RE: X5 Unrelated, but Good Information in Times of Need - Page 21

crystalworks · #1 04-16-2020, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

Currently the only measurement of infected individuals are those that are hospitalized. We are just starting to estimate the overall infection rate. The more testing the more accurate the measurement. As long as the overall infection rate is greater than one infected individual infecting only one other the virus is not under control.

I agree testing is paramount. But hospitalizations alone are certainly not the only measured infected individuals. Many, including asymptomatic people, have been tested and are recovering at home. They are also counted in the total infected cases.

I agree with the assumption that an R0 of > 1 means the virus is not under control. I'm not sure I agree with an assumption that we can get the R0 under 1 until we have a vaccine (or build up a herd immunity). If that's the case, we can not keep people in their homes. They HAVE to work. The government is not going to pay everyone's bills. As long as we can keep the health care system from being overloaded, we may have to just be okay accepting whatever amount of people getting infected and possibly dying those numbers are. Just like we do the seasonal flu. It sucks, but I don't see an alternative.

Maruzo · #2 04-20-2020, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

Currently the only measurement of infected individuals are those that are hospitalized. We are just starting to estimate the overall infection rate. The more testing the more accurate the measurement. As long as the overall infection rate is greater than one infected individual infecting only one other the virus is not under control.

Individuals that choose to resist or ignore the guidelines intended to reduce the number infected by another to less than one person are part of extending the length of time the guidelines will be needed, contributing to extending the time they will not be working and the negative impact on the economy. As long as citizens resist what is necessary to stop the spread of the virus the longer the associated difficulties in our personal lives will continue.

The health care system becomes a problem when there are no guidelines. But, the most important reason to continue guidelines is that people are dying. If one was told they will get the virus in no uncertain terms, and they will infect their loved ones, perhaps they would think differently about rather to err on the side of caution or not.

The is no likely percent of how many will be infected. But, it is certain that the more people that do not do their part the higher that percent will be. Nor is there a likely percent of immunity that experts can predict will be enough. Eighty percent of 380 million means the 76 million will still be infected and the corresponding death rate in just the US.

"Hammer and dance" is the most probable and workable method to restarting the economy. Hammer being the stay at home mandate and dance being the limited release of the work force back into their perspective professional fields. For instance reducing the amount of people per carriage riding the subway.

Enforcing the social distance rules. Reducing the capacity for each and every venue, public gatherings. Letting the athletes play in the fields with limited number of camera crew, but no spectators, etc.

Sending everyone back to work all at once either in May or June and hoping that everything will work out is simply a fantasy at this moment.

In fact, such action will most likely create the following scenario:

For 2~3 weeks everything is seemingly great and humming along. Then the new infection number starts piling up and hospital emergency capacity gets overrun quickly.

More social panic ensues.

This is not fear mongering, this is prediction by experts and people who studies pandemics for a living.

"Tiptoeing back to normal" is our best bet at having an economy while keeping most people from getting infected.

You can read up about the interview by The Daily's Michael Barbaro for today's segment.

Clavurion · #3 04-20-2020, 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maruzo

"Hammer and dance" is the most probable and workable method to restarting the economy. Hammer being the stay at home mandate and dance being the limited release of the work force back into their perspective professional fields. For instance reducing the amount of people per carriage riding the subway.

Enforcing the social distance rules. Reducing the capacity for each and every venue, public gatherings. Letting the athletes play in the fields with limited number of camera crew, but no spectators, etc.

Sending everyone back to work all at once either in May or June and hoping that everything will work out is simply a fantasy at this moment.

In fact, such action will most likely create the following scenario:

For 2~3 weeks everything is seemingly great and humming along. Then the new infection number starts piling up and hospital emergency capacity gets overrun quickly.

More social panic ensues.

This is not fear mongering, this is prediction by experts and people who studies pandemics for a living.

"Tiptoeing back to normal" is our best bet at having an economy while keeping most people from getting infected.

You can read up about the interview by The Daily's Michael Barbaro for today's segment.

The release of restrictions has to happen in partial steps because we'll see the the outcome after a few weeks the earliest. And everyone has to prepare for new restrictions if infections start rise up again too fast. As it seems children are likely to be the least affected and least contagious (due to immune response) so schools and day care centers could be be the first ones on the release.

bcredliner · #4 04-16-2020, 08:37 PM

Are you certain those testing positive are in the count? It is my understanding there is yet to be a process to get those numbers from testing facilities.

crystalworks · #5 04-16-2020, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

Are you certain those testing positive are in the count? It is my understanding there is yet to be a process to get those numbers from testing facilities.

I don't know about everywhere, but here in San Antonio there definitely is. Metro Health is collecting data from Texas Med Clinics (private urgent care clinics that charge for tests) and Quest (the major national labs) to get numbers. I'm sure Metro Health communicates that data on to other national sources. We get numbers from all the surrounding counties as well so there has to be some sort of coordinated effort outside of hospitalizations.

Happy · #6 04-16-2020, 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crystalworks

But here in San Antonio.

I thought you were in Austin, Crystal?

crystalworks · #7 04-17-2020, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy

I thought you were in Austin, Crystal?

Nope. I like Austin but couldn't live there. Too "weird" for me in large doses. Enjoy visiting though.

And I must say our mayor and county officials have been doing a great job with information and coordination through this strange time. How have your officials been doing in Houston happy?

Happy · #8 04-17-2020, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crystalworks

Nope. I like Austin but couldn't live there. Too "weird" for me in large doses. Enjoy visiting though.

And I must say our mayor and county officials have been doing a great job with information and coordination through this strange time. How have your officials been doing in Houston happy?

For being the 4th largest U.S. city, it seems they are doing ok. Cases are low compared to the other densely populated cities. But, only at the end of this will we truly know how the officials, and residents handled the crisis.

We had some crime break out this week though. So I’m assuming that some of the residents are going back to their old ways.

crystalworks · #9 04-21-2020, 12:29 PM

The statistics/demographics back that up Clavurion, schools would have likely been the first to open, but I think most are going to close for the year with more well off districts doing virtual learning and less well off districts doing possibly mail-in work (my sister-in-law is a primary school teacher doing mail packets in her district in FL).

Here in San Antonio I think all public schools have already done so. Private schools are own discretion but most follow certain districts. I've been my daughter's defacto teacher daily so I'm glad the year is almost over. Not that I am a bad teacher or don't have the patience for it... but we are paying for schooling, so I'd like to get that value out of the investment. If this continues the wife and I are debating home schooling next year. Even with the cost of the curriculum we'd come out multiple thousands ahead.

^ But that's just one additional worry to the many that this whole situation has us racking our brains over.

Attached are New York's mortality demographics as of the 4/16.

Maruzo · #10 04-21-2020, 02:28 PM

Attitude is everything...

* Half of us are going to come out of this quarantine as amazing cooks. The other half will come out with a drinking problem.

* I used to spin the toilet paper like I was on Wheel of Fortune. Now I turn it like I’m cracking a safe.

* I need to practice social distancing from . . . the refrigerator.

* Still haven’t decided where to go for Easter . . . The Living Room or The Bedroom.

* PSA: every few days, try your jeans on just to make sure they fit. Pajamas will have you believe all is well in the kingdom.

* Homeschooling is going well. 2 students suspended for fighting and 1 teacher fired for drinking on the job!

* I don’t think anyone expected that when we changed the clocks we’d go from Standard Time to Twilight Zone.

* This morning I saw a neighbor talking to her cat. It was obvious she thought her cat understood her. I came into the house, told my dog . . . we laughed a lot.

* So, after this quarantine, will the producers of My 600 Pound life just find me or do I find them?

* Quarantine Day 5: Went to this restaurant called THE KITCHEN. You have to gather all the ingredients and make your own meal. I have no clue how this place is still in business!

* My body has absorbed so much soap and disinfectant lately that when I pee it cleans the toilet.

* Day 5 of Homeschooling: One of these little monsters called in a bomb threat.

* I’m so excited . . . it’s time to take out the garbage. What to wear, what to wear?

* I hope the weather is good tomorrow for my trip to Puerto Backyardia. I’m getting tired of Los Livingroomia.

* Classified Ad: Single man with toilet paper seeks women with hand sanitizer for good clean fun.

* Day 6 of Homeschooling: My child just said “I hope I don’t have the same teacher next year.” I’m offended.

* Better 6 feet apart than 6 feet under!