RE: X5 Unrelated, but Good Information in Times of Need

crystalworks · #11 04-23-2020, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

While it makes sense that the more unemployed for some period of time will result in more potential deaths. There is no study that can be used universally. That is due to the huge number of variables between instances. Wasn't kidding, the 40,000 number originated in the movie 'The Big Short'. There was no study behind it. It was just part of the script.

They did use it in the movie. But Dr. Harvey Brenner was doing work/studies in the 70's on the subject. That's where they got it from. After doing some more research, it seems 1500 deaths per 1% increase of unemployment is more accurate. So, we're projecting up to 25% (ish), so that's ~30,000 deaths.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

If unemployment and the stimulus payments are not enough to get by then one should look for work in an essential category. There are jobs available at many places such as Amazon that are swamped with orders, business that have benefitted from the pandemic. Or smaller businesses that are deemed essential that need staff as some workers have chosen not to take the risk.

^Wow. You live in a bubble.

Edit: Seems there are different figures ranging from 1500 - 37000. The movie rounded up from 37000, for dramatic effect I assume.

Quote:

The actual figure in academic research is a 37,000 increase for each percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate. It comes from a book called “Corporate Flight: The Causes and Consequences of Economic Dislocation” by Barry Bluestone, Bennett Harrison and Lawrence Baker.

“Corporate Flight” was published in 1982 and mainly had to do with companies moving operations overseas. I couldn’t reach Bluestone, Harrison or Baker, but last week I was able to contact Wade Thomas, who teaches economics and business at SUNY Oneonta and who quoted those figures in his own co-written 2005 book called “Economic Issues Today: Alternative Approaches.”

Here’s the paragraph from Thomas’ book that applies: “According to one study [the one by Bluestone et al.] a 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate will be associated with 37,000 deaths [including 20,000 heart attacks], 920 suicides, 650 homicides, 4,000 state mental hospital admissions and 3,300 state prison admissions.”