Quote:
Originally Posted by bcredliner
Currently the only measurement of infected individuals are those that are hospitalized. We are just starting to estimate the overall infection rate. The more testing the more accurate the measurement. As long as the overall infection rate is greater than one infected individual infecting only one other the virus is not under control.
Individuals that choose to resist or ignore the guidelines intended to reduce the number infected by another to less than one person are part of extending the length of time the guidelines will be needed, contributing to extending the time they will not be working and the negative impact on the economy. As long as citizens resist what is necessary to stop the spread of the virus the longer the associated difficulties in our personal lives will continue.
The health care system becomes a problem when there are no guidelines. But, the most important reason to continue guidelines is that people are dying. If one was told they will get the virus in no uncertain terms, and they will infect their loved ones, perhaps they would think differently about rather to err on the side of caution or not.
The is no likely percent of how many will be infected. But, it is certain that the more people that do not do their part the higher that percent will be. Nor is there a likely percent of immunity that experts can predict will be enough. Eighty percent of 380 million means the 76 million will still be infected and the corresponding death rate in just the US.
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"Hammer and dance" is the most probable and workable method to restarting the economy. Hammer being the stay at home mandate and dance being the limited release of the work force back into their perspective professional fields. For instance reducing the amount of people per carriage riding the subway.
Enforcing the social distance rules. Reducing the capacity for each and every venue, public gatherings. Letting the athletes play in the fields with limited number of camera crew, but no spectators, etc.
Sending everyone back to work all at once either in May or June and hoping that everything will work out is simply a fantasy at this moment.
In fact, such action will most likely create the following scenario:
For 2~3 weeks everything is seemingly great and humming along. Then the new infection number starts piling up and hospital emergency capacity gets overrun quickly.
More social panic ensues.
This is not fear mongering, this is prediction by experts and people who studies pandemics for a living.
"Tiptoeing back to normal" is our best bet at having an economy while keeping most people from getting infected.
You can read up about the interview by The Daily's Michael Barbaro for today's segment.