RE: X5 Unrelated, but Good Information in Times of Need - Page 47

Happy · #1 05-20-2020, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StephenVA

OK you two. If you keep it up I am going to have the forum admin send you to your rooms. Let it go, girls....

Yeah! Well, I don’t take kindly to being referred to as a racist!

Do you?

Your reference to girls though is funny. I know women that will take most men’s head off on this forum in about a minute or less from my mma school.

andrewwynn · #2 05-20-2020, 05:42 PM

Look at some basic statistical realities; as of 9 may, the us hospitals are down below 20,000 beds used for covid; that is 2% of capability. CDC stopped posting updates after 9 may because the will show that the bed requirement is now 'below background noise' but people are afraid to go to the hospital to get their needed kidney or heart surgery it's not great.

With something like 50% of all covid deaths coming from old age homes, and that is maybe 1/2% of the population it makes them 200x more at risk; the high risk class needs to be protected and the rest will take care of itself the country has been ready to open before it closed. The closures were based on models that predicted 50-200x as many deaths.

The 'nearly 100k' deaths are also quite known to be padded; the CDC and Dr. Birx admitted this and advised this in plain english back in April maybe even March. Did anybody notice that flu deaths that were over 30,000 in march suddenly dropped to zero before may? Those people with flu were of course still dying they just called it a covid death.

So; yup 1000s still dying of covid, but the % of which are actually caused by a heart attack or a car accident are literally impossible to know because doctors are putting covid on the death certificate on advice of CDC (though Colorado recently took 200 off their cv death count do to 'not really covid'); the other 49 states have yet to do the same.

If you plotted the actual location of covid deaths on a map it would look like the skinny red lines on an eyeball; 99% of the area of the country is not affected. approximately 1% of the population has officially contracted covid, and 1/33 of 1% is on the official death toll (meaning closer to 1/50 of 1% of the population had a mortal combat they lost).

Had the models been more accurate back in march the world wold not have closed down and the death tolls would not be significantly different (example: sweden). Keep the high-risk people as safe as reasonably possible just like the rules for flu. take note that 92% of deaths include people with significant health risks such as high blood pressure (60%) and obesity (50%). With so many dying coming from old age homes, they may have been on their last month or 6 of life already and covid was just the last straw their weakened immune system couldn't take.

All that said, Next year if covid is still around (sars, the closest thing we have as an example just literally disappeared all on its own), it won't be the first time and we will have experience to use for guidance. The economy can rebound quite quickly because there will be a very strong push to get 'mission critical' manufacturing out of china, which will be a boon for companies to build plants and hire people in non-china locations like Indonesia but also in the USA when the labor cost isn't stupid expensive compared to the alternatives.

see this website from CDC: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

look for the weekly report of hospitalizations and take note of the quick decline over the last two or three reported weeks and the oddly missing recent weeks. As long as covid cases can be coped with at a non increasing rate there is no reason the world can't be back in operation.

StephenVA · #3 05-20-2020, 07:20 PM

Andrew as always good insight. Thanks for the link as the interactive charts help display the underlying conditions that compromises individuals whom Covid-19 just takes out with the first hit, similar the way the flu does but at higher rates I am sure. Got asthma, cardio disease, High blood pressure, or are you obese? Stay out of tight spaces and crowds....

bcredliner · #4 05-20-2020, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrewwynn

Look at some basic statistical realities; as of 9 may, the us hospitals are down below 20,000 beds used for covid; that is 2% of capability. CDC stopped posting updates after 9 may because the will show that the bed requirement is now 'below background noise' but people are afraid to go to the hospital to get their needed kidney or heart surgery it's not great.

With something like 50% of all covid deaths coming from old age homes, and that is maybe 1/2% of the population it makes them 200x more at risk; the high risk class needs to be protected and the rest will take care of itself the country has been ready to open before it closed. The closures were based on models that predicted 50-200x as many deaths.

The 'nearly 100k' deaths are also quite known to be padded; the CDC and Dr. Birx admitted this and advised this in plain english back in April maybe even March. Did anybody notice that flu deaths that were over 30,000 in march suddenly dropped to zero before may? Those people with flu were of course still dying they just called it a covid death.

So; yup 1000s still dying of covid, but the % of which are actually caused by a heart attack or a car accident are literally impossible to know because doctors are putting covid on the death certificate on advice of CDC (though Colorado recently took 200 off their cv death count do to 'not really covid'); the other 49 states have yet to do the same.

If you plotted the actual location of covid deaths on a map it would look like the skinny red lines on an eyeball; 99% of the area of the country is not affected. approximately 1% of the population has officially contracted covid, and 1/33 of 1% is on the official death toll (meaning closer to 1/50 of 1% of the population had a mortal combat they lost).

Had the models been more accurate back in march the world wold not have closed down and the death tolls would not be significantly different (example: sweden). Keep the high-risk people as safe as reasonably possible just like the rules for flu. take note that 92% of deaths include people with significant health risks such as high blood pressure (60%) and obesity (50%). With so many dying coming from old age homes, they may have been on their last month or 6 of life already and covid was just the last straw their weakened immune system couldn't take.

All that said, Next year if covid is still around (sars, the closest thing we have as an example just literally disappeared all on its own), it won't be the first time and we will have experience to use for guidance. The economy can rebound quite quickly because there will be a very strong push to get 'mission critical' manufacturing out of china, which will be a boon for companies to build plants and hire people in non-china locations like Indonesia but also in the USA when the labor cost isn't stupid expensive compared to the alternatives.

see this website from CDC: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

look for the weekly report of hospitalizations and take note of the quick decline over the last two or three reported weeks and the oddly missing recent weeks. As long as covid cases can be coped with at a non increasing rate there is no reason the world can't be back in operation.

Link would not let me get past the disclaimer. Probably a security setting on my computer.

Whether count is over or under the number of deaths the count is the only number we have to reference. How many do you think have died, how long before it reaches 100,000, and how long before the economy recovers is your guess?

Usually manufacturing follows the lowest labor rate around the world. Some manufacturing will come back but lots of focus will be on automation to minimize number of people rehired. Moving or major automating will not start until there is a good indication of long term demand. In the interim US based companies should already be implementing short term plans to hire back as few people as possible with changes that have a quick payback with little product demand. That said, we are breaking new ground so history could be worthless but I think major manufacturing will start with what has worked in the past.

I don't believe we have to accept that old people should be sacrificed for any reason. I think we are very capable of creating a plan that is best for all and the economy. Right now there is no plan at all which puts all aspects in jeopardy.

Deaths are not the only issue. Research has discovered that recovery does not mean there isn't permanent damage to all ages. We need to have universal measurements that all states implement that triggers stages of opening and drawbacks if things go the wrong direction. No plan will work unless enough of the population follows the guidelines to protect ourselves and others. I can't see how any approach is anything better than a guess with knowing so little about the virus and no applicable experience for a guide. Who knows what a good plan should be, especially when the US leadership can't even form a straight line to the john. Overall, thus far, it appears we are bent on feeding the virus.

andrewwynn · #5 05-20-2020, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Whether count is over or under the number of deaths the count is the only number we have to reference. How many do you think have died, how long before it reaches 100,000, and how long before the economy recovers is your guess?

valid point didn't mean to gloss over your question. with the semi-official count of 92k and about 1k/day we have about a week until the usa 'official' count will be 100.

looking at the current charts it appears the usa is within a month of basically looking at CV19 in the rear view mirror. I think we will see a very quick drop in official unemployment numbers but they will still be pretty bad for a year or so because of the half-baked return to business (restaurants etc only running at 50% capabilities etc) will limit how many people can go right back to work, for sure. That said i think that because of the drive that will happen and for sure federal incentives to make it happen there will be a very large push to get business of all types to relocate to US soil which will likely be a huge blessing in disguise over the cv19; it would have taken 20 years to make a 'reset' in how much the usa depends on China, and the main reason we couldn't make solid inroads to a correction is that it would 'be too big hit to our economy'.

People a lot smarter than me regarding those things are aware of a once in a century chance we have for realignment and i believe they will take advantage of it so that will make that 20 year 'possible' rest to happen in maybe 4-5 years.

So; 4-5 years I think we will not just have recovered but will be back on top of the world in a way that will have staying power; a year ago it was predicted that china will outpace the usa GDP within a few years, well i don't think that will happen in the next 15-20 with the corona reset. It will take some time to build up those new on-shore companies and put 30 million people back to work but it will happen the usa will rebound and come out on top as we always have and always will.

Quote:

Usually manufacturing follows the lowest labor rate around the world. Some manufacturing will come back but lots of focus will be on automation to minimize number of people rehired. Moving or major automating will not start until there is a good indication of long term demand. In the interim US based companies should already be implementing short term plans to hire back as few people as possible with changes that have a quick payback with little product demand. That said, we are breaking new ground so history could be worthless but I think major manufacturing will start with what has worked in the past.

Automation was already on track to kill a ton of jobs. most of the lost jobs right now are not those jobs and that's still a problem that's coming but I think that a 'usa first' thought process with government giving assists (like NY state would do for companies relocating there (no state tax for a decade kinda thing); if the feds play the cards right with tax incentives like no cap gains for bringing the trillions of off shore american company loot for coming back to the usa it costs the feds ZERO to do that; they would never bring that income back they will spend the $ off shore first.

Quote:

I don't believe we have to accept that old people should be sacrificed for any reason. I think we are very capable of creating a plan that is best for all and the economy. Right now there is no plan at all which puts all aspects in jeopardy.

I agree; i think that old people and inner city need to be where the focus is; literally, make the map i described, find out where the risk is and pool the resources where the problem is, stop with the moronic 'because i think it would be good' nonsense of the dictatorial governors.

Quote:

Deaths are not the only issue. Research has discovered that recovery does not mean there isn't permanent damage to all ages. We need to have universal measurements that all states implement that triggers stages of opening and drawbacks if things go the wrong direction. No plan will work unless enough of the population follows the guidelines to protect ourselves and others. I can't see how any approach is anything better than a guess with knowing so little about the virus and no applicable experience for a guide. Who knows what a good plan should be, especially when the US leadership can't even form a straight line to the john. Overall, thus far, it appears we are bent on feeding the virus.

One of the wisest things i've ever heard was "if pro is the opposite of con, does that mean that process is the opposite of congress" … truer words were never spoken.

We need people that can actually think and do OBJECTIVELY without prejudice and preconceived notions, and politically correct nonsense. *people know* they have the exact zip code of *every* known case (fake, boosted or otherwise), and they could make an exact zip code level map but they refuse to do so even though it would literally save 10s of 1000s of lives. Why do they refuse? I personally can't imagine why; who gives a shit if that 'area' makes cities look bad because the high population density is where the problem is? so be it, find out share and attack the problem like a honey badger on a boot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNCUh4QJCYo

Back to the '2% bed capacity'; the us army corps of engineers spent $660M to build 10s of 1000s of hospital bed capacity that treated a couple thousand patients not to mention the two 1000 bed hospital ships that were never utilized over a few %. Misdirected from terrible computer models that brought us to the unnecessary shutdowns. Once the trajectory of the actual hospitalizations could be plotted from actual cases in actual hospitals they had the ability to course correct; maybe so cases could be say under 50% of the hospital beds and 95% of the counties in the usa could be completely open.

I lost the page with the exact statistics but something like this: 80% of all cv cases are in 30 of the 1000s of counties in the entire usa and 95% are in like 100 counties. why were nearly 100% of counties in lockdown for this? People know where county lines are, they know which counties where the disease is prevalent but for unknown reasons *all* the counties go to lockdown it makes no sense. Did 'the people in charge' just insist to 'go with the lie' because they couldn't admit they made a terrible decision.

Back to my comment about 2021 suicides; I doubt that more people will be saved in 2020 from shutdown that will lose their life from depression in 2021 for losing their wife, family job, car…. it's an impossible thing to quantify but it's coming; 900% jump in suicide hotline calls this year already.

crystalworks · #6 05-20-2020, 05:58 PM

Thanks Andrew. Good info and echoes my thoughts on a number of things.

Overboost · #7 05-20-2020, 06:00 PM

Very well put Andrew. Time for everyone to get back to work making for a productive US economy again.

andrewwynn · #8 05-20-2020, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Overboost

Very well put Andrew. Time for everyone to get back to work making for a productive US economy again.

wooooorld economy :-D

Happy · #9 05-20-2020, 06:01 PM

+1 Andrew

andrewwynn · #10 05-20-2020, 06:24 PM

It's coming (back to work), and people are soooooo jonsin' to work. My wife has been asking daily since march when will she be able to get back to work.

People are very unaware of just how small the statistical spread of covid is; here are some hard facts: what's the highest covid official daily death toll: about 2000 in the usa, now close to 1000… how many is the NORMAL death toll for the usa: 7000… does that mean that we went up to 9000 deaths/day at the peak and now are 8000? It assuredly does not. I do not know what those totals are and i don't think that the people that do know will tell us because it will make the 'nanny (police) state' look really really bad. Think about it this way; if the peak death rate went from 7000 to 8000 at the peak of covid death rates (which we are past that point by a couple weeks at least now), that is FOURTEEN PERCENT increase in the normal daily death toll of the usa. It's a large total number of people sure, because we have 330 million or so in the usa; compare the number next year to the number of suicides it will be a bigger number in 2021 kill themselves (for certain) than the *actual* number of direct covid deaths in 2020 (a number we will never know due to the puffing of numbers that the doctors and cdc openly admit too); another example; in Hamburg Germany they did autopsies on the 2500 or so covid deaths; 100% of them had significant health risks that were just pushed pass the limit by covid; covid was not the primary cause of death (but was listed by WHO etc as a covid death).

I will make another note of personal importance; using masks as routine is not healthy; I contracted a horrible sinus infection due to not being able to clear my nose of food that i coughed into my sinus ; the combination of taking almost a week to figure out, difficulty in getting a diagnosis and the antibiotics that took out my good gut bacteria put me out of commission for nearly 3 weeks; (to be clear; wearing a mask for going to stores and working in a client's house made me quite sick for 3 weeks); food for thought.

I predict by next year when people can actually figure out (as the CDC* pointed out today it's not really transmitted via hard surfaces like table or door knob) how hard it really is to transmit and figure out who is really susceptible and why (is it environment or genetics)? Why are the hospitalized 45% black when that is 3x the usa demographic? Is is because of the higher density of blacks in inner city or like sickle cell anemia is it genetic? in any event, if cv19 doesn't disappear we will have studies to know the answer to who actually is affected by it and get through 2021 informed vs completely ignorant. Also once people get it that we have things in the works to get informed and start building new factories to bring mfg. back to america etc, buy stocks any stocks all stocks, it will shoot like a rocket.