Quote:
Originally Posted by andrewwynn
Look at some basic statistical realities; as of 9 may, the us hospitals are down below 20,000 beds used for covid; that is 2% of capability. CDC stopped posting updates after 9 may because the will show that the bed requirement is now 'below background noise' but people are afraid to go to the hospital to get their needed kidney or heart surgery it's not great.
With something like 50% of all covid deaths coming from old age homes, and that is maybe 1/2% of the population it makes them 200x more at risk; the high risk class needs to be protected and the rest will take care of itself the country has been ready to open before it closed. The closures were based on models that predicted 50-200x as many deaths.
The 'nearly 100k' deaths are also quite known to be padded; the CDC and Dr. Birx admitted this and advised this in plain english back in April maybe even March. Did anybody notice that flu deaths that were over 30,000 in march suddenly dropped to zero before may? Those people with flu were of course still dying they just called it a covid death.
So; yup 1000s still dying of covid, but the % of which are actually caused by a heart attack or a car accident are literally impossible to know because doctors are putting covid on the death certificate on advice of CDC (though Colorado recently took 200 off their cv death count do to 'not really covid'); the other 49 states have yet to do the same.
If you plotted the actual location of covid deaths on a map it would look like the skinny red lines on an eyeball; 99% of the area of the country is not affected. approximately 1% of the population has officially contracted covid, and 1/33 of 1% is on the official death toll (meaning closer to 1/50 of 1% of the population had a mortal combat they lost).
Had the models been more accurate back in march the world wold not have closed down and the death tolls would not be significantly different (example: sweden). Keep the high-risk people as safe as reasonably possible just like the rules for flu. take note that 92% of deaths include people with significant health risks such as high blood pressure (60%) and obesity (50%). With so many dying coming from old age homes, they may have been on their last month or 6 of life already and covid was just the last straw their weakened immune system couldn't take.
All that said, Next year if covid is still around (sars, the closest thing we have as an example just literally disappeared all on its own), it won't be the first time and we will have experience to use for guidance. The economy can rebound quite quickly because there will be a very strong push to get 'mission critical' manufacturing out of china, which will be a boon for companies to build plants and hire people in non-china locations like Indonesia but also in the USA when the labor cost isn't stupid expensive compared to the alternatives.
see this website from CDC: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html
look for the weekly report of hospitalizations and take note of the quick decline over the last two or three reported weeks and the oddly missing recent weeks. As long as covid cases can be coped with at a non increasing rate there is no reason the world can't be back in operation. |
Link would not let me get past the disclaimer. Probably a security setting on my computer.
Whether count is over or under the number of deaths the count is the only number we have to reference. How many do you think have died, how long before it reaches 100,000, and how long before the economy recovers is your guess?
Usually manufacturing follows the lowest labor rate around the world. Some manufacturing will come back but lots of focus will be on automation to minimize number of people rehired. Moving or major automating will not start until there is a good indication of long term demand. In the interim US based companies should already be implementing short term plans to hire back as few people as possible with changes that have a quick payback with little product demand. That said, we are breaking new ground so history could be worthless but I think major manufacturing will start with what has worked in the past.
I don't believe we have to accept that old people should be sacrificed for any reason. I think we are very capable of creating a plan that is best for all and the economy. Right now there is no plan at all which puts all aspects in jeopardy.
Deaths are not the only issue. Research has discovered that recovery does not mean there isn't permanent damage to all ages. We need to have universal measurements that all states implement that triggers stages of opening and drawbacks if things go the wrong direction. No plan will work unless enough of the population follows the guidelines to protect ourselves and others. I can't see how any approach is anything better than a guess with knowing so little about the virus and no applicable experience for a guide. Who knows what a good plan should be, especially when the US leadership can't even form a straight line to the john. Overall, thus far, it appears we are bent on feeding the virus.