Should I stay or should I go now? (X5 Buyout)

[JonK]

It is just like the old song in the 80's
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ag8J2NMYmc

Inspired by BlueX54.4's previous post,
http://www.xoutpost.com/x5-e53-forum/...i-keep-x5.html

I picked up the phone to speak with a local BMW Sales Manager to give me a buyout price with no CPO two days ago.
FYI. Residual at the end of 39 month lease (due 11/14/08) Approx. $34.5K, with 50K miles, no Nav, No Sports, with everything else on.. Got lease almost on MSRP at 60K.

I start talking about my buddy in NY who's been offered $23K to open up the the talk, sorry Mr BlueX5 it was almost anonymous, and I told him I need a best buyout price.
He came back to me with $25.7K good till 20th of this month. He stated that it doesn't include last month lease payment on Nov, it is bit more because I have over-mileage (not relevant), I have 15k mi/yr allowance.

I have performed interim oil change myself in case I keep the car and during the free maintenance period, they serviced all brakes, transfer cases I think has been taken care of. Based on input of you folks I don't think I will be due for major upkeep cost.

There are few future concerns though,
1. Possibility of instating stiff gas guzzler tax with new administration?
2. Crazy gas price.
3. Guilt associate with not attributing on decreasing foreign energy dependency.
4. It would cost me about $2.5K to return, 1200 for new tires, and curb rash repair, and paint job on rear bumper.
5. My small business has taken hit last few months and looks like it will continue for a while, so I don't want over 1k $/month payment I initially planned.

I feel that I could squeeze home more close to $23.5K. The dealer I am dealing with is notorious for padding everything due to recent multi-million dollar expension.Any input will be appreciated. I was advised to wait to have her cpo'ed but $9K off the residual seem somewhat attractive.

Any input will be appreciated.
Thanks in advance.
Best wishes for all of you good folks in this trying time...