Does residual % apply to MSRP or negotiated price?

[SoCal_M3]

I'm looking at a 42 month lease w/ a 48% residual on a 35d.

For illustration, if the car is $70K MSRP, with $4500 eco credit and $3500 off as well, the final price of the car is $62K.

Will the residual be 48% of $70,000 which is $33,600?

Or will the residual be 48% of $62,000 which is $29,760?

[cpiguy]

Residual % is always based off the MSRP.