McCain elbows Obama in the polls... How long will this one last?

[Meiac09]

GOP bounce: McCain overtakes Obama
David Paul Kuhn
Sun Sep 7, 3:52 PM ET

John McCain has overtaken Barack Obama in the Gallup daily tracking poll and has his highest level of support in that poll since early May.

McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 45 percent among registered voters, by Gallup’s measure. McCain has so far earned the same convention bounce as Obama, though at a more rapid pace.

Obama peaked at a 5-point convention bounce in polling published last Tuesday. He was ahead 49 percent to 43 percent in the Gallup poll conducted before the Republican convention. He then soared to 50 percent for the first time of the election, by Gallup’s measure, while McCain fell to 42 percent.

McCain’s 5-point to 6-point bounce so far, like Obama’s, remains at par with historical expectations. In the 22 major-party conventions since 1964, the nominee walked away with, on average in most years, a 5-point to 6-point uptick in Gallup’s polls. The presidential polling will likely remain in flux until the middle of next week.

Today's Gallup report continues to include some polling conducted prior to McCain's acceptance speech. Tomorrow's report will be the first to include interviews solely conducted following the close of the GOP convention.

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll also reported today that when "leaners” are included, Obama and McCain are now tied at 48 percent. That means that, by Rasmussen’s measure, Obama’s 6-point bounce has been erased. CBS News polling had shown the same outcome midway through the GOP convention.

McCain’s resurgence in the polls comes as Nielsen Media Research reported that the Republican convention earned more television viewers than the Democratic convention. Republicans earned an average audience of 34.5 million, while Democrats earned an average viewership of 30.2 million.

Obama, McCain and GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin all earned a similar and record audience for their convention speeches, each nearing about 40 million viewers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/200...9FwhoN3Y7Cw5R4

[Meiac09]

It really doesn't matter how I vote, Maine is bluer than blue, but I wonder... Did McCain pull what Obama has been doing all along by starting a media frenzy? Now Obama's old news, its all about Miss Alaska now...

[MrLabGuy]

Originally Posted by Meiac09

It really doesn't matter how I vote, Maine is bluer than blue, but I wonder... Did McCain pull what Obama has been doing all along by starting a media frenzy? Now Obama's old news, its all about Miss Alaska now...

Which is why it was a brilliant move. Obama is going to get 90%+ of the African American vote but women in America make up 58% of the population and of them 65% voted in the last presidential election.

If he is able to swing as little as 10% of the women who voted Democratic last election McCain wins.

[Wagner]

Just appreciating it not being quite so lopsided anymore. Its kind of hard for the media to ignore the Rep when he leads a poll

[JCL]

Originally Posted by MrLabGuy

Which is why it was a brilliant move. Obama is going to get 90%+ of the African American vote but women in America make up 58% of the population and of them 65% voted in the last presidential election.

If he is able to swing as little as 10% of the women who voted Democratic last election McCain wins.

That comes across as pretty insulting to both black Americans, and women. You aren't giving either group much credit for being able to decide on something other than skin colour and gender.

[Wagner]

Originally Posted by JCL

That comes across as pretty insulting to both black Americans, and women. You aren't giving either group much credit for being able to decide on something other than skin colour and gender.

While I'd agree nearly 99.9%, there is the .01% out there doing just that so there is a portion of validity to that statement.

Now Obama is back-pedaling on tossing the Bush tax-cuts...

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09...bush-tax-cuts/

[JGQ]

I am confused. How could such a big swing happen over such a short period of time?!
The only variable is Pailin, but still how could she have such a big impact?!? The only thing I could think of is that the undecided vote that was polled in the past was highly composed of christian conservatives who were not sure about either candidate. Now that they have Pailin they are moving into McCaine's camp. But will that pick alienate some of McCain's independent voters? Not according to this poll!!

[Wagner]

Originally Posted by JGQ

I am confused. How could such a big swing happen over such a short period of time?!
The only variable is Pailin, but still how could she have such a big impact?!? The only thing I could think of is that the undecided vote that was polled in the past was highly composed of christian conservatives who were not sure about either candidate. Now that they have Pailin they are moving into McCaine's camp. But will that pick alienate some of McCain's independent voters? Not according to this poll!!

Because polls are a crock and the media loves to fire things up.

[KWP1911]

Originally Posted by Wagner

Because polls are a crock and the media loves to fire things up.

And whoever uses the poll numbers to help make up their minds are idiots who really shouldn't vote in the first place.

[CGSTL]

Obama's 15 minutes are soon to be over...