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  #161  
Old 04-06-2020, 02:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StephenVA View Post
Don't panic, Your local situation may vary anywhere from overstuffed populations to "what the hell are neighbors?"

Packed population center leadership (Mayors, City Council, and the State Governors should be the ones who make local decisions on a case by case (town/City/County) situation. The Federal Gov is not responsible in telling your local town to shut down unless there is a NATIONAL crisis. Their job is to coordinate efforts, provide guidance, define best practices as information becomes clear, not hold your hand. See States Rights in the Constitution for a basic Civics lesson on responsibilities of failing local leadership seeking political cover. (See Michigan for lead in the drinking water for another example of failed local leadership)

The current hot pockets in the USA all showed poor local leadership to get in front of the situation, to control who comes in to your area, etc (Think open border crowd) as they were busy arguing politics against the current Administration to gain political advantages for the up coming election cycle. See NY Mayor calling for everyone to go to Chinatown and eat at the Restaurants to show your not a racist.

The loose screw New Orleans Mayor who was every so excited for the Mardi Gras tourist volumes, now blames Trump for her actions ("He needed to tell me to cancel it!"

New Orleans has its own unique issues and these under lining health issues:
"New Orleans residents suffer from obesity, diabetes and hypertension at rates higher than the national average, conditions that doctors and public health officials say can make patients more vulnerable to COVID-19, the highly contagious respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus."

Some 97% of those killed by COVID-19 in Louisiana had a preexisting condition, according to the state health department. Diabetes was seen in 40% of the deaths, obesity in 25%, chronic kidney disease in 23% and cardiac problems in 21%."

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released for the first time this week a report showing that 78% of COVID-19 patients in ICUs in the United States had an underlying health condition, including diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease.

Hold your local leaders to task for their inability to lead. Scapegoating is a national pastime for every big city politician.

Advice: Ignore those who go on TV waving their arms to say "save us". Your in charge. What is YOUR plan? Tell them do what the business leader in Johnstown, PA did when they were flooded. He went and shipped in by train in 24 hrs food, manpower help, and medical supplies out of his own pocket as he only had tell/ask himself what to do. That is the hallmark of action leadership. See a problem, devise a solution (doesn't have to be the BEST) and act aggressively on it. Tweak your solution as warranted by conditions (demand/supply/manpower) All you can do is all you can do. You can't do more.

Now you are in charge of yourself, your family, and your home. What's YOUR plan? Waiting on the Gov to tell you? If so you are going to be gone in the first wave...

Stay safe, stay healthy, be smart and be prepared for the next wave or event.
I agree. At the end of the day we are responsible for our own well being. With so much information available out there, good or bad, true or false, our job is to be diligent in siphoning the right information and then use it to make the right decisions.
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  #162  
Old 04-06-2020, 02:19 PM
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It is now up to the individual to do their own information gathering Sad but true. Certainly time consuming. The nightly news should be a no commercial 30 minute (maybe 60 but ppl's attn spans might not be up to the task) matter of fact information delivery apparatus. It used to be a loss leader. The network's payback to society if you will.

How do you fix this problem? As long as most of the country is willing to digest their news from one chosen source (we are creatures of habit) nothing is going to change.

Personally I troll the forums, certain YouTube channels (currently watching a photography channel of all things for lots of good info), and the stock market reporting for most info. Stock market has been decent I guess because it's less political and more financially motivated. I do watch local Fox and ABC news channels as well. Avoid GMA like the plague.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maruzo View Post
I use Google Chrome and went to Washington Post website. I just clicked where it says to browse without subscribing.

It's a free read without having to provide any personal information.
I'll give it a go next time I'm in front of a computer.

Quote:
An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee
That's an example of why the death rate numbers or reported infection members are not accurate. No way of knowing how far off they are by percentage but after this is all over there will be "best guess" estimates to account for stuff like the above I suppose.

I'm less concerned with the mortality rate itself than I am of the "r naught" value of the virus which is an indicator of how easily it spreads from person to person. From my understanding it's much higher than the seasonal flu.
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Last edited by crystalworks; 04-06-2020 at 02:31 PM.
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  #163  
Old 04-06-2020, 02:36 PM
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Originally Posted by crystalworks View Post

I'm less concerned with the mortality rate itself than I am of the "r naught" value of the virus which is an indicator of how easily it spreads from person to person. From my understanding it's much higher than the seasonal flu.
There are a few sources on infection rate/transmission spread but a lot is just hype from the doom merchants trying to keep their audience engaged and ad rates going.

Wash Post is behind a fire wall, you can click through on X number of articles per month then you have to buy a view package.
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  #164  
Old 04-06-2020, 02:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crystalworks View Post
It is now up to the individual to do their own information gathering Sad but true. Certainly time consuming. The nightly news should be a no commercial 30 minute (maybe 60 but ppl's attn spans might not be up to the task) matter of fact information delivery apparatus. It used to be a loss leader. The network's payback to society if you will.

How do you fix this problem? As long as most of the country is willing to digest their news from one chosen source (we are creatures of habit) nothing is going to change.

Personally I troll the forums, certain YouTube channels (currently watching a photography channel of all things for lots of good info), and the stock market reporting for most info. Stock market has been decent I guess because it's less political and more financially motivated. I do watch local Fox and ABC news channels as well. Avoid GMA like the plague.



I'll give it a go next time I'm in front of a computer.



That's an example of why the death rate numbers or reported infection members are not accurate. No way of knowing how far off they are by percentage but after this is all over there will be "best guess" estimates to account for stuff like the above I suppose.

I'm less concerned with the mortality rate itself than I am of the "r naught" value of the virus which is an indicator of how easily it spreads from person to person. From my understanding it's much higher than the seasonal flu.
That's my feeling as well. I agree with Redliner. The actual mortality rate will be available when all this has past and we have all postmortem numbers.

The important take is we need to treat this new virus much more seriously because it is far more damaging to our body and spreads much easier than the common flu.

Even if you survive it, I can't even begin to image having only 50% ~75% of your lungs functional for the rest of your life.
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  #165  
Old 04-06-2020, 02:55 PM
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Originally Posted by StephenVA View Post
There are a few sources on infection rate/transmission spread but a lot is just hype from the doom merchants trying to keep their audience engaged and ad rates going.
Have a link to something? Everything shows it more infectious to varying degrees. This source seems pretty earnest. They indicate an R0 of 2.2 which is almost double that of the flu.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html
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  #166  
Old 04-06-2020, 03:19 PM
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Let me reach out to my medical sources as I spend my life in the research and advice world on IT related issues.

Updates coming in.....
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  #167  
Old 04-06-2020, 03:23 PM
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I have a researcher who does provider side analysis

She says go here for the most accurate and reliable info that is currently feeding multiple Gov sites

John Hopkins, Baltimore https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/
Mortality Rates world wide: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Drill down map: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html Nothing deeper than county/City levels
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1970 Dodge Challenger T/A 4 sp GoManGo Green
1971 Dart Sport, “Dart Light” package
1969 Road Runner 383
1968 Ply Barracuda 340S FB Sea-foam Green

Last edited by StephenVA; 04-06-2020 at 03:39 PM.
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  #168  
Old 04-06-2020, 03:47 PM
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Thank you. The more info the better. Johns Hopkins corroborates that figure I posted with a range of 2.0 - 2.5 R0.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...ial-distancing
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  #169  
Old 04-07-2020, 12:01 AM
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I would like to caution people about using worldmeters as the numbers there have always been listed as higher and since they are an aggregation site they have a very high risk of getting duplicates inadvertently.

I don't want to say that the CDC has all the correct numbers either but I chalk that up to possible information lag.

As for flu deaths from the numbers I can find there appears to have been 26,000+ deaths confirmed in the 2018-2019 season (4 months) but may have much higher because if someone died in that timeframe of pneumonia caused by the flu it's called dying of pneumonia and not the flu or even pneumonia caused by the flu.

Stay well everyone.

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  #170  
Old 04-07-2020, 01:06 AM
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Stay well everyone.
You too EOD, as well as the rest of y’all here. I hope everyone has a Blessed week.
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