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  #21  
Old 02-25-2011, 02:31 AM
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I found this report interesting. Paul Sankey of Deutsche Bank - The End of the Oil Age, 2011 and Beyond. An analysis of supply and demand, key factors, and lots of projections. Recommended reading for those that haven't seen it.

What I found interesting was the strong expectation of electric vehicles becoming a factor.

The End of the Oil Age - 2011 and Beyond: A Reality Check
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  #22  
Old 02-25-2011, 12:40 PM
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Why are we worried about this. I thought the world was run by 5 people....
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  #23  
Old 02-25-2011, 01:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JCL View Post
I paid $1.37 per litre yesterday, equates to $6.22 per gallon, $5.18 for the smaller US gallon (dollar is at par).

Don't think we will see it drop back down to $5 per gallon anytime soon. Forecast is for over $6 per US gallon here in the next two months. Hard to understand why the US is still cheaper, given that Canada is your largest supplier of oil. Time to raise those taxes.
I understand the economic argument for raising taxes on gas to lower consumption. It is a reasonable position in terms of cause and effect.

However, for many in the US, not all of course, the thought of raising taxes is just not justified. We are sitting on a significant amount of untapped oil in the US. It amazes me that we are not using our own resources more.

Ultimately, we will be forced to drill as the global supply dwindles but why wait? The new uncertainty in Africa and the Middle East will not do much to depress oil prices obviously. The volatility in oil prices and ultimately availability short and mid term will play havoc on our markets and the economy.

It is politically difficult to allow more drilling and increase refining capabilities. So what. It is called leadership, doing the things that are hard to do and being successful at it. That is what all politicians say they are about. They either all lie or do not have the guts to do what they say they will do.

Many countries do not know why we do not have higher gas prices and higher taxes.

Does not mean we should though.

The future isn't oil but we should limit our exposure to these increasing supply and market risks.
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  #24  
Old 02-25-2011, 03:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by X5rolls View Post
I understand the economic argument for raising taxes on gas to lower consumption. It is a reasonable position in terms of cause and effect.

However, for many in the US, not all of course, the thought of raising taxes is just not justified. We are sitting on a significant amount of untapped oil in the US. It amazes me that we are not using our own resources more.

Ultimately, we will be forced to drill as the global supply dwindles but why wait? The new uncertainty in Africa and the Middle East will not do much to depress oil prices obviously. The volatility in oil prices and ultimately availability short and mid term will play havoc on our markets and the economy.

It is politically difficult to allow more drilling and increase refining capabilities. So what. It is called leadership, doing the things that are hard to do and being successful at it. That is what all politicians say they are about. They either all lie or do not have the guts to do what they say they will do.

Many countries do not know why we do not have higher gas prices and higher taxes.

Does not mean we should though.

The future isn't oil but we should limit our exposure to these increasing supply and market risks.
It is a myth that the U.S. does not produce significant amounts of oil. We rank 3rd in daily production of oil. Here is a list of the top 20 oil producers in the world, and their daily production:

#20. Azerbaijan-1.0 million barrels ;
#19. United Kingdom- produces 1.3 million barrels ;
#18. Kazakhstan- produces 1.5 million barrels ;
#17. Libya- produces 1.7 million barrels;
#16. Algeria- produces 1.8 million barrels;
#15. Angola- produces 1.9 million barrels;
#14. Brazil- produces 2.0 million barrels;
#13. Norway- produces 2.1 million barrels;
#12. Nigeria- produces 2.2 million barrels;
#11. Venezuela- produces 2.3 million barrels;
#10. Kuwait- produces 2.4 million barrels;
#9. Iraq- produces 2.4 million barrels;
#8. United Arab Emirates- produce 2.4 million barrels;
#7. Canada- produces 2.6 million barrels;
#6. Mexico- produces 2.6 million barrels;
#5. China- produces 3.8 million barrels;
#4. Iran- produces 4.0 million barrels;
#3. United States- produces 5.4 million barrels;
#2. Saudi Arabia- produces 8.3 million barrels; and,
#1. Russia- produces 9.5 million barrels.
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  #25  
Old 02-25-2011, 08:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by X5rolls View Post
I understand the economic argument for raising taxes on gas to lower consumption. It is a reasonable position in terms of cause and effect.

However, for many in the US, not all of course, the thought of raising taxes is just not justified. We are sitting on a significant amount of untapped oil in the US. It amazes me that we are not using our own resources more.

Ultimately, we will be forced to drill as the global supply dwindles but why wait? The new uncertainty in Africa and the Middle East will not do much to depress oil prices obviously. The volatility in oil prices and ultimately availability short and mid term will play havoc on our markets and the economy.

It is politically difficult to allow more drilling and increase refining capabilities. So what. It is called leadership, doing the things that are hard to do and being successful at it. That is what all politicians say they are about. They either all lie or do not have the guts to do what they say they will do.

Many countries do not know why we do not have higher gas prices and higher taxes.

Does not mean we should though.

The future isn't oil but we should limit our exposure to these increasing supply and market risks.
My comments were rather glib, but I wasn't suggesting that prices should be raised just for the sake of it. I don't think that the future is oil either. I think that waiting until that date to start to take action is a huge problem. North American economies will have incredible pain through the adjustments that will be required when the age of cheap oil eventually ends. This is fundamentally a risk mitigation issue.

That mitigation should be multi-faceted, but could include things like requiring much higher fleet average fuel efficiencies, accelerating the shift away from traditional internal-combustion engines and developing alternative vehicle power sources, shifting city planning priorities to support urban development that integrates with public transit, and so on.

All this will cost money. The funding for that should come from current users of cheap oil, on the principle that some pain now will reduce the much greater pain that is coming later.

Continuing to consume ever more cheap oil in the coming years, and delaying taking action, will be disastrous. I don't think it is about increasing production, it is about developing alternatives, and influencing demand more than supply.

Yes, leadership will be required. I hope those in power can demonstrate it.
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  #26  
Old 02-25-2011, 08:59 PM
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Krimson

I don't understand your point. How much we produce has nothing to do with the amount we import at this current time.
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  #27  
Old 02-25-2011, 09:12 PM
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Originally Posted by JCL View Post
My comments were rather glib, but I wasn't suggesting that prices should be raised just for the sake of it. I don't think that the future is oil either. I think that waiting until that date to start to take action is a huge problem. North American economies will have incredible pain through the adjustments that will be required when the age of cheap oil eventually ends. This is fundamentally a risk mitigation issue.

That mitigation should be multi-faceted, but could include things like requiring much higher fleet average fuel efficiencies, accelerating the shift away from traditional internal-combustion engines and developing alternative vehicle power sources, shifting city planning priorities to support urban development that integrates with public transit, and so on.

All this will cost money. The funding for that should come from current users of cheap oil, on the principle that some pain now will reduce the much greater pain that is coming later.

Continuing to consume ever more cheap oil in the coming years, and delaying taking action, will be disastrous. I don't think it is about increasing production, it is about developing alternatives, and influencing demand more than supply.

Yes, leadership will be required. I hope those in power can demonstrate it.
I generally agree with your points. I'm still not a fan of increasing taxes for this purpose however.

What I've been thinking about and would advocate for is alignment between research at a national level in the private sector and within the university community (like what was done in the mid 20th century in the US), the capital investment community including venture capital and the Federal/State Gov'ts with tax INCENTIVES promoting investment.

If alignment between these groups were to happen, a focused effort of pure, applied, and theoretical science could produce advancements in conjunction with capitalism. The Gov't could provide a certain framework supporting the end result and encourages big oil companies and the distribution end of oil to develop new business models that gave them an incentive to become part of the solution vs. the problem.

Alternative energy opportunities abound but are not yet either ready for prime time or the national infrastructure including distribution has too many big obstacles to become a reality before the ultimate crisis based tipping point.

I'm not describing utopia since it has been done before, Bell Labs as an example of science, investment and commercialization. The WWII domestic effort etc.

Now this also takes leadership. Something that seems to be lacking.
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  #28  
Old 02-25-2011, 09:51 PM
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Helluva read, JCL...thanks. I must admit I skimmed some of the 59+ pages, as only someone in the biz, or a shut in, would pour over all the data...

I don't disagree on electric/battery powered/hybrid cars coming of age, (and the DB guys certainly spent most of the space on that 'support theme'); in my post above I was not being critical of the electric car, et al, developments, but my point is that most of the US car buyers are not running out to buy one, soon. And, most of the US car owners are not tossing their car(s) tomorrow or next year, for one, imo.

Add in the source of that 'electric power', here in the US, (coal 45%, nat gas 23%+, nuke 20%, etc.), and while non-gas cars may support some oil usage decrease, that electric power generation comes from 'somewhere'...
mostly coal and gas and, some nuke, in the US. Coal plants are under the gun emissions/improvement-wise, a new US nuke plant has not broken ground in over two decades, and natural gas seems to be the semi-good stuff no one really loves.

One of the umptyseven graphs, with projections, seems to tell the tale on current and projected consumption: most of the 'us', country-wise, will keep the lid on, so to speak, while China increases consumption considerably...fwiw.

Jumping ahead, post reading-wise, I'm with X5 rolls, in regards to his point(s) on making a long jump for national industry coupled with top level practical research getting us/NA to the next level. The last possible and least effective method, imo, is taxing the hell out of 'petroleum', letting those increased taxes slide into the general fund of gov't, and then hoping some litany of 'gov't programs' is going to lead the way...

Gov't has not had a successful inventive, money saving, energy saving program in my memory.

Increased taxes to guide or change or adjust social/econ behavior is not the way to proceed these days; it simply taxes JoeSixPack, (and 200 million others in the US), effects no real improvements, and the money is literally pissed away in 'the gov't'.

Didn't mean to get on my anti-gov't rant, but $4-5 buck gas is only going to pinch many in the short-medium term and, other than its speculative and irrational 'support base', it will do little to spur real adjustment in our energy practices and usage.
GL, mD

Quote:
Originally Posted by JCL View Post
I found this report interesting. Paul Sankey of Deutsche Bank - The End of the Oil Age, 2011 and Beyond. An analysis of supply and demand, key factors, and lots of projections. Recommended reading for those that haven't seen it.

What I found interesting was the strong expectation of electric vehicles becoming a factor.

The End of the Oil Age - 2011 and Beyond: A Reality Check
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  #29  
Old 02-25-2011, 10:18 PM
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Originally Posted by motordavid View Post
$4-5 buck gas is only going to pinch many in the short-medium term and, other than its speculative and irrational 'support base', it will do little to spur real adjustment in our energy practices and usage.
GL, mD
And thats my point. Sure i'm not as intelligent as the rest of you folks. I just look at the facts from my limited perspective and IMO the issues in the middle east and strife around the rest of the world will only stifle the economy going forward.

Not being shorted but as I see it, paying more money for gas will cause Joe consumers purchasing power to decrease measurably. I watching the local prices go up at almost the same speed as my gas gauge is going down.

In the meantime the price of commodities are on the rise and companies are raising prices for the goods they sell and giving you less for what they charge. If this keeps up; nobody is going to have much money to buy the basics let alone electric cars.
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  #30  
Old 02-25-2011, 11:48 PM
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I understand the difficulties in raising taxes on fuel, and if it ended up in a general government revenue fund it would only potentially impact demand, while not doing anything to accelerate the development of alternatives.

But it doesn't have to be a net tax increase, if government can cut other programs to fund investment in new technologies.

Three years ago our provincial government implemented a carbon tax. It was revenue neutral, in that average consumers and earners came out identically, and there were additional tax benefits worked in to it to help very low income families. For those that doubted government, there was legislation that required the government to show how all the tax collected was returned to taxpayers in other ways, each year. There were also inevitably some winners and losers. If you had very inefficient home heating, and consumed more gas than the average household, you lost (until you invested in more insulation or a better furnace, if that was possible). If you had the ability to change your behaviour, or were low consumers of fossil fuels, you could win. We won, as we chose to move closer to work, downsize our rather empty large house, buy more fuel efficient cars, and so on. We wanted to do some of those things anyway, it wasn't all because of the tax, but we came out ahead personally. Across the larger population though, whether directly or indirectly, what the new tax did was to start (slowly) to shift the tax burden so that it was more directly linked to excessive consumption of fossil fuels, whether for transportation, heating, or industry. It was intended to change behaviours. I found it interesting how much support the tax received from the general population. I think it is one example of how government can, as X5rolls put it, provide a framework to support the desired end result, in this case for both consumers and industry.

I agree that electric vehicles will not have an immediate benefit in locations where power is primarily produced by coal or natural gas (we have a lot of hydro power here). I think that anticipating a potential shift to electric vehicles means that attention should be paid to cleaning up power stations, and not just tailpipes.
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