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Quicksilver 02-22-2011 12:17 PM

Gas Prices Could Rise to $5 Per Gallon
 
Locally we have been watching prices rise headed to $4.00 a gallon.
What will happen if the entire region decides they want to rise up and
be free?

Gas Prices Could Rise to $5 Per Gallon Due To Middle East Protests In Libya

Krimson X 02-22-2011 01:22 PM

Short term problem, (possible) long term gain.

Quicksilver 02-22-2011 03:52 PM

Maybe, maybe not. The oil situation and the region can't possibly
continue business as usual.

Krimson X 02-22-2011 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quicksilver (Post 806815)
Maybe, maybe not. The oil situation and the region can't possibly
continue business as usual.

Take the power away from the few that control all of the resources, slap down the dictators... I think we will see things ease a bit. Democracy is catching on like wildfire in that part of the world, while we seem less democratic here in the U.S lately. It happened very quietly in Southern Sudan last month when the citizens voted for independence from the Republic of Sudan to create the World's newest country, which went relatively unreported by the media. I am curious to see what happens in Libya. In the meantime, oil will be high for a while; however, it was already trending up before the crisis began in the middle east (Africa).

Did everyone in the media flunk geography and world history? When did Libya and Egypt annex itself from Africa and become part of the middle east? Just curious...:dunno:

TheGodfather 02-22-2011 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krimson X (Post 806840)
Did everyone in the media flunk geography and world history? When did Libya and Egypt annex itself from Africa and become part of the middle east? Just curious...:dunno:

Haha, that mentality is a product of post 9/11 public awareness. Lots of vague coverage on countries and issues that no one cared about until a small minority of people decided to declare a war on western ideals.

Now Muslim is middle east, and middle east is bad. After further reading, I have learned that Northern Africa is considered to be part of the "Middle East"


Speaking about the price of oil, recently a report revealed (I think from wikileaks) that Saudi Arabia has been overstating its reserves and production capacity for years.

The recent and more accurate information leads us to believe they may in fact be on the cusp of peak production, and it daily production capacity will be on the decline shortly. This is all contrary to what the Aramco would want us to believe.

CTV News | Wikileaks reveals imminent Saudi oil peak

JCL 02-23-2011 12:50 AM

I paid $1.37 per litre yesterday, equates to $6.22 per gallon, $5.18 for the smaller US gallon (dollar is at par).

Don't think we will see it drop back down to $5 per gallon anytime soon. Forecast is for over $6 per US gallon here in the next two months. Hard to understand why the US is still cheaper, given that Canada is your largest supplier of oil. Time to raise those taxes.

wallyx5 02-23-2011 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 806946)
I paid $1.37 per litre yesterday, equates to $6.22 per gallon, $5.18 for the smaller US gallon (dollar is at par).

Don't think we will see it drop back down to $5 per gallon anytime soon. Forecast is for over $6 per US gallon here in the next two months. Hard to understand why the US is still cheaper, given that Canada is your largest supplier of oil. Time to raise those taxes.


Isn't that crazy. Most people don't know that we get so much oil from you guys. It's a quite fact that Canada sells us so much oil. I never understood why your gas is so expensive up there since you have so much oil. I always make sure I fill up down here before I head up there for the day to work.

Cheers,

J.Belknap 02-23-2011 02:10 AM

What I always think of when I hear the rumors of gasoline being scarce.

http://www.hollywood-diecast.com/roa...rior%20pic.jpg

motordavid 02-23-2011 10:52 PM

Orig MadMax: great flick!

An art. from today's NewYawkTimes on why the Libya fiasco added to the oil price hike. However, back at the Speculation & Prop Up Every Commodity's Pricing, if one was forced to take 'possession', I bet the spot price would be ~$60 tomorrow, and 'futures' would be even less, but I'm not king, yet. Embolden is mine...
GL, mD


Why the Disruption of Libyan Oil Has Led to a Spike in Prices
By CLIFFORD KRAUSS

Published: February 23, 2011


  • The unrest in Libya has forced oil companies to shut down production of as much as a million barrels a day of some of the world’s highest quality crude. For the first time, the turmoil that has spread from Tunisia to Egypt to Bahrain has made an appreciable dent on world oil supplies.


Libya produces less than 2 percent of the world’s oil and exports little to the United States. But the quality of its reserves magnifies its importance, causing a spike in both American and European oil price benchmarks despite assurances from Saudi Arabia that it was ready to pump more oil to calm markets.

In New York West Texas Intermediate Benchmark crude for April delivery briefly touched $100 on Tuesday for the first time in more than two years, before easing moderately. In London, Brent crude for April delivery rose $5.47 to $111.25 a barrel.

Libya’s sweet crude cannot be easily replaced for the production of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, particularly by the many European and Asian refineries that are not equipped to refine heavier grades of oil. Saudi Arabia may have more than 4 million barrels of spare capacity, but it includes heavier grades of crude that are higher in sulfur content and more expensive to refine.

“Quality matters more than quantity,” Larry Goldstein, a director of the Energy Policy Research Foundation, an organization partly financed by the oil industry.

Should the turmoil in Libya last for more than a few weeks, oil experts predict that European refiners will be forced to buy sweet crude from Algeria and Nigeria, two principal sources for the United States. That could push gasoline higher in the United States, where prices have already risen 6 cents a gallon in the last week to an average of $3.19 for regular.
“Nigeria and Algeria are already producing flat out so they can’t come up with another million barrels a day,” Michael Lynch, president of the Strategic Energy and Economic Research consultancy firm, said. “That means there will be a scramble for lighter crude supplies.”
Mr. Goldstein said the disruption could “force all sweet crude refiners into a bidding war.”

Sweet crude is particularly suited for diesel, which is far more popular as a fuel in Europe than in the United States. In contrast to Europe, American refineries are outfitted to handle a heavier grade of crude oil that comes from countries like Venezuela and Mexico.

Gulf Coast jet fuel prices soared about 6 cents, to $2.86 a gallon on Tuesday, putting pressure on airlines to raise fares. Meanwhile, diesel prices have risen 4 cents in the last week to $3.57 a gallon, the highest level since October 2008.

The last time there was shortage of sweet crude, in 2007 and early 2008, oil prices spiked to more than $140 a barrel, although that shortage was caused by spiraling demand and not a sudden cut in supply.

Mr. Lynch said the Brent benchmark was headed for $120 a barrel and West Texas Crude would reach $110 “in the near term.” That could easily push the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline to $3.50, a price that economists have identified as a tipping point for consumers juggling expenditures of gas with discretional shopping and dining out.
Still, the United States remains less directly vulnerable than most European or Asian nations because its large refineries are capable of processing both sweet and sour crudes. That versatility makes the United States an exporter of both diesel and jet fuel.

At the moment the oil storage depot in Cushing, Okla., has plentiful supplies, which is one reason the American West Texas Intermediate price benchmark is about $10 below Brent oil which is traded in London.

If supplies of sweet oil become tight, the United States can release supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but that would probably only have a marginal impact on prices. Europe is most immediately impacted by the Libyan crisis. More than 85 percent of Libya’s 1.5 million barrels of exports go to Europe, with more than a third of that going to Italy. Most of the rest goes to Asia. About 5 percent is sent to the United States.

Eni, the Italian oil company, Repsol of Spain, Total of France, Statoil of Norway and BASF, the German chemical and energy company have halted much if not most of their oil production in Libya and moved personnel out of the country.

In a research note, Barclays Capital estimated that around 1 million barrels a day of production has been shut down, or more than half the country’s total. Much of Libya’s oil producing capacity and port operations are in the eastern part of the country where the government has lost most political control.

That puts the focus on neighboring Algeria, a country with a long history of unrest. As an OPEC member that produces about 1.42 million barrels a day, Algeria is the seventh biggest source for oil imports to the United States.

There have been sporadic protests against high food prices and unemployment over the last several weeks, including at least two large protests in Algiers demanding the resignation of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

“You have a powder keg in Algeria with social problems, ethnic problems and an Islamist organization blended together and overlapping,” said Michael J. Economides, a professor of engineering and energy economics at the University of Houston. “Many refineries would go into paroxysm if they lose Libyan and Algerian oil.”

Most Middle East oil production is in the control of national oil companies that operate as virtual state agencies and coordinate their security needs with the national militaries.

But that is not the case in either Libya or Algeria, where American and European oil companies have invested heavily to increase production that had been lagging. Foreign companies have shown in Libya, and to a lesser extent Egypt, that they will shut down exploration and production and close their offices rather than jeopardize the safety of their employees.

JCL 02-24-2011 02:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krimson X (Post 806840)
Take the power away from the few that control all of the resources, slap down the dictators... I think we will see things ease a bit. Democracy is catching on like wildfire in that part of the world...

I read a good article today about how it isn't democracy that is catching on, but rather regime change. When the military decide to stop backing one dicatator, and get ready to put the next one in, that isn't democracy. And when the military can't agree on a course of action, and it degenerates into tribal warfare, it is civil war instead of democracy.

Regardless, fuel prices will keep rising for awhile.

JCL 02-24-2011 02:07 AM

MD: thanks for posting this. Libya may be only 2% of world production, but I think scares and price hikes may be also impacted by global peak production theories, as much as by the quality of their oil. It won't be a single tipping point, but at some point the world will figure out that the second half of the oil in the ground is harder to get out than the first half that has already been extracted. I never figured out how people thought oil would keep coming out at ever-increasing rates until that day when it is all gone.

Krimson X 02-24-2011 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 807197)
I read a good article today about how it isn't democracy that is catching on, but rather regime change. When the military decide to stop backing one dicatator, and get ready to put the next one in, that isn't democracy. And when the military can't agree on a course of action, and it degenerates into tribal warfare, it is civil war instead of democracy.

Regardless, fuel prices will keep rising for awhile.

So all of these contries decided on regime change within weeks of each other? I don't think the revolutionary protest in Tunisa, Egypt or Libya were started because the military stopped supproting the dictator. Tunisa's protest started when someone immolated himself in protest of corrupt dictator President Ben Ali, forcing Ben Ali's resignation. Egypt's protesters were inspired by the protest in Tunisa and by a Google executive. Libya is just following suit.

JCL 02-24-2011 04:24 PM

I am not suggesting that the regime changes are not driven by the demonstrations. I think they clearly are.

It is just that if the demonstrations get resolved by the military deciding to reverse their position and support change (as in Egypt) then the outcome of that change isn't necessarily democracy. In the short term it is a military dictatorship. It may turn into free elections. Or it may not.

And if the military doesn't act in a united fashion, (as in Libya) then the outcome of that change is likely civil war.

J.Belknap 02-24-2011 07:01 PM

Curious how the middle east stability affects pricing to a greater degree than the craziness that has been going on for some time now in Mexico, a country where we purchase a higher volume of oil?

It doesn't make sense, someone please enlighten me.

AzX5 02-24-2011 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 806946)
Hard to understand why the US is still cheaper, given that Canada is your largest supplier of oil. Time to raise those taxes.

Could it have something to do with Universal Healthcare, or lack thereof in our case?;)

Quicksilver 02-24-2011 08:06 PM

Whatever the reason the price of fuel is very likely to go "UP".
If the price goes up it seems only logical that people will spend
less money on other things and the beat goes on..... :(

J.Belknap 02-24-2011 09:03 PM

Wish I could retrofit a Mr. Fusion home energy reactor. :(

JCL 02-24-2011 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AzX5 (Post 807349)
Could it have something to do with Universal Healthcare, or lack thereof in our case?;)

Nice try. Payroll and income taxes fund health care here.

Turning it around, if it was connected, I guess it would be evidenced by anyone on Medicare paying more at the pump in the US. Has that been the case?

motordavid 02-24-2011 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J.Belknap (Post 807334)
Curious how the middle east stability affects pricing to a greater degree than the craziness that has been going on for some time now in Mexico, a country where we purchase a higher volume of oil?

It doesn't make sense, someone please enlighten me.

J...
No Xpert...just off the top of my #2 buzz cut melon:

-Libya oil, and lots of other 'mid east/African' countries goes to Europa, and into the world wide 'pot'. Speculators love 'trouble' and 'tension'.
-Even though the drug crazies have been murdering anyone they feel like, the oil from MX keeps coming, for now.
-Force the speculators to take delivery: oil will be $60 to $70 bbl max in less than a week.
-the short interest on oil, is miniscule; the longs, (all speculative), are betting their plaid vests on $120, or higher. With no 'delivery/possession', zero down unlike most 'options', no problem. Equals forced higher, and higher prices.

All this blip does is reopen a festering wound, drag down econ recovery, and make some geopolitical regions more wealthy, based on an over priced commodity that happens to be handily available under their sands.

The world, and esp the US, is not running out to buy electric cars or Priuses tomorrow. And, Solar/alt techs keep laying off and whistling in the dark, due to utter lack of interest, private or public or, governmental.

Welcome to the continuing saga of chaos.
GL, mD

J.Belknap 02-25-2011 12:28 AM

Thanks for your .02 mD.... I don't know, part of me has the tin-foil hat on about a few opinions on the Mexico thing, but maybe I've just been working for the gov't for too long. In any case, your post reminded me that I need to brush up on the day trading stuff... in case I find some change in the back seat or something. Appreciate the post man.

JCL 02-25-2011 02:31 AM

I found this report interesting. Paul Sankey of Deutsche Bank - The End of the Oil Age, 2011 and Beyond. An analysis of supply and demand, key factors, and lots of projections. Recommended reading for those that haven't seen it.

What I found interesting was the strong expectation of electric vehicles becoming a factor.

The End of the Oil Age - 2011 and Beyond: A Reality Check

KYZRSOSE 02-25-2011 12:40 PM

Why are we worried about this. I thought the world was run by 5 people....
"The Queen, The Vatican, The Gettys, The Rothschilds, *and* Colonel Sanders.

X5rolls 02-25-2011 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 806946)
I paid $1.37 per litre yesterday, equates to $6.22 per gallon, $5.18 for the smaller US gallon (dollar is at par).

Don't think we will see it drop back down to $5 per gallon anytime soon. Forecast is for over $6 per US gallon here in the next two months. Hard to understand why the US is still cheaper, given that Canada is your largest supplier of oil. Time to raise those taxes.

I understand the economic argument for raising taxes on gas to lower consumption. It is a reasonable position in terms of cause and effect.

However, for many in the US, not all of course, the thought of raising taxes is just not justified. We are sitting on a significant amount of untapped oil in the US. It amazes me that we are not using our own resources more.

Ultimately, we will be forced to drill as the global supply dwindles but why wait? The new uncertainty in Africa and the Middle East will not do much to depress oil prices obviously. The volatility in oil prices and ultimately availability short and mid term will play havoc on our markets and the economy.

It is politically difficult to allow more drilling and increase refining capabilities. So what. It is called leadership, doing the things that are hard to do and being successful at it. That is what all politicians say they are about. They either all lie or do not have the guts to do what they say they will do.

Many countries do not know why we do not have higher gas prices and higher taxes.

Does not mean we should though.

The future isn't oil but we should limit our exposure to these increasing supply and market risks.

Krimson X 02-25-2011 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by X5rolls (Post 807523)
I understand the economic argument for raising taxes on gas to lower consumption. It is a reasonable position in terms of cause and effect.

However, for many in the US, not all of course, the thought of raising taxes is just not justified. We are sitting on a significant amount of untapped oil in the US. It amazes me that we are not using our own resources more.

Ultimately, we will be forced to drill as the global supply dwindles but why wait? The new uncertainty in Africa and the Middle East will not do much to depress oil prices obviously. The volatility in oil prices and ultimately availability short and mid term will play havoc on our markets and the economy.

It is politically difficult to allow more drilling and increase refining capabilities. So what. It is called leadership, doing the things that are hard to do and being successful at it. That is what all politicians say they are about. They either all lie or do not have the guts to do what they say they will do.

Many countries do not know why we do not have higher gas prices and higher taxes.

Does not mean we should though.

The future isn't oil but we should limit our exposure to these increasing supply and market risks.

It is a myth that the U.S. does not produce significant amounts of oil. We rank 3rd in daily production of oil. Here is a list of the top 20 oil producers in the world, and their daily production:

#20. Azerbaijan-1.0 million barrels ;
#19. United Kingdom- produces 1.3 million barrels ;
#18. Kazakhstan- produces 1.5 million barrels ;
#17. Libya- produces 1.7 million barrels;
#16. Algeria- produces 1.8 million barrels;
#15. Angola- produces 1.9 million barrels;
#14. Brazil- produces 2.0 million barrels;
#13. Norway- produces 2.1 million barrels;
#12. Nigeria- produces 2.2 million barrels;
#11. Venezuela- produces 2.3 million barrels;
#10. Kuwait- produces 2.4 million barrels;
#9. Iraq- produces 2.4 million barrels;
#8. United Arab Emirates- produce 2.4 million barrels;
#7. Canada- produces 2.6 million barrels;
#6. Mexico- produces 2.6 million barrels;
#5. China- produces 3.8 million barrels;
#4. Iran- produces 4.0 million barrels;
#3. United States- produces 5.4 million barrels;
#2. Saudi Arabia- produces 8.3 million barrels; and,
#1. Russia- produces 9.5 million barrels.

JCL 02-25-2011 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by X5rolls (Post 807523)
I understand the economic argument for raising taxes on gas to lower consumption. It is a reasonable position in terms of cause and effect.

However, for many in the US, not all of course, the thought of raising taxes is just not justified. We are sitting on a significant amount of untapped oil in the US. It amazes me that we are not using our own resources more.

Ultimately, we will be forced to drill as the global supply dwindles but why wait? The new uncertainty in Africa and the Middle East will not do much to depress oil prices obviously. The volatility in oil prices and ultimately availability short and mid term will play havoc on our markets and the economy.

It is politically difficult to allow more drilling and increase refining capabilities. So what. It is called leadership, doing the things that are hard to do and being successful at it. That is what all politicians say they are about. They either all lie or do not have the guts to do what they say they will do.

Many countries do not know why we do not have higher gas prices and higher taxes.

Does not mean we should though.

The future isn't oil but we should limit our exposure to these increasing supply and market risks.

My comments were rather glib, but I wasn't suggesting that prices should be raised just for the sake of it. I don't think that the future is oil either. I think that waiting until that date to start to take action is a huge problem. North American economies will have incredible pain through the adjustments that will be required when the age of cheap oil eventually ends. This is fundamentally a risk mitigation issue.

That mitigation should be multi-faceted, but could include things like requiring much higher fleet average fuel efficiencies, accelerating the shift away from traditional internal-combustion engines and developing alternative vehicle power sources, shifting city planning priorities to support urban development that integrates with public transit, and so on.

All this will cost money. The funding for that should come from current users of cheap oil, on the principle that some pain now will reduce the much greater pain that is coming later.

Continuing to consume ever more cheap oil in the coming years, and delaying taking action, will be disastrous. I don't think it is about increasing production, it is about developing alternatives, and influencing demand more than supply.

Yes, leadership will be required. I hope those in power can demonstrate it.

X5rolls 02-25-2011 08:59 PM

Krimson

I don't understand your point. How much we produce has nothing to do with the amount we import at this current time.

X5rolls 02-25-2011 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 807625)
My comments were rather glib, but I wasn't suggesting that prices should be raised just for the sake of it. I don't think that the future is oil either. I think that waiting until that date to start to take action is a huge problem. North American economies will have incredible pain through the adjustments that will be required when the age of cheap oil eventually ends. This is fundamentally a risk mitigation issue.

That mitigation should be multi-faceted, but could include things like requiring much higher fleet average fuel efficiencies, accelerating the shift away from traditional internal-combustion engines and developing alternative vehicle power sources, shifting city planning priorities to support urban development that integrates with public transit, and so on.

All this will cost money. The funding for that should come from current users of cheap oil, on the principle that some pain now will reduce the much greater pain that is coming later.

Continuing to consume ever more cheap oil in the coming years, and delaying taking action, will be disastrous. I don't think it is about increasing production, it is about developing alternatives, and influencing demand more than supply.

Yes, leadership will be required. I hope those in power can demonstrate it.

I generally agree with your points. I'm still not a fan of increasing taxes for this purpose however.

What I've been thinking about and would advocate for is alignment between research at a national level in the private sector and within the university community (like what was done in the mid 20th century in the US), the capital investment community including venture capital and the Federal/State Gov'ts with tax INCENTIVES promoting investment.

If alignment between these groups were to happen, a focused effort of pure, applied, and theoretical science could produce advancements in conjunction with capitalism. The Gov't could provide a certain framework supporting the end result and encourages big oil companies and the distribution end of oil to develop new business models that gave them an incentive to become part of the solution vs. the problem.

Alternative energy opportunities abound but are not yet either ready for prime time or the national infrastructure including distribution has too many big obstacles to become a reality before the ultimate crisis based tipping point.

I'm not describing utopia since it has been done before, Bell Labs as an example of science, investment and commercialization. The WWII domestic effort etc.

Now this also takes leadership. Something that seems to be lacking.

motordavid 02-25-2011 09:51 PM

Helluva read, JCL...thanks. I must admit I skimmed some of the 59+ pages, as only someone in the biz, or a shut in, would pour over all the data...;)

I don't disagree on electric/battery powered/hybrid cars coming of age, (and the DB guys certainly spent most of the space on that 'support theme'); in my post above I was not being critical of the electric car, et al, developments, but my point is that most of the US car buyers are not running out to buy one, soon. And, most of the US car owners are not tossing their car(s) tomorrow or next year, for one, imo.

Add in the source of that 'electric power', here in the US, (coal 45%, nat gas 23%+, nuke 20%, etc.), and while non-gas cars may support some oil usage decrease, that electric power generation comes from 'somewhere'...
mostly coal and gas and, some nuke, in the US. Coal plants are under the gun emissions/improvement-wise, a new US nuke plant has not broken ground in over two decades, and natural gas seems to be the semi-good stuff no one really loves.

One of the umptyseven graphs, with projections, seems to tell the tale on current and projected consumption: most of the 'us', country-wise, will keep the lid on, so to speak, while China increases consumption considerably...fwiw.

Jumping ahead, post reading-wise, I'm with X5 rolls, in regards to his point(s) on making a long jump for national industry coupled with top level practical research getting us/NA to the next level. The last possible and least effective method, imo, is taxing the hell out of 'petroleum', letting those increased taxes slide into the general fund of gov't, and then hoping some litany of 'gov't programs' is going to lead the way...

Gov't has not had a successful inventive, money saving, energy saving program in my memory.

Increased taxes to guide or change or adjust social/econ behavior is not the way to proceed these days; it simply taxes JoeSixPack, (and 200 million others in the US), effects no real improvements, and the money is literally pissed away in 'the gov't'.

Didn't mean to get on my anti-gov't rant, but $4-5 buck gas is only going to pinch many in the short-medium term and, other than its speculative and irrational 'support base', it will do little to spur real adjustment in our energy practices and usage.
GL, mD

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 807440)
I found this report interesting. Paul Sankey of Deutsche Bank - The End of the Oil Age, 2011 and Beyond. An analysis of supply and demand, key factors, and lots of projections. Recommended reading for those that haven't seen it.

What I found interesting was the strong expectation of electric vehicles becoming a factor.

The End of the Oil Age - 2011 and Beyond: A Reality Check


Quicksilver 02-25-2011 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by motordavid (Post 807640)
$4-5 buck gas is only going to pinch many in the short-medium term and, other than its speculative and irrational 'support base', it will do little to spur real adjustment in our energy practices and usage.
GL, mD

:iagree: And thats my point. Sure i'm not as intelligent as the rest of you folks. I just look at the facts from my limited perspective and IMO the issues in the middle east and strife around the rest of the world will only stifle the economy going forward.

Not being shorted but as I see it, paying more money for gas will cause Joe consumers purchasing power to decrease measurably. I watching the local prices go up at almost the same speed as my gas gauge is going down.

In the meantime the price of commodities are on the rise and companies are raising prices for the goods they sell and giving you less for what they charge. If this keeps up; nobody is going to have much money to buy the basics let alone electric cars.

JCL 02-25-2011 11:48 PM

I understand the difficulties in raising taxes on fuel, and if it ended up in a general government revenue fund it would only potentially impact demand, while not doing anything to accelerate the development of alternatives.

But it doesn't have to be a net tax increase, if government can cut other programs to fund investment in new technologies.

Three years ago our provincial government implemented a carbon tax. It was revenue neutral, in that average consumers and earners came out identically, and there were additional tax benefits worked in to it to help very low income families. For those that doubted government, there was legislation that required the government to show how all the tax collected was returned to taxpayers in other ways, each year. There were also inevitably some winners and losers. If you had very inefficient home heating, and consumed more gas than the average household, you lost (until you invested in more insulation or a better furnace, if that was possible). If you had the ability to change your behaviour, or were low consumers of fossil fuels, you could win. We won, as we chose to move closer to work, downsize our rather empty large house, buy more fuel efficient cars, and so on. We wanted to do some of those things anyway, it wasn't all because of the tax, but we came out ahead personally. Across the larger population though, whether directly or indirectly, what the new tax did was to start (slowly) to shift the tax burden so that it was more directly linked to excessive consumption of fossil fuels, whether for transportation, heating, or industry. It was intended to change behaviours. I found it interesting how much support the tax received from the general population. I think it is one example of how government can, as X5rolls put it, provide a framework to support the desired end result, in this case for both consumers and industry.

I agree that electric vehicles will not have an immediate benefit in locations where power is primarily produced by coal or natural gas (we have a lot of hydro power here). I think that anticipating a potential shift to electric vehicles means that attention should be paid to cleaning up power stations, and not just tailpipes.

X5Sport 02-26-2011 06:40 AM

In the UK we're now paying around £1-34 for Petrol and £1-39 for Diesl per litre which makes our fuel very expensive. Somewhere around 80% of that cost is in direct taxation in the form of Fuel Duty and VAT (Sales Tax).

Given the almost complete pay freeze in certain industries for the last 4 years it's starting to hurt. I'm in te IT industry and like most of my team and colleagues have seen no increase in the last 4 years. Comes of working for a US Company unfortunatly. In terms of fuel prices and options, unfortunately there really is no alternative as our Public Transport is inefficient, poorly run, very expensive, crowded, old, dirty and often runs at inconvenient times unless you are in a big city or close to a major commuter route.

Electric cars don't really work in rural areas, hydrogen is non-existent, LPG is rare now and hybrid cars too damned expensive and their emissions levels are not told honestly by the manufacturers so seem no more than a toy for he image conscious. I do drive less than I used to, and work from home most days now. Yes I know I have an X6, but at least it is the more efficient Diesel version - petrol ones are way too expensive to run in the UK these days unless you have money to burn


For now, we're stuck in the Age of Oil, and it's high time we got out of it by spending vast sums of money developing new technology to replace petrol/diesel engines instead of sinking more oil wells into more and more risky places. You can safely say that most Brits were horrified at BP's mega screw up in the Gulf last year, even more so if it was down to penny pinching managers!!

Krimson X 02-27-2011 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by X5rolls (Post 807626)
Krimson

I don't understand your point. How much we produce has nothing to do with the amount we import at this current time.


My point is that we cannot drill ourselves out of our dependence on foreign oil if we are already the world's 3 biggest producer.

X5rolls 02-28-2011 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krimson X (Post 808071)
My point is that we cannot drill ourselves out of our dependence on foreign oil if we are already the world's 3 biggest producer.

Yep, I agree with you on eliminating the dependence. We should try to lower it by increased domestic drilling would be my view.

Quicksilver 02-28-2011 12:34 PM

And the beat goes on. High pump prices rattle drivers and businesses | Comcast.net

X5rolls 02-28-2011 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quicksilver (Post 808139)


It is a real crush, the additional costs are a big difference to many.

In the piece above (while I really do have empathy for folks who are struggling on a month to month basis) this quote jumped out as a bit off.

For drivers such as Robert Wagner, 51, a high school teacher from Thornton, Colo., the higher fuel costs mean cutting back on movies and dinners out for him, his wife and their two children. "We're very, very frugal right now," he said as he trickled enough $3.09-per-gallon gasoline into his Chevrolet Suburban to get him to his next pay day.

It's not like people didn't know Surburbans got horrible has mileage 2 years ago. I mean, come on now. Frugal would mean getting rid of the Surburban, not going to movies and eating at home. He needs to cut his expenses big time.

Give me 20 minutes going over his finances/expenses and I bet I could get him on a plan to reduce his costs significantly. There is nothing wrong with living within ones means.

On a final note, he should be reading the tea leaves about cuts in teacher union based benefits - think he may pay more soon and get less later. Think ahead and you might not be surprised while you trickle gas into your gas hog of a machine on your way to the movies and a resturant. Bet he doesn't teach economics. ;)

motordavid 02-28-2011 07:23 PM

X5Rolls,
Right On, and

:iagree:.

Mr&Mrs 'AvgAmeican' have lil'clue where their monthly dough goes, besides their mort, car payment(s), widescreen tv note, et al.

And, many families' 'budget' and 'financial planning' is akin to the Fed gov't's style, imo.
GL, mD

X5rolls 02-28-2011 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by motordavid (Post 808229)
X5Rolls,
Right On, and

:iagree:.

Mr&Mrs 'AvgAmeican' have lil'clue where their monthly dough goes, besides their mort, car payment(s), widescreen tv note, et al.

And, many families' 'budget' and 'financial planning' is akin to the Fed gov't's style, imo.
GL, mD

Sad but true.

You know, wouldn't it be great if in school they actually tought kids how to be responsible with money, to budget and even...... save? Seems like parents don't do enough of that, maybe they are too worried about being a kids friend.

Quicksilver 02-28-2011 09:27 PM

Actually parents don't do enough of that. Maxing out credit cards, second and third mortgages you name it, thats the example they set. Now add to that young people who think they deserve everything now and budget and even save don't enter into the conversation. :confused:

Quote:

Originally Posted by X5rolls (Post 808234)
Sad but true.

You know, wouldn't it be great if in school they actually tought kids how to be responsible with money, to budget and even...... save? Seems like parents don't do enough of that, maybe they are too worried about being a kids friend.


X5rolls 03-01-2011 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quicksilver (Post 808273)
Actually parents don't do enough of that. Maxing out credit cards, second and third mortgages you name it, thats the example they set. Now add to that young people who think they deserve everything now and budget and even save don't enter into the conversation. :confused:


I couldn't agree more. Not all folks of course but a ton of them.

JCL 03-02-2011 02:40 PM

Back on the theme of increasing domestic production, and focusing on the supply side of the equation....

I came across this today, and thought of this thread. The USGS reduced their previous (2002) estimate of undiscovered conventional oil in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve and associated waters by 90%. This isn't all of Alaska, but it is a sizeable area. This new estimate is based on more recent exploration, and counts the technically recoverable oil and gas. Gas reserves were also reduced. So, it isn't just in Saudi that reserves have been overstated. This entire estimated reserve would supply all oil needs in the US for about 45 days by one calculation. Sort of puts a cramp in the 'drill baby drill' promoters in Alaska.


USGS Release: USGS Oil and Gas Resource Estimates Updated for the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) (10/26/2010 12:43:17 PM)

Edit:

I wondered how comparable the NPRA is compared to the ANWR, since there is a lot of discussion about drilling in the ANWR. The NPRA is 23 million acres, the ANWR is 19 million acres. Comparable, at first glance. They are both on the North Slope, where the oil is. We don't know with any confidence what reserves the ANWR contains, since the estimates are older than the old NPRA estimates. However, in 1998 the USGS put the reserves in the ANWR at between 5.7 and 16 billion barrels, with a mean estimate of 10.4 billion barrels. That is comparable to the 10.6 billion barrels that the USGS estimated were in the NPRA in 2002, and which has been downgraded by 90%, above.

JCL 03-02-2011 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by X5rolls (Post 808142)
In the piece above (while I really do have empathy for folks who are struggling on a month to month basis) this quote jumped out as a bit off.

For drivers such as Robert Wagner, 51, a high school teacher from Thornton, Colo., the higher fuel costs mean cutting back on movies and dinners out for him, his wife and their two children. "We're very, very frugal right now," he said as he trickled enough $3.09-per-gallon gasoline into his Chevrolet Suburban to get him to his next pay day.

It's not like people didn't know Surburbans got horrible has mileage 2 years ago. I mean, come on now. Frugal would mean getting rid of the Surburban, not going to movies and eating at home. He needs to cut his expenses big time.

Give me 20 minutes going over his finances/expenses and I bet I could get him on a plan to reduce his costs significantly. There is nothing wrong with living within ones means.

I just went back and read this. Agree completely. I do think though that this is why the phrase "addicted to oil" is fitting. The subject of the article likely can't see the absurdity of the situation.

X5rolls 03-02-2011 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 808666)
Back on the theme of increasing domestic production, and focusing on the supply side of the equation....

I came across this today, and thought of this thread. The USGS reduced their previous (2002) estimate of undiscovered conventional oil in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve and associated waters by 90%. This isn't all of Alaska, but it is a sizeable area. This new estimate is based on more recent exploration, and counts the technically recoverable oil and gas. Gas reserves were also reduced. So, it isn't just in Saudi that reserves have been overstated. This entire estimated reserve would supply all oil needs in the US for about 45 days by one calculation. Sort of puts a cramp in the 'drill baby drill' promoters in Alaska.


USGS Release: USGS Oil and Gas Resource Estimates Updated for the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) (10/26/2010 12:43:17 PM)

Edit:

I wondered how comparable the NPRA is compared to the ANWR, since there is a lot of discussion about drilling in the ANWR. The NPRA is 23 million acres, the ANWR is 19 million acres. Comparable, at first glance. They are both on the North Slope, where the oil is. We don't know with any confidence what reserves the ANWR contains, since the estimates are older than the old NPRA estimates. However, in 1998 the USGS put the reserves in the ANWR at between 5.7 and 16 billion barrels, with a mean estimate of 10.4 billion barrels. That is comparable to the 10.6 billion barrels that the USGS estimated were in the NPRA in 2002, and which has been downgraded by 90%, above.

This is pretty big news - I've not followed any of the details around prior geologic predictions on oil and gas but this seems to be a critial change.

JCL 03-02-2011 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by X5rolls (Post 808693)
This is pretty big news - I've not followed any of the details around prior geologic predictions on oil and gas but this seems to be a critial change.

Yeah, that's what I thought when I read it. I first read an editorial today which was essentially saying "Why Isn't Anyone Talking About This?" It was linked to a source article, then another article, and eventually I got back to the USGS press release from October 2010. That press release didn't seem to generate much reasoned debate, and that is unfortunate IMO.

X5rolls 03-02-2011 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 808698)
Yeah, that's what I thought when I read it. I first read an editorial today which was essentially saying "Why Isn't Anyone Talking About This?" It was linked to a source article, then another article, and eventually I got back to the USGS press release from October 2010. That press release didn't seem to generate much reasoned debate, and that is unfortunate IMO.

Yes, that is unfortunate. Big bells should be ringing. This puts a big priority on further exploration in Alaska, the continental US and our coastal waters IMO. We have to get a handle on what reality is. Quickly.

JCL 03-02-2011 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by X5rolls (Post 808699)
Yes, that is unfortunate. Big bells should be ringing. This puts a big priority on further exploration in Alaska, the continental US and our coastal waters IMO. We have to get a handle on what reality is. Quickly.

The down-estimate was a product of a significant exploratory drilling program. There doesn't seem to be the political will on either side of the spectrum to drill in the ANWR, and extrapolating from the findings documented above, it may not ever be worth drilling there.

Knowing that vast parts of Alaska do not have the oil that they were previously supposed to have, perhaps effort could be put into starting to affect demand.

Quicksilver 03-02-2011 09:23 PM

Just imagine the average go to work Joe/Jane waking up to a sign at a local California gas station that said $9.63 a gallon. Nope I'm not kidding. It was an electronic sign programed from another location so the attendant couldn't change it right away. But I can't help thinking how that sign must have woke up a bunch of folks way better then their morning coffee. :rofl:

Fraser 03-02-2011 09:44 PM

Yesterday I paid the equivalent of US$6 for a US gallon of 95RON. Fuel is even more expensive in the UK and Europe. It's about time the USA shared some of the pain where fuel has been too cheap for too long and has lead to a culture of building and buying cars with very poor fuel efficiency.

Quicksilver 03-03-2011 12:02 AM

Like I said it was a electronic error. The actual price at the pump was $3.69

Fraser 03-03-2011 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quicksilver (Post 808787)
Like I said it was a electronic error.

Saw that. My post about "sharing the pain", if that's what you are referring to, was just a general comment about the possibility of fuel in the US going to $5-6 a gallon.

X5rolls 03-03-2011 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 808716)
The down-estimate was a product of a significant exploratory drilling program. There doesn't seem to be the political will on either side of the spectrum to drill in the ANWR, and extrapolating from the findings documented above, it may not ever be worth drilling there.

Knowing that vast parts of Alaska do not have the oil that they were previously supposed to have, perhaps effort could be put into starting to affect demand.

I think things can be done in parallel. Walking from exploration doesn't do anything but put it off till later when scarcity is higher. I think there is a bigger responsibility to know exactly what resources actually do exist. Regardless if they are used now, in the future or never. Not knowing seems unwise IMO.

X5rolls 03-03-2011 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fraser (Post 808757)
Yesterday I paid the equivalent of US$6 for a US gallon of 95RON. Fuel is even more expensive in the UK and Europe. It's about time the USA shared some of the pain where fuel has been too cheap for too long and has lead to a culture of building and buying cars with very poor fuel efficiency.

WOW.

Thanks but I'd like to avoid the pain just because others think we should experience it.

"Time for the USA to share the pain."

Now that is a quote.

Fraser 03-03-2011 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by X5rolls (Post 808909)
WOW.

Thanks but I'd like to avoid the pain just because others think we should experience it.

"Time for the USA to share the pain."

Now that is a quote.

Just having a dig. Every time I've travelled to the US I've always been extra jealous about the price of your fuel.

X5rolls 03-03-2011 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fraser (Post 808951)
Just having a dig. Every time I've travelled to the US I've always been extra jealous about the price of your fuel.


I'll say we have it good - many in the US might not know how good. However, driving habits changed dramatically when gas went to $4 gallon here previously. If it goes there again the same will happen and we will see more smaller cars with higher mileage being sold.

Fortunately for the enthusiast (me being one of course) there are a bunch of new small cars that are great on mileage and have premium interiors, handle well and are generally better than any small car we had available before.

Quicksilver 03-08-2011 11:40 AM

Now above $4.00 a gallon for premium and it aint even spring yet.

JCL 03-08-2011 07:04 PM

Took our new rapid transit line (light rail) downtown for meetings today. Two blocks walk to the station, then $2.10 to ride it a few stops. Haven't noticed the gas prices lately.

Quicksilver 03-08-2011 07:15 PM

I couldn't even get close to my budget $3.99 station so I ended up at a Union Station down the street where the price was $4.09. I pumped 12.924 Gals for a total of $52.98. But that's cool. I also re-charged my senior Clipper Transit card and will be taking public transit when I can just like JCL..... .:thumbup:

Fraser 03-09-2011 04:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quicksilver (Post 810333)
I couldn't even get close to my budget $3.99 station so I ended up at a Union Station down the street where the price was $4.09. I pumped 12.924 Gals for a total of $52.98. But that's cool. I also re-charged my senior Clipper Transit card and will be taking public transit when I can just like JCL..... .:thumbup:

As I said. It's time you lot shared the pain. Over $6.00 a gallon here now for decent octane, no-ethanol, petrol. Diesel is about the same.
My E53 3.0d is okay with 8-9 litres/100km but it''s almost time to park the old 3.9-litre V8 Range Rover with its 13 litres/100km (nanny pace) and 17 litres/100km (trying to keep up to the 3.0d).

Quicksilver 03-09-2011 12:01 PM

Hey maybe we could all do some hypermiling.

I saw this on Good Morning America. I forgot people did this. Some of the stuff they do (like coasting) when ever possible and a few other interesting methods have to drive other drivers Bananas and has to be dangerous.

What is hypermiling? According to a a fantastic August 2006 story in the Washington Post, it is a method of increasing your car's gas mileage by making skillful changes in the way you drive, allowing you to save gas and thereby have an easier time withstanding the rising oil and gas prices.

Hypermiling :: Even without a hybrid car, no more need to compare gas prices

Dannyell 03-09-2011 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quicksilver (Post 810452)
Hey maybe we could all do some hypermiling.

I saw this on Good Morning America. I forgot people did this. Some of the stuff they do (like coasting) when ever possible and a few other interesting methods have to drive other drivers Bananas and has to be dangerous.

What is hypermiling? According to a a fantastic August 2006 story in the Washington Post, it is a method of increasing your car's gas mileage by making skillful changes in the way you drive, allowing you to save gas and thereby have an easier time withstanding the rising oil and gas prices.

Hypermiling :: Even without a hybrid car, no more need to compare gas prices

Coasting to a red light to avoid making a full stop and using neutral going down the hills...

Anything else might be too extreme.

I have seen a few videos as well...but honestly some of those techniques applied in day to day traffic would be chaotic.

Back to the rising fuel prices...I am driving an 06 Jetta TDI so I can't really complain that much.

Quicksilver 03-09-2011 02:26 PM

I was looking at a VW TDI. It was missing a few creature comforts I was expecting. But the big turn off was the salesmen. They were worse than leaches. No matter how many times I said I wanted to look they kept up badgering me. First one salesman, then another, then the manager. I finally asked "do you fellas understand english? They just kept it up. I finally gave up and left.

Quicksilver 03-09-2011 09:18 PM

WOW. These are amazing gas prices. Watch the video.......

Rising gas prices hit Mississippi the hardest - Mar. 9, 2011

Fraser 03-09-2011 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quicksilver (Post 810480)
But the big turn off was the salesmen. They were worse than leaches. No matter how many times I said I wanted to look they kept up badgering me.

Same here. I hate it. You just can't go into some dealerships and have a quiet look around without some idiot pestering you. Then it others places the salesman won't even look at you ... even when you want to talk to him!

JCL 03-11-2011 01:56 PM

Back on $5 per gallon gasoline in the US....

Michael Graetz argues that it is absolutely necessary, and more. He is a professor at Columbia, and author of "The End of Energy - The Unmaking of America's Environment, Security, and Independence".

His opinion is that it isn't a foreign policy problem, or a supply problem, but rather a failure of domestic policy over the last 40 years.

Quote:

Decades after the Arab oil embargo, we accept instability and even war in the Middle East as inevitable. We take it for granted that we will pay the costs in lives and treasure. And although we know that high gasoline prices change people's behavior, Congress refuses to impose taxes that would raise petroleum prices, even though it could devise a way to return all of the revenues from such taxes to the American people based on their household size or level of income. As a result, our growing oil consumption and our reliance on imports continue.
Recommended reading.

The high cost of oil - Los Angeles Times

Quicksilver 03-11-2011 06:12 PM

Apparently Obama agrees with him. He said so today during his news conference.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 811082)
Back on $5 per gallon gasoline in the US....

Michael Graetz argues that it is absolutely necessary, and more. He is a professor at Columbia, and author of "The End of Energy - The Unmaking of America's Environment, Security, and Independence".

His opinion is that it isn't a foreign policy problem, or a supply problem, but rather a failure of domestic policy over the last 40 years.



Recommended reading.

The high cost of oil - Los Angeles Times


Fraser 03-12-2011 12:27 AM

Seems like a simple equation to me.

Affluent country (ie., the USA,) + cheap automotive fuel (historically the case in the US) = culture of wasting fuel (in car design, car purchasing patterns, and probably car use as well).

amacman 03-12-2011 01:32 AM

here is a simpler equation
asset bubbles
oil is priced in dollars
the dollar is no longer considered stable
the euro will take over as world currency

Fraser 03-12-2011 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by amacman (Post 811185)
the euro will take over as world currency


In your dreams.

JCL 03-12-2011 01:52 AM

Another simple equation:

4% of the world's population
25% of the world's annual oil consumption
(from the article linked above)

Works fine for a few decades until the rest of the world decides they want their piece of the dream as well. And they have money now, so they can compete for the (limited) oil.

JCL 03-12-2011 01:53 AM

Not a hope that the euro becomes the world's currency IMO

Fraser 03-12-2011 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 811192)
Another simple equation:

4% of the world's population
25% of the world's annual oil consumption
(from the article linked above)

Works fine for a few decades until the rest of the world decides they want their piece of the dream as well. And they have money now, so they can compete for the (limited) oil.

Yep.

Fraser 03-12-2011 01:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JCL (Post 811194)
Not a hope that the euro becomes the world's currency IMO

Yep again. Any fool can see it will be the Aussie dollar... or perhaps the Yuan?

amacman 03-12-2011 01:58 AM

see the part about the failure of domestic policy over the last 40 years .

and it won`t be entirely the euro as other currencies are moving to take a place also so possibly 3 currencies in place of the dollar .
don`t think it can`t happen to the USA
it happened to the UK . remember when we ruled an empire . remember when the £ was devalued .

amacman 03-12-2011 01:59 AM

the yuan will be another of the 3 .

Fraser 03-12-2011 02:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by amacman (Post 811198)
don`t think it can`t happen to the USA
it happened to the UK . remember when we ruled an empire . remember when the £ was devalued .

All part of life's rich tapestry. Persians, Greeks, Romans ... Brits, Yanks. They all come and go.

pikereen 03-01-2012 10:51 PM

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TheGodfather 03-01-2012 11:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pikereen (Post 868502)
Hi,

I am pikereen.


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Viperfreak2 03-02-2012 09:40 AM

One world currency. We can call them 'credits'

Oh, that's a Biblical prophesy isn't it....kinda like the fall of the 5th Roman Empire in Nebuchanezzers dream.

X5Sport 03-02-2012 05:16 PM

Petrol in the UK hit an average of $9.65c per imperial Gallon today. New record price. Diesel is even worse at over $10 a gallon - also a record. My average annual mileage has gone from 15,000 to under 5,000.


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