| anerbe |
07-28-2009 09:19 AM |
nature of the business in general would put the vehicle on a bell cure on reliability, with the middle years the most robust. of course this not include re-sourcing of parts to different suppliers. depending if the re-source / re-development is due to a quality issue or strategic - the OEM may know the resulting reliability, but it's a crap shoot for the public which part is better until field data becomes available.
initial launch of the vehicle will definitely have it's bugs - some parts will be over-engineered, while others under-engineered. you just can't simulate all real world conditions. as field data comes in, parts are improved to address these issues. over-engineered parts are then reviewed for PCO/cost saving ideas. typically, most of these should be sorted out after 3 years from launch, as part change can take over 2 years (time varies depending on severity). after this "peak" of reliability, the vehicle is continued to be reviewed for PCO/Cost saving ideas, where parts are reviewed for reduction in material/resourcing costs without "degredation" in quality. the level at which they carry out cost saving ideas depends on invested costs vs. planned return after implementation. however, when parts are re-engineered, reliability results are again unknown.
ultimately - not including changes in suppliers for strategic purposes, 4-5 years is typically the best in reliability, closely followed by the 6+year models, then from 3 to 1 year models. mid cycle changes also bring in more chance for issues, so part reliability depends on if it was updated or not.
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