RE: X5 Unrelated, but Good Information in Times of Need

bcredliner · #1 04-16-2020, 03:09 PM

Currently the only measurement of infected individuals are those that are hospitalized. We are just starting to estimate the overall infection rate. The more testing the more accurate the measurement. As long as the overall infection rate is greater than one infected individual infecting only one other the virus is not under control.

Individuals that choose to resist or ignore the guidelines intended to reduce the number infected by another to less than one person are part of extending the length of time the guidelines will be needed, contributing to extending the time they will not be working and the negative impact on the economy. As long as citizens resist what is necessary to stop the spread of the virus the longer the associated difficulties in our personal lives will continue.

The health care system becomes a problem when there are no guidelines. But, the most important reason to continue guidelines is that people are dying. If one was told they will get the virus in no uncertain terms, and they will infect their loved ones, perhaps they would think differently about rather to err on the side of caution or not.

The is no likely percent of how many will be infected. But, it is certain that the more people that do not do their part the higher that percent will be. Nor is there a likely percent of immunity that experts can predict will be enough. Eighty percent of 380 million means the 76 million will still be infected and the corresponding death rate in just the US.

crystalworks · #2 04-16-2020, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

Currently the only measurement of infected individuals are those that are hospitalized. We are just starting to estimate the overall infection rate. The more testing the more accurate the measurement. As long as the overall infection rate is greater than one infected individual infecting only one other the virus is not under control.

I agree testing is paramount. But hospitalizations alone are certainly not the only measured infected individuals. Many, including asymptomatic people, have been tested and are recovering at home. They are also counted in the total infected cases.

I agree with the assumption that an R0 of > 1 means the virus is not under control. I'm not sure I agree with an assumption that we can get the R0 under 1 until we have a vaccine (or build up a herd immunity). If that's the case, we can not keep people in their homes. They HAVE to work. The government is not going to pay everyone's bills. As long as we can keep the health care system from being overloaded, we may have to just be okay accepting whatever amount of people getting infected and possibly dying those numbers are. Just like we do the seasonal flu. It sucks, but I don't see an alternative.

Maruzo · #3 04-20-2020, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

Currently the only measurement of infected individuals are those that are hospitalized. We are just starting to estimate the overall infection rate. The more testing the more accurate the measurement. As long as the overall infection rate is greater than one infected individual infecting only one other the virus is not under control.

Individuals that choose to resist or ignore the guidelines intended to reduce the number infected by another to less than one person are part of extending the length of time the guidelines will be needed, contributing to extending the time they will not be working and the negative impact on the economy. As long as citizens resist what is necessary to stop the spread of the virus the longer the associated difficulties in our personal lives will continue.

The health care system becomes a problem when there are no guidelines. But, the most important reason to continue guidelines is that people are dying. If one was told they will get the virus in no uncertain terms, and they will infect their loved ones, perhaps they would think differently about rather to err on the side of caution or not.

The is no likely percent of how many will be infected. But, it is certain that the more people that do not do their part the higher that percent will be. Nor is there a likely percent of immunity that experts can predict will be enough. Eighty percent of 380 million means the 76 million will still be infected and the corresponding death rate in just the US.

"Hammer and dance" is the most probable and workable method to restarting the economy. Hammer being the stay at home mandate and dance being the limited release of the work force back into their perspective professional fields. For instance reducing the amount of people per carriage riding the subway.

Enforcing the social distance rules. Reducing the capacity for each and every venue, public gatherings. Letting the athletes play in the fields with limited number of camera crew, but no spectators, etc.

Sending everyone back to work all at once either in May or June and hoping that everything will work out is simply a fantasy at this moment.

In fact, such action will most likely create the following scenario:

For 2~3 weeks everything is seemingly great and humming along. Then the new infection number starts piling up and hospital emergency capacity gets overrun quickly.

More social panic ensues.

This is not fear mongering, this is prediction by experts and people who studies pandemics for a living.

"Tiptoeing back to normal" is our best bet at having an economy while keeping most people from getting infected.

You can read up about the interview by The Daily's Michael Barbaro for today's segment.

Clavurion · #4 04-20-2020, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maruzo

"Hammer and dance" is the most probable and workable method to restarting the economy. Hammer being the stay at home mandate and dance being the limited release of the work force back into their perspective professional fields. For instance reducing the amount of people per carriage riding the subway.

Enforcing the social distance rules. Reducing the capacity for each and every venue, public gatherings. Letting the athletes play in the fields with limited number of camera crew, but no spectators, etc.

Sending everyone back to work all at once either in May or June and hoping that everything will work out is simply a fantasy at this moment.

In fact, such action will most likely create the following scenario:

For 2~3 weeks everything is seemingly great and humming along. Then the new infection number starts piling up and hospital emergency capacity gets overrun quickly.

More social panic ensues.

This is not fear mongering, this is prediction by experts and people who studies pandemics for a living.

"Tiptoeing back to normal" is our best bet at having an economy while keeping most people from getting infected.

You can read up about the interview by The Daily's Michael Barbaro for today's segment.

The release of restrictions has to happen in partial steps because we'll see the the outcome after a few weeks the earliest. And everyone has to prepare for new restrictions if infections start rise up again too fast. As it seems children are likely to be the least affected and least contagious (due to immune response) so schools and day care centers could be be the first ones on the release.