Update - the bulbs arrived today and I did the swap, confirming it was just two burned out bulbs.
I replaced all 5. The bulb changeout is trivial. Just a pair of Torx T-9 screws to free the cluster, then the bulbs can be directly removed and replaced from the back side of the cluster. No need to crack it open or anything.
Here's the ebay item I bought:
BWM Instrument Cluster Panel Dash Light Bulb 12V 1 5W OSRAM Sylvania Set of 6 | eBay
$7 for 6 bulbs including shipping. Brand is Osram-Sylvania, apparently OE. They looked exactly the same as the originals.