RE: X5 Unrelated, but Good Information in Times of Need - Page 59

Happy · #**581** 05-20-2020, 07:11 PM

Yeah Andrew I know what you mean. I’ve been popping Cetirizine like crazy to keep those issues from occurring.

The carbon dioxide thing is similar to when, a F1 car takes in dirty air. (This is a car forum, so that’s why I use this analogy). The car can catastrophically fail in certain circumstances.

Same goes for us. We are the most advanced creation on earth, however we are still susceptible to dirty air.

Masks can even lower your immune system.

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Happy · #**582** 05-20-2020, 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maruzo

Mask combined with constant hand washing. I started this thread touting the use of soap to kill off bacteria and virus like covid-19.l on ur hands.

I’ve always felt, washing hands after any exposure to any place deemed contaminated by oneself is the best practice. Also, I highly suggest avoiding any and all contact with nose, ears and mouth.

StephenVA · #**583** 05-20-2020, 07:20 PM

Andrew as always good insight. Thanks for the link as the interactive charts help display the underlying conditions that compromises individuals whom Covid-19 just takes out with the first hit, similar the way the flu does but at higher rates I am sure. Got asthma, cardio disease, High blood pressure, or are you obese? Stay out of tight spaces and crowds....

bcredliner · #**584** 05-20-2020, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrewwynn

Look at some basic statistical realities; as of 9 may, the us hospitals are down below 20,000 beds used for covid; that is 2% of capability. CDC stopped posting updates after 9 may because the will show that the bed requirement is now 'below background noise' but people are afraid to go to the hospital to get their needed kidney or heart surgery it's not great.

With something like 50% of all covid deaths coming from old age homes, and that is maybe 1/2% of the population it makes them 200x more at risk; the high risk class needs to be protected and the rest will take care of itself the country has been ready to open before it closed. The closures were based on models that predicted 50-200x as many deaths.

The 'nearly 100k' deaths are also quite known to be padded; the CDC and Dr. Birx admitted this and advised this in plain english back in April maybe even March. Did anybody notice that flu deaths that were over 30,000 in march suddenly dropped to zero before may? Those people with flu were of course still dying they just called it a covid death.

So; yup 1000s still dying of covid, but the % of which are actually caused by a heart attack or a car accident are literally impossible to know because doctors are putting covid on the death certificate on advice of CDC (though Colorado recently took 200 off their cv death count do to 'not really covid'); the other 49 states have yet to do the same.

If you plotted the actual location of covid deaths on a map it would look like the skinny red lines on an eyeball; 99% of the area of the country is not affected. approximately 1% of the population has officially contracted covid, and 1/33 of 1% is on the official death toll (meaning closer to 1/50 of 1% of the population had a mortal combat they lost).

Had the models been more accurate back in march the world wold not have closed down and the death tolls would not be significantly different (example: sweden). Keep the high-risk people as safe as reasonably possible just like the rules for flu. take note that 92% of deaths include people with significant health risks such as high blood pressure (60%) and obesity (50%). With so many dying coming from old age homes, they may have been on their last month or 6 of life already and covid was just the last straw their weakened immune system couldn't take.

All that said, Next year if covid is still around (sars, the closest thing we have as an example just literally disappeared all on its own), it won't be the first time and we will have experience to use for guidance. The economy can rebound quite quickly because there will be a very strong push to get 'mission critical' manufacturing out of china, which will be a boon for companies to build plants and hire people in non-china locations like Indonesia but also in the USA when the labor cost isn't stupid expensive compared to the alternatives.

see this website from CDC: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

look for the weekly report of hospitalizations and take note of the quick decline over the last two or three reported weeks and the oddly missing recent weeks. As long as covid cases can be coped with at a non increasing rate there is no reason the world can't be back in operation.

Link would not let me get past the disclaimer. Probably a security setting on my computer.

Whether count is over or under the number of deaths the count is the only number we have to reference. How many do you think have died, how long before it reaches 100,000, and how long before the economy recovers is your guess?

Usually manufacturing follows the lowest labor rate around the world. Some manufacturing will come back but lots of focus will be on automation to minimize number of people rehired. Moving or major automating will not start until there is a good indication of long term demand. In the interim US based companies should already be implementing short term plans to hire back as few people as possible with changes that have a quick payback with little product demand. That said, we are breaking new ground so history could be worthless but I think major manufacturing will start with what has worked in the past.

I don't believe we have to accept that old people should be sacrificed for any reason. I think we are very capable of creating a plan that is best for all and the economy. Right now there is no plan at all which puts all aspects in jeopardy.

Deaths are not the only issue. Research has discovered that recovery does not mean there isn't permanent damage to all ages. We need to have universal measurements that all states implement that triggers stages of opening and drawbacks if things go the wrong direction. No plan will work unless enough of the population follows the guidelines to protect ourselves and others. I can't see how any approach is anything better than a guess with knowing so little about the virus and no applicable experience for a guide. Who knows what a good plan should be, especially when the US leadership can't even form a straight line to the john. Overall, thus far, it appears we are bent on feeding the virus.

andrewwynn · #**585** 05-20-2020, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maruzo

Mask combined with constant hand washing. I started this thread touting the use of soap to kill off bacteria and virus like covid-19.l on ur hands.

Yup, and i said back in january thet completely unrelated to covid, the message of hygiene will save 10s of 1000s of lives because at the time about 2000 people a week were dying from the flu (and zero per month were dying from covid).

I will still point out that do to 'driving completely blind' due to 'the powers that be' completely keeping us in the dark as to where and why it's high risk, we are aimlessly trying to avoid something we have no idea where it is.

statistics are bearing out that primarily people that were 'on the way out' just got bumped up in the line to the grim reaper and that people are mostly at risk if they are in very very high population density. Explain why 60% of non nursing home deaths in NYC have been from people who were 'stay at home'. It's a bit of an enigma but i suspect when they are staying 'at home' they are actually just not leaving the building but mixing it up with other people that have the same street address (which could be 1000s in a NYC building).

do some simple math of cases or deaths per county, consider that even if you have symptoms that up to this day, if you call in to your nurse hotline they will say unless the symptoms are bad stay at home and self medicate; that means the numerator is much larger than used for *all* of the mortality statistics meaning the death rate is a lot less than all the shown data.

Having shopped many days during the pandemic in chicagoland , only once did i feel 'at risk' when i heard somebody cough about 20' from me. The other 40-60x nope i did not feel at risk; why? I'm not in the inner city and i'm not >65 *and* living in a retirement home.

I'm in the 99% that should not feel at risk for covid 19; does it mean i'm invisible nope in fact when I went to get checked when i thought i had an ear infection (turned out to be acid reflux burned my inner ear), I was tested for cv19 because i had a few overlapping symptoms. (also negative).

It's really annoying seeing so much excess resources being wasted disinfecting literally 100,000,000x the surface areas needed, and blocking off reasonable access to 'the entire world' by again, perhaps 100,000x because people are afraid to be politically incorrect and point out exactly where the virus is. There is *no map* of where the virus is, but the statistics show it is 'inner city', so it's seemingly political which is ludicrous and asinine.

Oh; as far as 'blocking it from getting into the usa'; before we knew it was in the usa it was probably in every single state; there were about 400,000 people that flew from the epicenter of the source into the usa in the months of dec and january, and mostly came through NYC but went to every state in the union. With the long period of incubation and possibly (not shown for sure) transfer before symptoms are visible, it spread everywhere and that's why it 'spread' so fast; it didn't spread it was already there. Mostly just where the population density was highest. (still holding true to this day).

Happy · #**586** 05-20-2020, 07:33 PM

Andrew this virus was in Texas definitely during the last week of December.

andrewwynn · #**587** 05-20-2020, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Whether count is over or under the number of deaths the count is the only number we have to reference. How many do you think have died, how long before it reaches 100,000, and how long before the economy recovers is your guess?

valid point didn't mean to gloss over your question. with the semi-official count of 92k and about 1k/day we have about a week until the usa 'official' count will be 100.

looking at the current charts it appears the usa is within a month of basically looking at CV19 in the rear view mirror. I think we will see a very quick drop in official unemployment numbers but they will still be pretty bad for a year or so because of the half-baked return to business (restaurants etc only running at 50% capabilities etc) will limit how many people can go right back to work, for sure. That said i think that because of the drive that will happen and for sure federal incentives to make it happen there will be a very large push to get business of all types to relocate to US soil which will likely be a huge blessing in disguise over the cv19; it would have taken 20 years to make a 'reset' in how much the usa depends on China, and the main reason we couldn't make solid inroads to a correction is that it would 'be too big hit to our economy'.

People a lot smarter than me regarding those things are aware of a once in a century chance we have for realignment and i believe they will take advantage of it so that will make that 20 year 'possible' rest to happen in maybe 4-5 years.

So; 4-5 years I think we will not just have recovered but will be back on top of the world in a way that will have staying power; a year ago it was predicted that china will outpace the usa GDP within a few years, well i don't think that will happen in the next 15-20 with the corona reset. It will take some time to build up those new on-shore companies and put 30 million people back to work but it will happen the usa will rebound and come out on top as we always have and always will.

Quote:

Usually manufacturing follows the lowest labor rate around the world. Some manufacturing will come back but lots of focus will be on automation to minimize number of people rehired. Moving or major automating will not start until there is a good indication of long term demand. In the interim US based companies should already be implementing short term plans to hire back as few people as possible with changes that have a quick payback with little product demand. That said, we are breaking new ground so history could be worthless but I think major manufacturing will start with what has worked in the past.

Automation was already on track to kill a ton of jobs. most of the lost jobs right now are not those jobs and that's still a problem that's coming but I think that a 'usa first' thought process with government giving assists (like NY state would do for companies relocating there (no state tax for a decade kinda thing); if the feds play the cards right with tax incentives like no cap gains for bringing the trillions of off shore american company loot for coming back to the usa it costs the feds ZERO to do that; they would never bring that income back they will spend the $ off shore first.

Quote:

I don't believe we have to accept that old people should be sacrificed for any reason. I think we are very capable of creating a plan that is best for all and the economy. Right now there is no plan at all which puts all aspects in jeopardy.

I agree; i think that old people and inner city need to be where the focus is; literally, make the map i described, find out where the risk is and pool the resources where the problem is, stop with the moronic 'because i think it would be good' nonsense of the dictatorial governors.

Quote:

Deaths are not the only issue. Research has discovered that recovery does not mean there isn't permanent damage to all ages. We need to have universal measurements that all states implement that triggers stages of opening and drawbacks if things go the wrong direction. No plan will work unless enough of the population follows the guidelines to protect ourselves and others. I can't see how any approach is anything better than a guess with knowing so little about the virus and no applicable experience for a guide. Who knows what a good plan should be, especially when the US leadership can't even form a straight line to the john. Overall, thus far, it appears we are bent on feeding the virus.

One of the wisest things i've ever heard was "if pro is the opposite of con, does that mean that process is the opposite of congress" … truer words were never spoken.

We need people that can actually think and do OBJECTIVELY without prejudice and preconceived notions, and politically correct nonsense. *people know* they have the exact zip code of *every* known case (fake, boosted or otherwise), and they could make an exact zip code level map but they refuse to do so even though it would literally save 10s of 1000s of lives. Why do they refuse? I personally can't imagine why; who gives a shit if that 'area' makes cities look bad because the high population density is where the problem is? so be it, find out share and attack the problem like a honey badger on a boot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNCUh4QJCYo

Back to the '2% bed capacity'; the us army corps of engineers spent $660M to build 10s of 1000s of hospital bed capacity that treated a couple thousand patients not to mention the two 1000 bed hospital ships that were never utilized over a few %. Misdirected from terrible computer models that brought us to the unnecessary shutdowns. Once the trajectory of the actual hospitalizations could be plotted from actual cases in actual hospitals they had the ability to course correct; maybe so cases could be say under 50% of the hospital beds and 95% of the counties in the usa could be completely open.

I lost the page with the exact statistics but something like this: 80% of all cv cases are in 30 of the 1000s of counties in the entire usa and 95% are in like 100 counties. why were nearly 100% of counties in lockdown for this? People know where county lines are, they know which counties where the disease is prevalent but for unknown reasons *all* the counties go to lockdown it makes no sense. Did 'the people in charge' just insist to 'go with the lie' because they couldn't admit they made a terrible decision.

Back to my comment about 2021 suicides; I doubt that more people will be saved in 2020 from shutdown that will lose their life from depression in 2021 for losing their wife, family job, car…. it's an impossible thing to quantify but it's coming; 900% jump in suicide hotline calls this year already.

Happy · #**588** 05-20-2020, 08:20 PM

andrewwynn, you are a good man! I like your character.

Thank you for the information you provided. Very good read!

andrewwynn · #**589** 05-20-2020, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy

Andrew this virus was in Texas definitely during the last week of December.

It was probably in every state by early january. Officially there were 100s of 1000s of people being treated for 'the bad flu' going around; we will never know how many of those were actually cv19 but it was *quite a lot of them*

400,000 people came to usa in the month from mid dec to mid jan… means quite likely 200,000 of them came before new years. if half of 1% of them carried the virus that's 1000 people with unrestricted travel around the entire usa, sharing the plane with 100s of people on the way, they say in close contact over 2:1 transmission so that means 3000 people maybe or 60 per state average where they were talking about 2, 3, 4 people per state by february 'officially'

Here's an example from the past of people putting their priorities in the wrong place to *not solve a problem*.

back in the 90s a university did a study on what comprises the items in a garbage dump; they also then interviewed 1000s of college students to ask them what they thought was the makeup of garbage.

What were students most concerned about filling out landfill (due to moronic PC culture)? styrofoam and disposable diapers… want to know what they thought those percentages were?

College students thought that diapers were 20-30% of garbage and likewise for styrofoam.

Quote:

“No question, we are disappointed that they made this decision,” said Eric Dezenhall, a spokesman for the National Polystyrene Recycling Co. Its experiments with foam recycling had made McDonald’s “one of the best educational resources in the country,” he said.

McDonalds was the KEY to getting polystyrnene into the recycling channels and that was completely eliminated once big macs were switched to paper products.. ZERO percent of paper big mac containers will ever be recycled and 10s of 1000s of trees are turned into big mac containers now.

the truth of styrofoam in the dumps; 1/2 of 1% was and still is 30 years later styrofoam. was a non-issue, IS a non-issue. Any attempt to use something else will *aboslutely* be more impact on the environment, it's just too small of a thing.

disposable diapers; likewise; they were coincidentally also 1/2 of 1% of the trash; eliminating them 100% would put the trash down to 99.5% before you factor in any other trash made in the process of making cloth diapers, than factor in the ginormously large foot pint on the environment to clean a cloth diaper vs dispose of a throw away one.

Back to the covid; it's the same thing; we are crippling everything for the 1/2 a percent. we need to target the 1/2 a percent in THIS CASE it's worth saving because the 1/2 a percent are 100,000 american loved ones, but we *never* had to destroy the lives of 50-100 million americans to not save 100,000. There is no way to show that wasting the trillions in resources changed that number..

recall from the beginning of the shutdown phase, the *entire point* wasn't to change the total death count that from centuries of evidence shows it's inevitable, it was to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed and stretch out how long it took to get to the 100 or 200,000 people, to prevent it from doubling or worse because people couldn't be treated. Many if not most people lost sight of that concept completely (changing flatten the curve to wait for a cure bs).. We got ahead of the curve in mid april regardless of how high the death rate got, we never got close to the capabilities of how many hospital beds and ventilators were available for treatment. For no apolitical reason, the goal post keeps getting moved for hypothetical reasons.

I am literally the only person i know that has taken the 'jab your brain just behind your eye' covid-19 test and came back negative, but yes i wear a mask for the brief time i'm inside stores and when i'm in chicago I also wear gloves; i also put hand sanitizer on the outside of my gloves when i get to my car and treat my key. i've been doing this since january. Why do i do it knowing what i do know about the 1:100,000 chance i might have bumped into somebody with covid that might have coughed on my hands while i was in the store? Because it's not too difficult to do and I have a 79 yr old dad that lives downstairs from me mostly.

Would it makes a lot of sense to be able to concentrate the resources so I could maybe not need a mask and people in dense population areas would have more, OF COURSE IT WOULD. Will the powers that be ever be honest enough that we can make an educated decision on the matter. not a chance in hell.

bcredliner · #**590** 05-20-2020, 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrewwynn

for me the bacteria trying to burrow into my brain* was worse than the CO2, but studies show that people that are high risk for headaches are FAR more likely to have headaches or worse headaches if they wear masks long term.

* anybody who's had a sinus infection with that distinctive 'behind the eye' headache knows exactly what i mean.

The masks are effective to help slow cough based germ spreading, but for every 10,000 people wearing a mask there might be 1 person that actually needs it; there needs to be a way to more or less track where the risk is to use protective devices when needed. I only wear my ear plugs when i'm operating loud tools.

*people know* where the high-risk zones of america are; they won't tell us because it's primarily 'inner city' and looks bad if they would plot that on a map. If they would put out a cv density map so people would know where to wear protective devices, they would be able to squash the spread of the disease without crippling the entire usa; why the heck should MT have to close their business when you could probably french kiss the entire population w/o catching covid.

Have a sinus infection right now. Gone through Z pack, follow up antibiotics because it didn't go away and ear drops because I also got an ear infection. I know what you mean, t's no fun at all. Wearing a mask when I am out and about anyway.

Wearing a mask is not for the wearer. It is for the wearer that is infected to reduce the the chance they infect someone else. What do you view as longterm?

I don't think it matters much who is more vulnerable or where they are. As long as we are so mobile one person can take it anywhere. It only takes one person to infect two others or more to fuel an increase in the rate of infection. We don't know enough to do anything other than err on the side of caution. I think that is the basis for the current guidelines from scientists as well that it has worked elsewhere. The first post by OP explained what our part is if we want this behind us. I don't see any of us knowing enough to second guess the calculations, conclusions or recommendations of the CDC. At this point it is the most credible input there is.

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