There are models out there suggesting 80% of the US population is going to get infected over the course of this (possibly years) no matter how you react. Quarantine, stay at home orders, social distancing, etc is all slowing down the curve in an effort to not over run the health care system. So far, no hospital has run out of ventilators or ICU beds. That includes NY City.

Letting certain portions of the population get back to work might not be the worst idea in the world for certain areas of the country. We should all be required to wear masks at work though. This virus could be around for a year or more, we can't stay at home for that entire period. You'd lose more lives to suicide and domestic violence than to the virus. And you'd still not have a vaccine at the end of that year.

I'm no fan of this administration, and Trump is doing his best to look like a fool during his press conferences (especially yesterday's), but there is nothing that has been done any worse than any other country in his response to the virus. They aren't doing anything better than any other country either.
But Trump is deferring to his health advisors, which is a good thing. I hope he continues to do so. Just wish he'd shut the hell up.

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Most likely 95% or more of the population will get this infection before vaccination or herd immunity is acquired (which for an easily transmitted disease like this would most likely require over 80% immune in the population). Like you said in the mean time health care capacity is the main concern. When the spreading goes linear instead of exponential giving some slack to portions of people would be more beneficial to the outcome. Still high risk people with immune deficiency (also age related) or difficult underlying diseases should be isolated for their own good. And this is just the medical point. There might come time when we have to consider if the economical problems overcome the downsides of the disease. We can't shut down the world forever.

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We all need to get back to work and soon. The effects of the global shut down will be felt for years to come even if we all started back tomorrow. I need to get back to work to provide for my family.

Quarantine is when you restrict the movement of sick people, tyranny is when you restrict the movement of healthy people.

I wonder when and how this restart of the economy will be implemented and what proof of immunity will be needed or enforced. All I can say is I already have my immunity passport or quantum dot tattoo.

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There are a couple of countries that have relaxed some of the restrictions and have seen cases start to rise again. WHO has a list of six requirements that must be in place to open any portion of a country. We have not achieved one of them anywhere. Trump is going to push and intimidate the experts to open as much of the country as he can. If the cases start to increase it will be the fault of the experts, World Heath Org., Governors or Mayors. We are fortunate that state officials are in charge of when anything opens as they were the closings.

IMO, If Trump does not have a great economy and low unemployment for voters he has not much of anything even for his base. And, I think there is a better chance of one of us being elected president than the possibility of getting the virus under control and even a fair economy back by then.

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I agree with you on the states rights and governors/mayors being in charge as being a good thing. The idea in some countries (Sweden comes to mind) is to keep deaths as low as possible by quarantining the vulnerable while still keeping the economy going and perhaps building some herd immunity. People are going to die, right now the US is forecasting roughly the same number of deaths from the Wuhan Virus as the yearly flu ~65,000. We don't shut down the country, or even bat an eye, over the seasonal flu.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

I wouldn't trust the WHO any further than I could throw them. They are in bed with China and inept (I seem to recall them recommending we not wear masks originally). And unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on which way your political dong dangles, Trump is going to be our next POTUS. I have zero belief the Bernie supporters will actually vote for Biden. I was going to vote for ANYONE the Democrats ran... except Biden. Have a feeling I am not a lone in that sentiment. He can barely string sentences together at times. I feel for him, he should be with family enjoying the rest of his life. Not a puppet for the DNC.

Agree on all points you made but shortened the quote.

For some reason a portion of the population thinks any talk of getting people back to work is choosing money over lives. That's not seeing the forest from the trees. It's like saying, "people are dying because they are able to drive cars... So we should ban driving until we can make a car that you can not die in." People die every day and it certainly isn't something trivial, but we can not protect 100% of people, 100% of the time.

I like your ink OB. I don't know if it will come to identifying immune people in order to get them back to work. But I wouldn't want to be the officer who tries to tell you not to work.

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OB love the ink here's my old team ink...

Anything for a friend.

Everything to an enemy.



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"When the Team Chief said.... You're trapped in a hole with nothing but a goat and a slinky, what do you do? Stubby said, I'm not sure but it won't end well for the goat...." ~(Overheard) Last day, Phase 3, Q Course

Currently the only measurement of infected individuals are those that are hospitalized. We are just starting to estimate the overall infection rate. The more testing the more accurate the measurement. As long as the overall infection rate is greater than one infected individual infecting only one other the virus is not under control.

Individuals that choose to resist or ignore the guidelines intended to reduce the number infected by another to less than one person are part of extending the length of time the guidelines will be needed, contributing to extending the time they will not be working and the negative impact on the economy. As long as citizens resist what is necessary to stop the spread of the virus the longer the associated difficulties in our personal lives will continue.

The health care system becomes a problem when there are no guidelines. But, the most important reason to continue guidelines is that people are dying. If one was told they will get the virus in no uncertain terms, and they will infect their loved ones, perhaps they would think differently about rather to err on the side of caution or not.

The is no likely percent of how many will be infected. But, it is certain that the more people that do not do their part the higher that percent will be. Nor is there a likely percent of immunity that experts can predict will be enough. Eighty percent of 380 million means the 76 million will still be infected and the corresponding death rate in just the US.

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