Decisions, decisions....

[PUZZ]

My 08 4.8i with 22,000 currently is coming off lease in May 2011. The replacement cost for a new 5.0 with adaptive drive and equipped like mine is now over $72K vs. the $66K that my car stickered for and the $60K they based the lease off of.

So my quandary is this. Seeing that I can't think of another car that I'd rather be driving right now given my lifesty, do I just buy my car off the lease and keep it, or get a refreshed one, but maybe go down to the 3.5 or even the diesel? I've always turned cars in for something else, but I really do like the X5. Has anyone gone from the 4.8 to the new 3.5? My buyout is approx. 40 or 42K

Thoughts are appreciated.

[JCL]

If you like the car, keep it. Just don't buy it out per the lease contract, plan to return it and see what they will take for it. Everything is negotiable.

[alexmish]

I had the same dilemma just couple of months ago, and eventually I did the math + factor of "new car enjoyment", and decided on 2011 35d (vs 2008 48i) !!! I am very happy that I've made that decision!

[PUZZ]

How do you like the diesel vs. the 4.8 that you had? How's the tranny? Just curious.

Also, did BMW want to play ball when it came to negotiating the buyout?

[ard]

You could probably get it from your dealer at your "contract" price, but with a CPO warranty added on. Which BTW increases the resale value as well, even if you sell in 2 years.

[roadkillrob]

I have fought with this decision and in the end it usually costs as much to drive the old one as the new one. If you buyout is 42k and it will only have 1 year of warranty left on it, you will need to have it CPO'd, which could cost a couple grand, but even if you work it in and pay 42k for it CPO, you would be looking at 5 years of payments at almost $800 a month (and 5 years is too long to be paying for the car - you should have it paid for by the time the warranty expires which is 4 years and would cost almost $1000 a month).

So let's assume you paid it off in 4 years, now you have a 6 year old car worth 10-15 grand (just a guess) that has no warranty left and will be expensive to fix and at the age and miles that will require repair.

You could lease a new 35i pretty loaded up for $700 or $300 less a month than the payment on the old car (and you get a new car), it is just as fast as the old V8 (although the V8 sounded better for sure), you get all the new updated stuff and the facelift. You also save $14400 over the payment you will be making (although you will only have the car 3 years instead of 4).

All the math is lot's of guesswork, but ultimately it will cost you basically the same to drive the new one as keep the old one and in my experience there are only 2 senarios that make the owning worth considering - first is the mileage, if you drive too much, the lease is too expensive or just not possible (doesn't look to be an issue with your driving, if you only did 22k in 3 years, then you could do a 10k lease and save some money) or the second scenario is that you keep the car for 10 years and hopefully get lucky and don't have any major repairs.

If you like to drive new and are not going to keep your old one for 10+ years, then just getting another lease is probably no more expensive for you and let's you drive a new fully warranted vehicle.

[two-five boy]

The acceleration #'s for the new 35i is about equal to your V-8, with much improved mpg figures due to the 8-spd tranny, while the 35D has gobs of tq (425tq/265hp), but is a little slower and louder than the gas counterparts. Test drive both to figure out which one you like more.

As for your current X, has it been relatively trouble-free? That would be a major deciding factor as these cars like to pop up w/electrical gremlins every so often. Are there any visual blemishes, tire tread depth? Both of these could cost you upon lease return.

I would go into this w/an open mind, and a set budget for both new and used. Don't tip your hand about your ultimate intention until the #'s are to your liking.

[ard]

Originally Posted by roadkillrob

the second scenario is that you keep the car for 10 years and hopefully get lucky and don't have any major repairs.

If you like to drive new and are not going to keep your old one for 10+ years, then just getting another lease is probably no more expensive for you and let's you drive a new fully warranted vehicle.

Interesting analysis, two thoughts:

1. Had you financed the purchase with a 60 or 72 month note, and planned on an extended warranty, you'd not be "paying on a car with no warranty". You'd be able to own it at 100k miles and have a generally good idea of it's dependability.

2. The costs of major issues after 100k miles can be major, but is rare. If you keep a car 10 years and look at "What costs will there be from 5years to 10 years" the answer may be $10, 15k- as a maximum. $15k over 5 years, 3k per year, 250 per month.

What are your car payments?

And that is a maximum.... chances are that, if you've maintained the car and it hasn't been a horror show over the course of the first 100k warrantied miles, it may be a good risk.

I cannot disagree with the "if you want to drive new" sentiment... but so many people are secretly driven by that desire, and use the rest of it all as justification.

A