RE: X5 Unrelated, but Good Information in Times of Need - Page 20

crystalworks · #**191** 04-15-2020, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

There are a couple of countries that have relaxed some of the restrictions and have seen cases start to rise again. WHO has a list of six requirements that must be in place to open any portion of a country. We have not achieved one of them anywhere. Trump is going to push and intimidate the experts to open as much of the country as he can. If the cases start to increase it will be the fault of the experts, World Heath Org., Governors or Mayors. We are fortunate that state officials are in charge of when anything opens as they were the closings.

I agree with you on the states rights and governors/mayors being in charge as being a good thing. The idea in some countries (Sweden comes to mind) is to keep deaths as low as possible by quarantining the vulnerable while still keeping the economy going and perhaps building some herd immunity. People are going to die, right now the US is forecasting roughly the same number of deaths from the Wuhan Virus as the yearly flu ~65,000. We don't shut down the country, or even bat an eye, over the seasonal flu.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

I wouldn't trust the WHO any further than I could throw them. They are in bed with China and inept (I seem to recall them recommending we not wear masks originally). And unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on which way your political dong dangles, Trump is going to be our next POTUS. I have zero belief the Bernie supporters will actually vote for Biden. I was going to vote for ANYONE the Democrats ran... except Biden. Have a feeling I am not a lone in that sentiment. He can barely string sentences together at times. I feel for him, he should be with family enjoying the rest of his life. Not a puppet for the DNC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clavurion

Most likely 95% or more of the population will get this infection before vaccination or herd immunity... We can't shut down the world forever.

Agree on all points you made but shortened the quote.

For some reason a portion of the population thinks any talk of getting people back to work is choosing money over lives. That's not seeing the forest from the trees. It's like saying, "people are dying because they are able to drive cars... So we should ban driving until we can make a car that you can not die in." People die every day and it certainly isn't something trivial, but we can not protect 100% of people, 100% of the time.

I like your ink OB. I don't know if it will come to identifying immune people in order to get them back to work. But I wouldn't want to be the officer who tries to tell you not to work.

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EODguy · #**192** 04-16-2020, 12:36 AM

OB love the ink here's my old team ink...

Anything for a friend.

Everything to an enemy.

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Happy · #**193** 04-16-2020, 01:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EODguy

Everything to an enemy.

My enemy is my footstool!

EODguy · #**194** 04-16-2020, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy

My enemy is my footstool!

It was also the enemy on the Dick van Dyke show

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bcredliner · #**195** 04-16-2020, 03:09 PM

Currently the only measurement of infected individuals are those that are hospitalized. We are just starting to estimate the overall infection rate. The more testing the more accurate the measurement. As long as the overall infection rate is greater than one infected individual infecting only one other the virus is not under control.

Individuals that choose to resist or ignore the guidelines intended to reduce the number infected by another to less than one person are part of extending the length of time the guidelines will be needed, contributing to extending the time they will not be working and the negative impact on the economy. As long as citizens resist what is necessary to stop the spread of the virus the longer the associated difficulties in our personal lives will continue.

The health care system becomes a problem when there are no guidelines. But, the most important reason to continue guidelines is that people are dying. If one was told they will get the virus in no uncertain terms, and they will infect their loved ones, perhaps they would think differently about rather to err on the side of caution or not.

The is no likely percent of how many will be infected. But, it is certain that the more people that do not do their part the higher that percent will be. Nor is there a likely percent of immunity that experts can predict will be enough. Eighty percent of 380 million means the 76 million will still be infected and the corresponding death rate in just the US.

crystalworks · #**196** 04-16-2020, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

Currently the only measurement of infected individuals are those that are hospitalized. We are just starting to estimate the overall infection rate. The more testing the more accurate the measurement. As long as the overall infection rate is greater than one infected individual infecting only one other the virus is not under control.

I agree testing is paramount. But hospitalizations alone are certainly not the only measured infected individuals. Many, including asymptomatic people, have been tested and are recovering at home. They are also counted in the total infected cases.

I agree with the assumption that an R0 of > 1 means the virus is not under control. I'm not sure I agree with an assumption that we can get the R0 under 1 until we have a vaccine (or build up a herd immunity). If that's the case, we can not keep people in their homes. They HAVE to work. The government is not going to pay everyone's bills. As long as we can keep the health care system from being overloaded, we may have to just be okay accepting whatever amount of people getting infected and possibly dying those numbers are. Just like we do the seasonal flu. It sucks, but I don't see an alternative.

bcredliner · #**197** 04-16-2020, 08:37 PM

Are you certain those testing positive are in the count? It is my understanding there is yet to be a process to get those numbers from testing facilities.

crystalworks · #**198** 04-16-2020, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

Are you certain those testing positive are in the count? It is my understanding there is yet to be a process to get those numbers from testing facilities.

I don't know about everywhere, but here in San Antonio there definitely is. Metro Health is collecting data from Texas Med Clinics (private urgent care clinics that charge for tests) and Quest (the major national labs) to get numbers. I'm sure Metro Health communicates that data on to other national sources. We get numbers from all the surrounding counties as well so there has to be some sort of coordinated effort outside of hospitalizations.

Happy · #**199** 04-16-2020, 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crystalworks

But here in San Antonio.

I thought you were in Austin, Crystal?

crystalworks · #**200** 04-17-2020, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy

I thought you were in Austin, Crystal?

Nope. I like Austin but couldn't live there. Too "weird" for me in large doses. Enjoy visiting though.

And I must say our mayor and county officials have been doing a great job with information and coordination through this strange time. How have your officials been doing in Houston happy?

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