Jaba,
You are right about cashing in in this series. It is so predictable that the spread doesn't change your thinking. Tonight, ORL +1.5 and tomorrow LAL -6. Public opinion thinks CAVs will comeback and win (60% on CAVs -1.5) But i think otherwise. I think ORL will take a 3-1 lead going to Cleveland. CAVs hardy competed in Game 3 with Lebron scoring all his points. The same with KoBe, with his teammates failing to make plays, Nuggets bench just ate them alive in game 4. I am looking for ORL take game 4 with +1.5 and LAL blow out game 5 with -6 at home. ORL are LAL are just another teams at home. We'll see.

Quit schooling the poor chap. I can imagine what kind of reaction he'd get on a real basketball purist forum with posts like his.:rofl:

It is called "when your team sucks, you take the game in your own hands". Look at the game he scores 81 points when his team trailing 20 points vs. Toronto. All of them failed to make plays thats when SHOW TIME is on. Switch is on and he won the game all by himself. Thats why he got paid 10 times more than his teammates. Thats why he is the captain of the team, he calls plays just like the Quarterback. He runs the SHOW in L.A and he deserves it. Thats what he does to get paid as much as he is today. You sounds like all of the sudden his teammates dont want to give him the balls. Have you ever heard of coaching? You can't go against your coach decision or you will get benched. If the coach sees the need of making his teammates get more involved in the game without Kobe has to carry the full load, then he doesn't get the ball as often as he does. I can imagine what kind of responses you would get with you post your opinion on the real sport forum. You have no idea what you are talking about.

Novax5,

True that. Betting on the Lakers and Nuggets series is seriously a no brainer. When I found out Spooner and Salvatore where the refs for game 4, I was certain Denver was going to win it.

Now what? Phil calls out the refs for inconsistent calls that dictate the result of the game (e.g. Denver 49 free throw attempts, lakers called for touch fouls for breathing on the Nuggets, Lakers aren't allowed to play physical, supposed flagrant on Dhantay Jones, etc)

Consequently, the league will take notice since their integrity is placed in the spotlight and make adjustments by assigning refs that statistically call in favor of the home team or at least call the games fairly to make up for game 4. It is expected that lakers should and would come out with the W for game 5 considering the circumstances.

As far as bets are concerned, I'm going with the Lakers with that spread for game 5. I'm not betting as much as I did with Game 4 since I was extremely confident that the nuggets would come out with the W for that game. If Lakers win tomorrow, I'm not betting on Game 6 regardless of the odds. If the series goes to game 7, you know where my money is going at.

With the Cavs however, you never know what could happen so I'm not to confident on placing money on that series. I painfully lost a significant amount of money during the 2006 finals. Had I known that D. wade (the poster boy of the nba during that time) was going to get MJ treatment and get sent to the free throw line to get his championship (26 free throws in the finals, I forgot which game) then I would've thought twice about betting on the series. Still, in a way, Miami Heat did earn the championship since the Mavs literally laid an egg in each of the 4 games after their first 2 wins.

Here is the catch in ORL-CAV series. CAVs favoured large on ORL at home -9 both games. And ORL still came out with both ATS wins. When they returned home CAVS went down south the spread with each game they favoured less than 2 points. Public opinion bite each times, more than 65% each game 3 and 4. Public opinion is wrong each and everytime in this series. I suspect it is wrong again tonight with 60% on CAVs -1.5. This seires is hurting the public. You might want to look into that. With the reverse on LAL series, Nuggets cashed in 3 out of 4 times. So it seems to me that public will tend to take DEN and CAVs both games coming up. That leads me to think with public won most of the games already going against the public opinion is the right choice.

You are right and I've already looked at the statistics. Problem is, even though I'd put my money on Orlando I am more confident on the Lakers for Game 5. Orlando just posts too much of a risk for me. I'd rather be up with game 5 of the Lakers Nuggets series rather than doubling or losing what I earned in another series.

I only start betting mid series when there is some statistical data to work with. I've almost always ended up regretting putting money down on the first game of a series. Either way, I still believe it's going to be a Lakers-Cavs Finals. Especially in this time, the league, networks, teams etc need to generate as much cash flow as possible. Those two teams and two superstars would rake in the most money. After all, the NBA is a business.

Ahh...what a finish !!!!!!!!!! :)

jaba,
i dont want to say i told you so. ORL takes 3-1 going to cleveland. public opinion got crushed again in this series. 65% and above on CLE on all 4 games. I knew that -1.5 was a bait and again they bite. look at the matchups ORL owns CLE in every way, ignore the Lebron hype. They will favour big in game 5 in cleveland and public will bite on CLE again. So far ORL is 4-0 ATS against CLE. Public will thing it swing back to CLE to even out the losses. Wrong, Matchups prove CLE doesn't stand a chance against ORL. ORL is a more complete team to place your doughs on.

Yup, you were spot on with your prediction. I won't argue with you on that. The public must be hurting right now. Either way, I really wouldn't have been comfortable betting on that game. Again, Nuggets-Lakers is a different story.

It was a really good game... as a fan, but it must be really frustrating if you were a Cavs player or a coach. They dominated Orlando in every major category, but wind up losing... That three point line is killing the Cavs and would kill any other team.

Everyone keeps talking about Cavs supporting cast to step up and help LeBron and score some points. The way I see it (And I said it before) if they want help lebron, they need to defend the 3 point line!!! They blew a 17 and 23 points leads in the first two games by giving up easy threes…. They were not even running at the shooter yesterday on some of the shots. They made Rafer Allston look like Jordan yesterday!!

I keep hearing that Orlando dominated the CAVS... that is nonsense. As far as I'm concerned this series could have easily been Cavs 3: Orl 1. Reshard Lewis won two games for them on a last min shot!

Finally, I think the Cavs bench is Garbage, and the Cavs coach is not very impressive. The story line yesterday was the same in games 1 and 2!! He should call Popavich and ask for advice. Why in the Hell did he put LeBron on Rafer??? While having a 6”3’ (delante) defending a 6”10’ (Hedo sp?)…. I don’t get it!!


Ok, Now I got this out my system, I can try and get some work done.