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  #31  
Old 03-22-2020, 06:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EODguy View Post
As far as numbers go, epidemiologists say that the number of infected people are probably as much as 5x or 7x the number of confirmed cases. So if the number of infected is much higher then known cases means that the mortality rate is far, far below what is known. I say this with 100% confidence because many people may have the virus and have few if any symptoms, but nobody is dead without people noticing especially in the "percentages" we are told to expect.... Therefore with a mortality rate already below that of the average flu, people should relax a ton more.

As for the whole thing with China... The Chinese government has been pushing the blame for the virus on America through wiebo/propaganda as noted by many intelligence sources so you can bet you will see many forms of pushback, such as reiterating exactly where the virus started.

Now the part about "Chinese" folks getting beaten and other things etc...

1. These have all been the actions of individual racist dicks and not as was said (stirring up racism against) because that takes a group or a group's leadership i.e. kkk, cair, Trump, Pelosi, Schumer or so on saying find, assault, alienate or whatever to any "Chinese" looking folks and I have not seen or heard of any of that happening.

2. Chinese is NOT a race and with the exception of people like my wife, who is a Naturalized Citizen. People have no claim of hyphenated status unless anyone believes in making a statement based upon skin color? My wife doesn't even use the hyphenated descriptor because... "So people think I'm not truly part of them or that I'm only half the worth of others?"

----------------------------------------------------------------------
About Trump (my opinion only) the economy, jobs, etc are the best they have been in many many years so I'm happy. His tweets are annoying but in some of the cases necessary due to the political machinations of competing parties that with the evidence out there have made their supposition as stated fact only to have it proven false later and never retracted, which makes Trump's comments necessary but mostly ill worded.

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So many glaring errors. But let's focus on the mortality rate. Average for regular flu death is 0.1%

Avg for Covid 19 has been shifting up. From 2.0% to 3.4% to as high as 7 percentage points.

So no, it's not just like a regular flu. It is much, much worse.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
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  #32  
Old 03-22-2020, 07:25 AM
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1st...
CDC numbers for USA as of Friday (updated weekdays only)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

201 deaths
15,219 confirmed cases

201 15,219 = 1.32% (math)

As for Italy you will find that in addition to having a much older population than the USA they report ANY death at a hospital with coronavirus as a coronavirus death as stated here by an Italian official:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/

You will find that (deaths by confirmed cases 100) will give you the percentage of mortality. I am one of those people who must use a calculator and that the numbers I posted are correct.

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  #33  
Old 03-22-2020, 07:38 AM
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As for the flu in 2019 (USA only)

There were 23,000 deaths in the USA and 390,000 confirmed hospitalizations for the flu in the USA making the mortality rate for Influenza A (H1N1) a staggering 5.89%



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  #34  
Old 03-22-2020, 07:42 AM
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Also please point out any errors glaring or otherwise so that I may fix them or provide data to explain if needed.
Thanks

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  #35  
Old 03-22-2020, 11:31 AM
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You are wrong to say this virus is less lethal than "regular flu". It is killing at a rate 20 to 30 times more rapidly than all the other flu types combined.

Please do not spread misinformation around.

This virus has killed younger people, healthy people in the 30s and their 40s as well. Youth is not guarantee of a free pass if you contract it.

In Italy, as of this week, of the people infected and has had a resulting end to their illness, over 40% are dead because of it.

How are you gonna protect the older generation of this country with your attitude? Just remember, we also have a very large and aging population.

You might think this is no small matter, but the fact is this virus kills indiscriminately. It transmits easily. There are no known cure as of today.

So yeah, keep downplaying the severity of the situation, keep playing with your numbers.

I'm not gonna bother to spend the rest of my Sunday arguing if you've already made up your mind not to care.
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  #36  
Old 03-22-2020, 11:40 AM
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Current worldwide is 4.29% mortality rate. That's total deaths by total cases x 100. Many argue numbers should be calculated by dividing deaths by total resolved cases (recoveries + deaths) which would put the figure around 12% currently. US is currently at 1.29% using total cases but it's too early to tell as numbers are going to start their way up the curve. Can't use total resolved cases yet for US as there is not enough data. Using current figures would put mortality rate at 66% which is obviously incorrect.

This does appear to have a higher mortality rate than the annual flu if the numbers continue to trend.
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Old 03-22-2020, 11:54 AM
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Ok, I have tried to be civil and will do so to a point.
But.....

I AM NOT PLAYING WITH THE NUMBERS!!

I posted links directly to the CDC and did the math even showing the "work" these two actions are proof that I am dealing in facts and so far you have said that I was... a) wrong, b) lying.

I asked you to point out where I was mistaken so that I could correct it or provide facts to futher prove what I said, you have done neither. I have never said it's not bad only that by empirical evidence shows people need to relax especially with a mortality rate lower than the annual flu season (that's not over yet) in the USA and even gave a link to why Italy has such high numbers and if you would have checked you would have seen Italy's statement saying that so far 12% of the deaths listed as Chinese coronavirus have been found to be the actual cause of death and the other 88% were due to 1, 2, and sometimes 3 underlying health problems and maybe only peripherally related.

If I am wrong in using the CDC and basic math please list examples (quote function works wonders) and I will correct it if wrong, but if it is that you just don't agree with the facts state so, but do not insinuate that I am lying.



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  #38  
Old 03-22-2020, 12:22 PM
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Me? I was certainly not saying you are wrong or lying and hope you don't think I was. You are using the CDC's website and doing the math. It's correct. I am using (as posted much earlier in this thread) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for my numbers using the same formula you were. This site updates almost live which is why I use it. CDC seems to update every few days or so. I was simply posting the current numbers from the source I used to show that it appears the coronavirus is more lethal than the annual flu. Sorry if that was misconstrued.

Current #'s:

Worldwide - 13699 deaths / 321268 total cases x100 = 4.264% mortality rate
US - 349 deaths / 29214 total cases x100 = 1.194% mortality rate

Edit: Nevermind, after reading Maruzo's post above mine you were probably responding to him. Sorry.
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  #39  
Old 03-22-2020, 12:24 PM
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CW, I come to the same numbers as you using the worldmeters.info website yet so far it is the special circumstances in a few areas that have driven numbers that high worldwide. Italy has the worlds 2nd oldest population and Spain has 20% of the population over 65, not to mention that Spaniards actual chant against government orders until about 10 days ago was "resistire" which meant I will resist.

Many places have had unimaginable failures driving the overall % higher but I fully expect to see problems in California since their homeless population is so high and typhus was already becoming an issue, same for Houston and any other area with a large population of homeless.
Sticking with US numbers only shows that mortality is very low in the USA for Chinese coronavirus and H1N1 Influenza A strain.


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  #40  
Old 03-22-2020, 12:26 PM
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No CW. Not you, it just so happens that my reply posted after your post (2 finger typing for me)

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