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  #141  
Old 04-05-2020, 03:50 PM
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The number of sick keeps on increasing at an exponential rate with no hint of slowing down.

The next 2 to 3 weeks are going to be even worse than now. As of March 29 we're already at 300,000 and counting.

Instead of proactively dealing with this pandemic, we've been one step behind EVERYBODY out there since day one.

Korea has 1/6 of US population. Their first case started the same date as us, 12/31/2019.

Their peak is long gone and their covid 19 cases are much much lower than ours.

Right now we have 15 times more cases than them despite only having 6 times more in population.

https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...tling-covid-19

Death rate right now is around 2.7%, 8,100 dead out of 300,000. Numbers keep changing but safe to say this virus is much deadlier than your common flu.

With no real leadership at the federal level, conflicting recommendations from the very top, and the dislike of most population to wear masks, we're going to suffer much more heavy losses than necessary.
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  #142  
Old 04-06-2020, 03:09 AM
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Korea only quarantined the sick, the at risk and the elderly. Everyone else continued to go to work and keep their economy going.

Still if you listen to the epidemiologists they say that there is anywhere from 5 to 7 times the number infected versus the number of confirmed cases, so taking that into account the mortality rate in the United States would then be even lower than the roughly 2% the CDC quotes.

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  #143  
Old 04-06-2020, 07:00 AM
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Korea did that because they run a much more effective campaign against the virus compared to us. They have a massive, nationwide testing program in place very early on. That's how they were able to find out where the virus is rampaging and then direct their efforts accordingly.

They acted much quicker to ramp up production of ventilators and masks. Made masks available to all citizens, and throttle the distribution to their drug stores so no one is allowed to hoard or resale for profit.

They are able to continue their economy because they took this outbreak serious RIGHT FROM THE START!

Not like us, we dragged our feet... Compared to Korea or Germany, we are 1 to 2 months late in implementing just about every essential policies to fight this virus.

Whether it's testing, securing or distributing essential items like masks or ventilators, or even giving out the right advice in a timely and non conflicting matter, we're sadly behind in every single strategy.

Even though all the facts were already there from the start, even though we have all the technology and funds available, and even though we have countries playing out the whole infection progress in front of us to teach us what to do and what not to do.

We can’t turn the economy back on right now, because we didn’t FLATTEN THE CURVE!

You can take your own educated guess as to why we didn’t flatten the curve.

I’m not gonna argue and convince you what the mortality rate should be. You believe what you want.

But you are wrong if you think this thing will end at 2% death rate if we continue to fail at flattening the curve.

We already dropped the ball when it was early and we had a shot at preventing it from spreading.

Now we suffer the consequences.
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Last edited by Maruzo; 04-06-2020 at 07:14 AM.
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  #144  
Old 04-06-2020, 10:07 AM
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^That's one of the pitfalls of having States' rights. Slows a unified response. You have to take the good with the bad. Same thing with capitalized health care. On time delivery and other cost efficiency measures lead to on-hand shortages during periods of extreme demand.

If you are unhappy with the response, exercise your vote for State Rep and the State legislature. As much as I dislike Trump the collective response is not his fault alone. Fortunately, our city mayor and county judge have been doing an excellent job and both will be getting my vote when they are up for reelection. At the Federal level I think you should start mentally preparing for 4 more years of Trump as Biden is not looking/sounding good mentally. . As usual, our choices will be "bad" and "worse.". Your opinion on which is which may vary.
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  #145  
Old 04-06-2020, 10:38 AM
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The percent of mortality lags the number the number of cases. Rates of mortality will vary. Our rate can be estimated as we go through this but any accuracy will be in the data after the outbreak has past.
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  #146  
Old 04-06-2020, 11:43 AM
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We started a response at the end of January with travel bans and as for ventilators even NY has not needed the extra machines yet. NYC actually put out a statement saying to not worry about coronavirus and to come on down to their parade (possibly causing a spread) not to mention that several Governors have banned the use of certain medications in "off label" prescriptions. I don't care what political party someone is but trying to control possible therapies is...

1) Wrong

2) Most likely illegal (practicing medicine w/o a license) or making a diagnosis without patient interaction.

3) Makes it seem to be motivated by political animus (real or not, perception is reality) for many people.

As I have stated many, many times the numbers are NOT my take on it. It is what we call "math" and 2+2=4 no matter a person's opinion is.
If anyone comes up with different numbers then please list the numbers used and just like in school and science "show your work" please. If I have made a mistake in my math I will own up to it happily.


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  #147  
Old 04-06-2020, 11:47 AM
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Don't panic, Your local situation may vary anywhere from overstuffed populations to "what the hell are neighbors?"

Packed population center leadership (Mayors, City Council, and the State Governors should be the ones who make local decisions on a case by case (town/City/County) situation. The Federal Gov is not responsible in telling your local town to shut down unless there is a NATIONAL crisis. Their job is to coordinate efforts, provide guidance, define best practices as information becomes clear, not hold your hand. See States Rights in the Constitution for a basic Civics lesson on responsibilities of failing local leadership seeking political cover. (See Michigan for lead in the drinking water for another example of failed local leadership)

The current hot pockets in the USA all showed poor local leadership to get in front of the situation, to control who comes in to your area, etc (Think open border crowd) as they were busy arguing politics against the current Administration to gain political advantages for the up coming election cycle. See NY Mayor calling for everyone to go to Chinatown and eat at the Restaurants to show your not a racist.

The loose screw New Orleans Mayor who was every so excited for the Mardi Gras tourist volumes, now blames Trump for her actions ("He needed to tell me to cancel it!"

New Orleans has its own unique issues and these under lining health issues:
"New Orleans residents suffer from obesity, diabetes and hypertension at rates higher than the national average, conditions that doctors and public health officials say can make patients more vulnerable to COVID-19, the highly contagious respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus."

Some 97% of those killed by COVID-19 in Louisiana had a preexisting condition, according to the state health department. Diabetes was seen in 40% of the deaths, obesity in 25%, chronic kidney disease in 23% and cardiac problems in 21%."

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released for the first time this week a report showing that 78% of COVID-19 patients in ICUs in the United States had an underlying health condition, including diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic lung disease.

Hold your local leaders to task for their inability to lead. Scapegoating is a national pastime for every big city politician.

Advice: Ignore those who go on TV waving their arms to say "save us". Your in charge. What is YOUR plan? Tell them do what the business leader in Johnstown, PA did when they were flooded. He went and shipped in by train in 24 hrs food, manpower help, and medical supplies out of his own pocket as he only had tell/ask himself what to do. That is the hallmark of action leadership. See a problem, devise a solution (doesn't have to be the BEST) and act aggressively on it. Tweak your solution as warranted by conditions (demand/supply/manpower) All you can do is all you can do. You can't do more.

Now you are in charge of yourself, your family, and your home. What's YOUR plan? Waiting on the Gov to tell you? If so you are going to be gone in the first wave...

Stay safe, stay healthy, be smart and be prepared for the next wave or event.
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Last edited by StephenVA; 04-06-2020 at 11:55 AM.
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  #148  
Old 04-06-2020, 12:11 PM
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I kind of find it amusing that the ones that were all in favor of open borders, sharing heroin needles and pooping in the streets are now suddenly concerned about the spread of a disease.

February 2020: OMG Trump is a dictator, he has to go
April 2020: OMG Trump is not being enough of a dictator, he has to go.

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  #149  
Old 04-06-2020, 12:19 PM
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^Agree. San Antonio did not wait for the State or Feds to direct them.

And agree with bcredliner. We won't have accurate estimated numbers until the dust from all this has long settled. Just keep watching the numbers grow so we can get an idea of the plateau, not really accurate/compete enough for mortality rate or other statistical analysis yet.
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  #150  
Old 04-06-2020, 12:30 PM
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Stats are indeed lacking any insights. The Computer generated predictions are built upon faulty input so the results are...garbage in...garbage out.

Key leading indicators will be IDed and future graphical charts will expose critical decision points. All in hindsight, which has nothing to do with critical decisions being made with limited info at decision points.

Can't wait until the Congressional Hearing circus starts up. Arm chair quarterbacks ready to find the guilty parties (of which they do not belong to).
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The Blue ones are always FASTER....

Current Garage:
2005 X5 4.8is
2002 M5 TiSilver
2003 525iT
1998 528i
Former Garage Stable Highlights
2004 325XiT Sport
1973 De Tomaso Pantera, L Model
1970 Dodge Challenger T/A 4 sp Alpine White
1970 Dodge Challenger T/A 4 sp GoManGo Green
1971 Dart Sport, “Dart Light” package
1969 Road Runner 383
1968 Ply Barracuda 340S FB Sea-foam Green
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