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  #11  
Old 10-11-2006, 08:30 PM
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I'm in real estate development in Las Vegas, and this is historically one of the worst times you can possibly buy here. We're experiencing a softening/correction of pricing and the number of homes on MLS is higher than ever in history for LV. Perhaps a better time to purchase would be in 6 months to a year when thousands of people default on their risky loans and prices come down. Let me know if you have any specific questions.
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  #12  
Old 10-11-2006, 09:25 PM
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Price it right

Given the soft market it is important to price the property right, I would say just under recent comparable sales.

Not sure how strong your market and what the correct price is.

You can go on line and get a free avm valuation assuming your house is similar to other homes in the area, using zillow. If the home is not similar I would suggest getting a appraisal done by a appraiser with MAI designation. http://www.appraisalinstitute.org/

I would not trust the broker for pricing they generally think if they give you a high price they will get the listing.

The fact of the matter is that we have seen a high rate of appreciation and if you sell your home for somewhat less than last years levels you are still making a large profit.
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  #13  
Old 10-11-2006, 09:49 PM
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As a commercial real estate broker in Bend, OR, I can say that the commercial market is still strong as ever here. We're seeing cap rates hovering around 6-6.25% and anything that's a quality investment is gone within a few days.

The residential market has taken a bit of a softening but not as bad as the rest of the Country. Median home prices in Q2 were up 7% and Q3 is up another 3%(+/-). However, listings went up over 300% in the past four months and sales are at 25% of what they were this time last year (you do the math, there's a LOT of houses sitting around but the prices are staying strong). I am assuming we're going to see a correction like everywhere else, but I don't expect much of a price drop.

As an investment, I'd stay away from buying a home for the next 5-6 months. Let everything settle down and see where it goes and start writing offers in Jan/Feb '07. Now if you're looking for commercial property, send me a PM if you have any questions!
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  #14  
Old 10-11-2006, 09:49 PM
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Agree with Blue. Price right and things still move...at least in my area.

How many properties are on the market so long because the seller is just being too aggressive for current conditions? There's making money and there's raping & pillaging.

Two years ago you could get away with it, now...back to Earth. Good Realtors who have seen the cycles know how to talk sellers and will walk away rather than have it sit at too high a price.
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  #15  
Old 10-11-2006, 10:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoop
As a commercial real estate broker in Bend, OR, I can say that the commercial market is still strong as ever here. We're seeing cap rates hovering around 6-6.25% and anything that's a quality investment is gone within a few days.
Hey Hoop.. Sorry to go off topic here but was wondering, are you going to attend the BendFilm Festival this weekend?
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  #16  
Old 10-11-2006, 10:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by x54.4blue
You can go on line and get a free avm valuation assuming your house is similar to other homes in the area, using zillow. If the home is not similar I would suggest getting a appraisal done by a appraiser with MAI designation. http://www.appraisalinstitute.org/

I would not trust the broker for pricing they generally think if they give you a high price they will get the listing.
When a Realtor recommends a price for your property, he/she backs it up with a Market Analysis (taken from the local Real Estate Multiple Listings database or MLS for short) which shows comparable homes that sold recently, homes that are currently in the market, in your neighborhood, and/or a comparable neighborhood. They will do this for you at no charge if you invite two or three of them for a listing presentation. The reality is, it's the homeowner/seller that usually overprices the property, instead of the Realtor. Pricing it higher than the market would be a waste of time and money for the Realtor.

The Zillow.com site should not be used to make pricing decisions specially now as the market just did a downward shift. Their database are quite outdated. Also Appraisers are not a good source for pricing either. They are always lower than the real market and do their appraising for financial institutions.

If you have a Legal Problem, you go to an Attorney, not a Bank Manager (you do that after )

If you want to sell your Home, you go to a Realtor, not Google.com (they will not pay you $1.65Billion for it)

Last edited by Ed Garces; 10-11-2006 at 10:26 PM.
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  #17  
Old 10-11-2006, 11:12 PM
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This is a correct analysis. One thing for sure at least in California. If You sell your property an move away theres a good chance you won't be able to move back and buy a house. Some have done that and tried to return in 2 years but ended up renting.


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Originally Posted by AutoXer
We still have a decent market for single family homes in SF. Condos are slowing down. The surrounding areas are pretty slow. Prices have dropped around 5-7% this year, not too bad considering how much prices have gone up in the last few years. The market seem to have picked up the past month though because interest rates have gone down a little.
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  #18  
Old 10-11-2006, 11:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed Garces
When a Realtor recommends a price for your property, he/she backs it up with a Market Analysis (taken from the local Real Estate Multiple Listings database or MLS for short) which shows comparable homes that sold recently, homes that are currently in the market, in your neighborhood, and/or a comparable neighborhood. They will do this for you at no charge if you invite two or three of them for a listing presentation. The reality is, it's the homeowner/seller that usually overprices the property, instead of the Realtor. Pricing it higher than the market would be a waste of time and money for the Realtor.

The Zillow.com site should not be used to make pricing decisions specially now as the market just did a downward shift. Their database are quite outdated. Also Appraisers are not a good source for pricing either. They are always lower than the real market and do their appraising for financial institutions.

If you have a Legal Problem, you go to an Attorney, not a Bank Manager (you do that after )

If you want to sell your Home, you go to a Realtor, not Google.com (they will not pay you $1.65Billion for it)
If you want to know the market value of a property you go to an independent real estate appraiser who is trained to value property NOT SELL IT. Appraiser value property for many different reasons and have no reason to come in high or low. If the house is just like every other one a AVM valuation will get close. Once again if the house is not the same as the others in the neighborhood you should get and independent valuation. In general don't trust a broker they want to get your listing. That not to say some brokers are not fair and honest but your home is probably your single largest investment and a home appraisal should cost about $300 to $500 dollars. A MAI is an appraiser with over five years of training/classwork and experience.

My point is that the seller needs to price it right and in this market its key.

That's not to say that a realtor won't do a good job selling the house just don't rely on the broker for pricing. With a indepent valuation in hand you have a lot more information and can discuss what the asking price should be with your broker.

I would also say that given the market conditions you are probably better off with a broker selling your house; its what they do for a living. They know how to sell just like any good salesman and they how to advertise and present your home.

PS I understand that some used car salesman are very honest too.

Last edited by E61Silver; 10-11-2006 at 11:40 PM.
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  #19  
Old 10-12-2006, 01:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by x54.4blue
If you want to know the market value of a property you go to an independent real estate appraiser who is trained to value property NOT SELL IT.
I am going to have to strongly disagree with this statement. Real estate appraiser is there to justify value and they look backward towards sales comparables to do it. In a downward trending market, they are going to be high in their value and in a rising market, they are going to be low. Their data can be off by as much as 90 days by standard appraisal practices.

Good realtors stay on top of the market by tracking current sales which are going into escrow and should have the most current data.

And of course, you will run into lots of bad realtors and also bad appraisers because it's too easy to get into both professions without much training. But I would not necessary go to an appraiser to get a true value because that's not the nature of their business.

Also when valuating real estate, I think if they come within 5%, they are within the margin of error and most people just do not understand that concept.
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  #20  
Old 10-12-2006, 04:48 PM
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Thanks for all the info guys, every response is a great read and some great links too.
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