enlargement, best health, free porn... I don't need it here also.

So keep your spam to yourself.. Especailly if your not going to back up your stock tip with any useful information that any of us care about..

B

WTF? And here I thought this board was suppose to be friendly.
  #4  
Old 10-26-2006, 07:22 PM
B-Line's Avatar
*** Is this thing on? ***
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Los Angeles...
Posts: 4,460
B-Line is on a distinguished road
Jeffrey,

I get inside stock tips about 10 times a day.. And I could care less how much money you have made. Telling me that your 21 just shows me that you have not seen any long term trends in the market. Furthermore, do you think I would ever invest with a 21 year old stock broker?? Even a broken clock is correct twice a day. There was a time in the market, you were still in Jr. High but the rest of us were invested, where you could throw a dart at a board with tech stocks and your pick could make that kind of money in a few months.

My point is, if your going to give stock advice, I would advise you back it up a little with more than just the name and ticker of a stock.

I want to know why you recommend a stock. Is it growth or value? What is the product they are coming out with that will cause 150% growth in 3 months. Who are the CEO's of the company. What is the debt to asset ratio? What does the research from companies like Sanford Bernstein have to say about them?

Or maybe you can just play your flute and people on this board will just invest blindly with your stock tips..

btw, I sell time shares, since you are so successful and wealthy, it would be a good investment for you to buy into one. I have a great one in Aruba that you would love. Interested?

B
__________________
----------------------------------------------------------

"When two people agree on everything, one of them is not necessary" - Arliss
  #5  
Old 10-26-2006, 07:29 PM
B-Line's Avatar
*** Is this thing on? ***
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Los Angeles...
Posts: 4,460
B-Line is on a distinguished road
And I also can't help but think that your "FAVOR" in giving us your stock tip does not directly benefit you! That you are trying to incite some sort of buying frenzy for a client or position that you or your company has.

And, your "INSIDE" stock tip is a farse. I can't believe you even call a stock tip that you spam to a car enthusiast message board an "INSIDE" stock tip. There is nothing "INSIDE" about it. This is a public board you genius.

B

btw, how's that boiler room?
__________________
----------------------------------------------------------

"When two people agree on everything, one of them is not necessary" - Arliss
  #6  
Old 10-26-2006, 07:40 PM
SPAMMER
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 41
jeffreyd is on a distinguished road
GOLDEN PHOENIX MINERALS
A lower risk-higher return way to play molybdenum.

Traded OTCBB: GPXM

Business: Gold & molybdenum mineral exploration and production.
Price 10/26/06: $0.35
Shares Outstanding: 147.9 Million
Market Capitalization: $53.2 Million
Progress Rating: "B"
Telephone: 775-853-4919
WebSite: www.golden-phoenix.com

Molybdenum. Of all the names of metals, it is without a doubt the hardest name to pronounce. Molybdenum is a little-known metal compared to the precious metals and common base metals like copper, lead and zinc. But it is an important metal because it is used as a steel alloy for hardening and other properties required in the modern day. Molybdenum is most often a byproduct metal. It is often mined with copper. Northern Dynasty's copper-gold porphyry deposit, the Pebble Deposit, has well over 1 billion pounds of molybdenum. There is lots of molybdenum to be mined. The giant Climax Mine in Colorado could be opened again. But all these major sources of molybdenum required huge amounts of capital and history shows that major capital expenditures in major deposits frequently do not work out well over the longer term. Not only are capital costs enormous for these huge projects, but years later when a project comes onstream, market conditions may have turned bearish, thus leading to very unattractive returns.

But for now, we just don't have enough molybdenum to meet surging demands growing out of rapid global economic growth. Moly demand is growing about 4% per year, or roughly 20 million pounds, while several of the larger producers having been reducing their output by an equivalent amount. So as always happens when a commodity is in short supply, its price rises fairly dramatically. Molybdenum hit $40 per pound in the summer of 2005. It has since come back to $28.50 but that is still an appealing price to make the economics of a primary molybdenum mine potentially attractive.

One junior molybdenum mining company that has received considerable attention has been Adanac Moly Corp. (TSX-AUA) Adanac has completed a feasibility study on its Ruby Creek Property located in a remote area of northern B.C. To be sure, this is potentially a world-class molybdenum mine. Using a 0.04% molybdenum cutoff, the feasibility study outlined 206.4 million tonnes grading 0.063% molybdenum and thus containing 285.6 million pounds of molybdenum. The feasibility study assumed a price for molybdenum of $22 at time production begins sometime in the future, perhaps four or five years from now if everything goes according to schedule which it seldom does for major projects like this. But as more molybdenum comes on stream from around the world, the assumption was for a decline in price to $8 over a 22-year life of mine. With the average cost of production assumed to be $5.58 per pound, the economics for the project works out well. A three-year payback of capital and an IRR of 25.63% was calculated. And using an 8% discounted net present value, the project would net a value of $250.4 million dollars.

Those are very good numbers if you buy the assumptions provided in the feasibility study. They may be right on the money. But then if and when the project commences production four or five down the road, the markets for molybdenum may be very different from those envisioned in the feasibility study, reasonable as they may appear to be now. Between now and then, this company is going to need to come up with an estimated $434.4 million of capital to build the project. Moreover, aside from roads and a relatively easy access to the project, there is virtually no infrastructure at the Ruby Creek Mine. Without studying the feasibility study closely we are assuming infrastructure costs are built into the $434.4 million of cap expense for the project.

How will a small mining company like Adanac fund $434.4 million?

Whatever method it selects, it will require considerable dilution of shareholder interest in one form or another. No doubt some of that dilution is already factored into the current share price, although we would not bet all of it is just yet. But in the end, one or a combination of the following funding sources will be required if Ruby Creek is to get into production.: (1) issuance of shares; (2) issuance of large-scale debt; (3) joint venture with a major. In fact we would expect if this project is ever put into production, a major will be involved and that company will also load the project with debt.

Ashdown (GPXM) Looks Substantially Safer than Ruby Creek

Good as the Ruby Creek Property may be, in my view (admittedly not an unbiased view because I have a sizable holding of GPXM) a lower risk/higher return way to play molybdenum is through Golden Phoenix Minerals, Inc. which is about to commence molybdenum production from its exceptionally high-grade Ashdown Molybdenum Mine in Nevada. If all goes well the company should be shipping a 50% molybdenum concentrate as early as the end of this month.

Ashdown is a completely different project from Ruby Creek. Let me name the ways:

1. Ruby Creek is a very large but low-grade porphyry deposit. Ashdown is an extremely high-grade vein deposit, the limits of which are yet unknown. The average grade of Ruby Creek is something like 0.063% molybdenum. The average grade for first production from Ashdown is 5.6%. To give some meaning to those numbers, realize that each tonne of rock at Ruby Creek contains an average of 1.39 pounds of molybdenum valued at about $39.58 per tonne. That is quite a good grade for a porphyry mine but it is a pittance compared to Ashdown where each ton contains an average 112 pounds of molybdenum, which at $28.50 is worth $3,200 per ton!

2. Cost per pound of production should be much lower for Ashdown than the $5+ cost per pound estimate for Ruby Creek. We say that on the basis that for every one ton of ore mined and processed at Ashdown, a gross revenue of $3,192 is generated while for every one ton of ore processed at Ruby Creek, "only" $39.58 is generated. To be sure there are economies of scale in a major project like Ruby Creek figures to be, but it is also true that in an era of high energy costs, energy costs per pound of production at Ruby Creek figure to be much higher than at Ashdown.

3. Ruby Creek is woefully inadequate with respect to its infrastructure. Ashdown has all the infrastructure it needs to commence mining.

4. Ruby Creek has enormous capital costs ahead of it. Ashdown has already shouldered most of its costs. Somehow Adanac will have to raise $434.4 million to build the mine, requisite infrastructure and a mill. Ashdown already has its mine and mill built and ready for production.

5. Ruby Creek is at least five-years away from production. Ashdown may be shipping concentrate as early as the end of this month. You have five years of time value of money burdening Ruby Creek but not Ashdown, assuming they are successful in commencing production within weeks rather than years from now.

6. Ashdown is in a position to reap the benefits of high molybdenum prices now but Ruby Creek faces much greater moly price risk owing to the time before production. By then who knows what the molybdenum price will be?

The one advantage Ruby Creek has over Ashdown is that as a large-scale surface porphyry deposit, as large resource has been drilled and a bankable feasibility study has been completed. That is the way most of these low-grade surface mines proceed toward production.

By contrast, extremely high-grade, underground mining projects often have much less visibility into the future. They just simply follow the high-grade vein until they lose it. Until a planned exploration program is undertaken, we do not know how much molybdenum is contained at Ashdown but the strike length of the molybdenum bearing vein has been traced for 1800 feet and we also know that one drill hole put down about 80 ft. to the west along the prolific South Zone moly vein graded an astounding 20% Mo over 4.5 ft. That's $11,400 rock. At $550 gold, that is equivalent to gold deposit grading over 20 ounces of gold per ton! If my math is correct, at Ruby Creek, Adanac would have to process nearly 270 tonnes of rock to produce $11,700 worth of molybdenum compared to just one ton of rock at Ashdown. I should caution investors however to note that the average grades being processed at Ashdown will be lower. I say that on the basis of my understanding that optimum processing rates at the Ashdown mill will probably require lower mill head grades so dilution from mining the veins in the South Zone should not be a problem.

Grade is only one major advantage I think Ashdown has over Ruby Creek.

I noted that the only infrastructure Ruby Creek has in place is its roads. It doesn't have water and it doesn't have power. The nearest town is about 27 miles away. Ruby Creek certainly isn't the worst infrastructure story we have encountered over the years in this business, but it is a far cry from that of Ashdown where infrastructure is completely in place and where there is a supply of labor from the Winnemucca area as well. Not only that, but Ashdown is now ready to produce at a rate of 100 tons per day with production slated to begin as early as the end of this month. Sales contracts are in place. Golden Phoenix could become a revenue producing "A" Progress company on our list as early as October 31st if all goes well.

Where GPXM is at a disadvantage compared to Adanac is that it has no feasibility study nor, as yet, a "proven and probable" measure of its molybdenum resource from which it will measure production. But that is typical of high-grade mines. You just follow the veins and as long as they run, they provide a steady flow of cash. To date, the South Zone of the Ashdown deposit has been calculated to contain a minimum of 4.2 million pounds of moly as a mineralized resource. Meantime, Chief Geologist Dave Caldwell is developing an exploration drill program designed to build a mine model to guide future development. It is also worth stating that given relatively small capital expenditures compared to large scale porphyry deposits, a relatively small capital expenditure on smaller mines means that knowing how much ore or what the grades is not nearly as critical as on a low grade large major capital expense project.

High-grade mines are usually much more forgiving because there can be much more room for error than on a major project with skimpy unit profit margins. If memory serves me correctly, something like 21,550 tons of ore have been blocked out as the high-grade target in the South Zone at Ashdown. Keep in mind that with an average grade of 5.6% Mo, those 21,550 tons of ore contain something like 2.4 million pounds of elemental moly, which would take 1,728,000 tonnes to duplicate at Ruby Creek.

If Golden Phoenix is able to produce molybdenum from its mill and do so efficiently, I think this stock has major upside potential.

At that point, GPXM becomes both a producer and an explorer, giving investors the stability of production plus the high-leverage of an exploration play. If it is so good, why is it selling at $0.35? I suspect a major reason for that is this company's past history prior to a management change that took place a couple of years ago. If management had not been changed, I think this stock would have entered what is commonly known in the penny stock equity trade as a "death spiral." The new management has done everything it has said it would do. If it continues positively as it has now and enters production, subscribers who own this stock will be very happy. But at least we don't have to wait five years to find out if the project will work.

What if it doesn't work? Well, GPXM still has it's Mineral Ridge gold and silver mine in Nevada, and it is my understanding that management has been working quietly behind the scenes to move that project forward. I believe GPXM is worth its current price on the basis of Mineral Ridge alone so you are getting would could become a very unique world class molybdenum mine for next to nothing. A good way to keep track of their progress as they transition from developing Ashdown's mine and mill to regular production of moly concentrates is to visit their website at www.golden-phoenix.com. It has pictures and maps and is updated frequently.

It remains a high-risk proposition but given low expectations from the market, I believe the near-term upside for this stock could be two or three times its current price if the company is able over the next month or two to begin producing and selling molybdenum concentrate for which a buyer is eagerly awaiting. It will be somewhat less risky if it produces successfully. But as always, please allocate no more than 5% of your portfolio to this or any other one stock.


I wrote this up earlier today for my father. I'll drop the topic now, I was only trying to give out a tip to my fellow X owners. I realize nobody knows me, that's why I left it up to them to research the stocks for themselves and make a determination based on their own dd. I would never expect someone to dive into an investment just because someone told them something on a board. Hope this clearifies my point. Thanks.


  #7  
Old 10-26-2006, 07:45 PM
B-Line's Avatar
*** Is this thing on? ***
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Los Angeles...
Posts: 4,460
B-Line is on a distinguished road
As long as you are cutting and pasting..

Would you mind please sending each and every member of X5world a copy of the company prospectus. Also Jeffrey, who do you work for? Where can I read the article in the Wall St. Journal about you?
What are your references? Can you please give us some of the names of people who you have invested money for so we may speak with them about your work.
What is the investment strategy of your company?
What is your affiliation to these companies whose stocks you want us to buy?

Are you just giving us these stock tips out of the generosity of your heart? What are you trying to accomplish?

B
__________________
----------------------------------------------------------

"When two people agree on everything, one of them is not necessary" - Arliss
  #8  
Old 10-26-2006, 07:42 PM
ekaz's Avatar
Looking for spare change
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: in a box under the bridge by the river
Posts: 2,219
ekaz is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeffreyd
WTF? And here I thought this board was suppose to be friendly.
People here are friendly. In my opinion you have a couple of things going against you: You're fairly new around here and we don't know you that well, you start attacking a senior member for giving his point of view, you're only 21, and how often do you even open something that has the subject of HOT STOCK TIP? That's prime subject for file to junk folder and delete.
__________________
"Breathe, Stretch, Shake, Let it go."
"You'll be my dirty little secret."
Want info on becoming a Premier Member? Click Here
Visit my very own X5world X page!
Newer SRT8 page
  #9  
Old 10-26-2006, 07:44 PM
ekaz's Avatar
Looking for spare change
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: in a box under the bridge by the river
Posts: 2,219
ekaz is on a distinguished road
Everybody calm down, keep this up and we'll put this on lock down, it's going nowhere quick. Thanks.
__________________
"Breathe, Stretch, Shake, Let it go."
"You'll be my dirty little secret."
Want info on becoming a Premier Member? Click Here
Visit my very own X5world X page!
Newer SRT8 page
  #10  
Old 10-26-2006, 07:45 PM
Thunder22's Avatar
Wait... what?
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: LI/TX
Posts: 11,160
Thunder22 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by ekaz
Everybody calm down, keep this up and we'll put this on lock down, it's going nowhere quick. Thanks.

Go ahead... I dare ya

__________________
You have your way. I have my way. As for the right way, the correct way, and the only way, it does not exist.
Closed Thread

Bookmarks


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On





All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:42 AM.
vBulletin, Copyright 2026, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd. SEO by vBSEO 3.6.0
© 2017 Xoutpost.com. All rights reserved. Xoutpost.com is a private enthusiast site not associated with BMW AG.
The BMW name, marks, M stripe logo, and Roundel logo as well as X3, X5 and X6 designations used in the pages of this Web Site are the property of BMW AG.
This web site is not sponsored or affiliated in any way with BMW AG or any of its subsidiaries.