OK : Who's gonna win it? McCain/Palin or Obama/Biden?

[AVB-AMG]

Ok, the 2nd Presidential Debate has now concluded. Does anyone who has not "voted" here wish to do so?

Also, I am curious if anyone who was previously undecided now knows who they will vote for and why?

AVB-AMG

[MrLabGuy]

Originally Posted by AVB-AMG

Ok, the 2nd Presidential Debate has now concluded. Does anyone who has not "voted" here wish to do so?

Also, I am curious if anyone who was previously undecided now know who they will vote for and why?

AVB-AMG

My vote stays the same...Obama/Biden will win the election barring no October Surprise.

[AVB-AMG]

Ok, the 3rd and final Presidential Debate has now concluded. Does anyone who has not "voted" here who was still "undecided" going into this debate, wish to do so now? (Is that even possible in this forum at this late date...?)

Also, I am curious if anyone who was previously undecided now knows who they will vote for, what are the main reasons for your choice?

AVB-AMG

[AzX5]

For those that think it is "in the bag" for Obama based on the so-called polls, here is a little history of polls in late October vs. actual results in early November:

Oct 16, 1976: Carter leads Ford by 6 points.
Election Results: Carter wins by 2 points.

Oct 27, 1980: Carter leads Reagan by 3 points.
Election Results: Reagan wins by 10 points.

Oct 15, 1984: Reagan leads Mondale by 4 points.
Election Results: Reagan wins in record landslide 19 points.

Oct 5, 1988: George H.W. Bush leads Dukakis by 2 points.
Election Results: Bush wins by 8 points.

Oct 18, 1992: Clinton leads Bush by whopping 15 points.
Election Results: Clinton wins by only 5 points.

Oct 22, 1996: Clinton leads Dole by whopping 22 points.
Election Results: Clinton wins by only 9 points.

Oct 3, 2000: Gore leads George W. Bush by 6 points.
Election Results: Bush wins in a squeaker.

2004: Polls showed a virtual tie between Kerry and Bush.
Election Results: Bush wins by 2 points.

2008: Obama leads by 4 to 8 points.
Election Results: TBD

Anyone notice a pattern here?

[Eric5273]

Originally Posted by AzX5

Anyone notice a pattern here?

Yes. The pattern is that the Republicans always get more votes than the polls show. In fact, they also always get more votes than the exit polls show too. Either people are ashamed to be Republicans so they lie and say they are voting for a Democrat (or in the case of exit polls, they lie and say they voted for a Democrat), or else their is major fraud.

[AzX5]

Or an alternative opinion is that the pollsters only poll in left leaning areas (such as inner-cities, colleges, etc.) as to skew the poll results hoping this will lead to less turnout by right leaning voters or cause undecided voters to vote for the "leading" candidate as to not want to vote for the "loser".

[AzX5]

Or another opinion is Democrats are more likely to answer the phones during polling season and say who they are voting for, but come election time are more likely to not vote than a Republican or conservative-leaning independent.

Also, when the Democratic candidate is leading by quite a bit in the polls, this is further incentive to not vote if you are a Democrat. Therefore, the pollsters do themselves a disservice if in fact they are liberal-biased in their poll questions and/or polling areas.

[Eric5273]

Originally Posted by AzX5

Or another opinion is Democrats are more likely to answer the phones during polling season and say who they are voting for, but come election time are more likely to not vote than a Republican or conservative-leaning independent.

Also, when the Democratic candidate is leading by quite a bit in the polls, this is further incentive to not vote if you are a Democrat. Therefore, the pollsters do themselves a disservice if in fact they are liberal-biased in their poll questions and/or polling areas.

This doesn't explain the exit polling though. In 2000 and 2004, the exit polling matched the actual polling from the day before. The results were different though.

[AzX5]

Originally Posted by Eric5273

This doesn't explain the exit polling though. In 2000 and 2004, the exit polling matched the actual polling from the day before. The results were different though.

Agreed, but again the exit-polling areas could also have been heavily weighted in more liberal biased locations such as inner-cities, college towns, coastal states, etc.

[Meiac09]

Here's my conundrum. I have and empty absentee ballot sitting on my desk, and can't decide who I want to be my next president.
A dumbass hockey mom, or a slippery politician who changes his story, has absolutely no spine (voting record?) and won't admit to something that he's slipped out multiple times anyway.