The Worst Predictions About 2008

AzX5 · #1 12-30-2008, 09:49 AM

The Worst Predictions About 2008
By Peter Coy
Mon Dec 29, 10:46 am ET

Here are some of the worst predictions that were made about 2008. Savor them -- a crop like this doesn't come along every year.

1. "A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" -- Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008

At the time of the prediction, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 12,300. By late December it was at 8,500.

2. AIG (NYSE:AIG - News) "could have huge gains in the second quarter." -- Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008

AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) and Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under I think they are in good shape going forward." -- Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008

Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.

4. "The market is in the process of correcting itself." -- President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech

For the rest of the year, the market kept correcting and correcting and correcting.

5. "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble." -- Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008

Five days later, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM - News) took over Bear Stearns with government help, nearly wiping out shareholders.

6. "Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008" -- Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007

On Dec. 23, 2008, the group said November sales were running at an annual rate of 4.5 million -- down 11% from a year earlier -- in the worst housing slump since the Depression.

7. "I think you'll see (oil prices at) $150 a barrel by the end of the year" -- T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008

Oil was then around $135 a barrel. By late December it was below $40.

8. "I expect there will be some failures. I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system." -- Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, Feb. 28, 2008

In September, Washington Mutual became the largest financial institution in U.S. history to fail. Citigroup (NYSE:C - News) needed an even bigger rescue in November.

9. "In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules." -- Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007

About a year later, Madoff -- who once headed the Nasdaq Stock Market -- told investigators he had cost his investors $50 billion in an alleged Ponzi scheme.

10. A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can't Win, the title of a book by conservative commentator Shelby Steele, published on Dec. 4, 2007.

Mr. Steele, meet President-elect Barack Obama.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/dec2008db...24028134/print

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MrLabGuy · #2 12-30-2008, 12:52 PM

Add to that Global Warming. We've had one of the coldest years in decades with snow covering most of the Continental US and record snowfall all over the globe. All of the so-called experts were wrong and all of the computer models which predicted melting snow and ice-caps were well off the mark.

X5rolls · #3 12-30-2008, 01:14 PM

Barney Frank and Senator Chris Dodd along with Bill Clinton are the reason Freddie and Fannie opened up lending to people who couldn't pay.

Lending to first time home owners and minorities is a great thing.

These guys had good intentions. I don't doubt that.

What was so infuriating and stupid was that this could have all been avoided.

Knowledgable people in the Mortgage industry knew that the program incentives for the execs at Freddie and Fannie and the ones that rolled out organizationally would generate horrible behavior, no checks and balances and would create a financial crater.

My prediction is that if we have Barney and Dodd predicting that things will be one way in 09, they will be wrong. No common business sense.

Ok, I feel better now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AzX5

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE - News) and Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM - News) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under I think they are in good shape going forward." -- Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008

Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.

motordavid · #4 12-30-2008, 01:54 PM

Great dig out, AzX5!

I'm going to print that out & staple it to the cover of my investment
ideas folder; it will be a reminder that most of the fookin "experts"
could not find their fannies with both hands. And, most of these
"geniuses" are still making big dough and mouthing off...

LabGuy: I would hold off on your GW view; a month or season or a couple
years is not the tell tale of ol'MotherEarth who has been orbiting around
for 4 1/2 billion years. As for your polar cap melting stats: I would love to
see your links. No tree hugger, but whomever thinks the globe is not
undergoing some changes, regardless of who or what the catalyst or
instigator is, is delusional, imo.
BR,mD

JGQ · #5 12-30-2008, 03:38 PM

Good read, Thanks AzX5!

JCL · #6 12-30-2008, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by motordavid

LabGuy: I would hold off on your GW view; a month or season or a couple
years is not the tell tale of ol'MotherEarth who has been orbiting around
for 4 1/2 billion years. As for your polar cap melting stats: I would love to
see your links. No tree hugger, but whomever thinks the globe is not
undergoing some changes, regardless of who or what the catalyst or
instigator is, is delusional, imo.
BR,mD

Quote:

December 26, 2008
New U.S. Geological Survey Report is Sobering

A new report from the U.S. Geological Survey states that the United States faces the possibility of a much faster climate change by the end of the century than what earlier studies have indicated.
Satellite data over the past two years shows the world's major ice sheets melting much more rapidly than previously thought, and based on this new information the global sea level rise by 2100 could be as much as 4 feet, according to the report. The earlier report from IPCC estimated a 1.5 foot sea level rise by 2100, but that report did not factor in the lubrication under the ice sheet.
The other major point of this new report was that the Southwestern U.S. may have already entered a prolonged drought that could extend all the way to the end of the century. Nearly all of the 24 computer models that were used in this study showed this long term drought.
------------------------------------------------------------
But, the report also indicated that were also some global warming effects that are NOT likely to occur by 2100........
--An abrupt release of methane from the seabed and permafrost.
--A shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, which brings warm water north and colder water south.

Thirty-two scientists from federal and non-federal institutions contributed to the report, which took nearly two years to complete. The Climate Change Science Program, which was established in 1990, coordinates the climate research of 13 different federal agencies, according to the Washington Post Article.

MrLabGuy · #7 12-30-2008, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by motordavid

Great dig out, AzX5!

I'm going to print that out & staple it to the cover of my investment
ideas folder; it will be a reminder that most of the fookin "experts"
could not find their fannies with both hands. And, most of these
"geniuses" are still making big dough and mouthing off...

LabGuy: I would hold off on your GW view; a month or season or a couple
years is not the tell tale of ol'MotherEarth who has been orbiting around
for 4 1/2 billion years. As for your polar cap melting stats: I would love to
see your links. No tree hugger, but whomever thinks the globe is not
undergoing some changes, regardless of who or what the catalyst or
instigator is, is delusional, imo.
BR,mD

The thread is about predictions in 2007 about the year 2008. Global Warming Alarmists lead by the brilliant thinker Al Gore predicted 2008 would be dry and warm due to the influence of man made global warming.

Fact is 2008 was one of the coldest in decades with record snowfall across the globe and thus the Global Warming Alarmists were wrong. Many factors which are currently beyond the control of man influence global temperatures the Sun being the primary factor in this determination. Meanwhile the media focuses on the experts quoted by the alarmists to sensationalize the issue while ignoring the 100's of climatologists and scientists who don't agree on the magnitude of human influence.

JCL · #8 12-30-2008, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrLabGuy

The thread is about predictions in 2007 about the year 2008. Global Warming Alarmists lead by the brilliant thinker Al Gore predicted 2008 would be dry and warm due to the influence of man made global warming.

Fact is 2008 was one of the coldest in decades with record snowfall across the globe and thus the Global Warming Alarmists were wrong. Many factors which are currently beyond the control of man influence global temperatures the Sun being the primary factor in this determination. Meanwhile the media focuses on the experts quoted by the alarmists to sensationalize the issue while ignoring the 100's of climatologists and scientists who don't agree on the magnitude of human influence.

Quite a few different ideas going on in that paragraph.

Al Gore doesn't define global climate change.

One season is irrelevant in the history of the earth (see MD's comments)

You have introduced the concept of man-made climate change. That is a different subject than climate change. We can agree (or not) that the climate is changing while agreeing (or not) that man is a significant cause of it. I assumed that the first three posts were about climate change, not whether or not it was man-made.

Interested in your 'polar ice caps aren't melting' link. A US Geological survey report out this past week was included for your reference

trueX5er · #9 12-30-2008, 11:42 PM

I agree, great read. Thanks for posting.

MrLabGuy · #10 12-31-2008, 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL

Quite a few different ideas going on in that paragraph.

Al Gore doesn't define global climate change.

One season is irrelevant in the history of the earth (see MD's comments)

You have introduced the concept of man-made climate change. That is a different subject than climate change. We can agree (or not) that the climate is changing while agreeing (or not) that man is a significant cause of it. I assumed that the first three posts were about climate change, not whether or not it was man-made.

Interested in your 'polar ice caps aren't melting' link. A US Geological survey report out this past week was included for your reference

No doubt there are changes to the ice caps which have been growing and shrinking for hundreds of thousands of years without the help of mankind. Earths major swings in global temperatures fall in line with solar activity which would lead any reasonable person to conclude the sun has a much greater influence over global temperatures than man.

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