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  #671  
Old 05-23-2020, 08:06 AM
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Indeed one of the downsides of being self employed is the fact that when things get bad, there is no one but yourself to make things happen. I have always been able to make a middle class income by providing my services as honest and knowledgeable to my clients for coming up on 20 years.

When the all of the championship series' end their calendar year in November, times get slow for track support but electronic equipment sales for the upcoming year always pulled us through until the following season started up again with the IMSA 24 hour test in Daytona the first week of January.

Covid-19 has changed my perception on preparing for a "rainy day". I had never considered the fact that my source of income could be stopped dead in its tracks by a worldwide shutdown for months. Since my last event March 6th in COTA, I have worked 3 days at a test just a couple of weeks ago and I do not have another event scheduled until the end of June. That is 3 months of no income other than my wife's weekly pay from Target. We only received our stimulus check this week.

What a wonderful time for teams to have 3 months to go through all the cars mechanical and electronic systems. Yeah, NO. Everyone I know is clamped down on spending and watching each and every dollar. Even my clients with millions to spend on motorsports have taken a wood shed beating in the stock market.
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  #672  
Old 05-23-2020, 11:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Overboost View Post
Even my clients with millions to spend on motorsports have taken a wood shed beating in the stock market.
They should "only" be down about 10% ATM if their money managers are worth their salt. They could still be showing gains for the year. I'm up 15% (before I cashed out) on the small amount of funds (very small) I manage myself. Our 401k on the other hand is down, but that's to be expected as it generally follows the market. So about 10%

Now, if we don't get things moving again, and quickly. We could have another plummet and see it fall off a cliff again. That's why I got out with my small money. Figured it was better in the bank as I don't see another recovery check coming from Washington. Unemployment is great, if it ever gets to those who need it like Andrew. Texas must be doing a better job processing unemployment claims as both my sister and her husband are making more money not working than before. But for people like my wife and I, we don't qualify. So the recovery money was a welcome case of giving money to everyone who pays into the system rather than just business/corporate bailouts. We wouldn't mind another round of that.

In any case, I hope everyone is able to get back to doing the work they have chosen to support their families. Humans are creatures of habit and I think we are happiest when we have a sense of normalcy and things we can depend on. Namely, ourselves.
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  #673  
Old 05-23-2020, 11:47 AM
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The regular UI is getting paid in WI including the $600 which is infuriating for us self un employed. I have like 5-10x the average person's patience and it's starting to strain my patience. Wife on the other hand doesn't believe it's coming.

She had to wait about NINE months for her replacement green card it drive her nuts the entire time. We check every day the status exceeding that like all gvt crap rather than good to go, we will get feedback that we need to submit more forms.
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  #674  
Old 05-23-2020, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Happy View Post
I pray peace be upon your family, and with your wife especially.
Thank you
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  #675  
Old 05-23-2020, 03:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrewwynn View Post


They may 16 data is on CDC site for Nationwide hospitalization.

1500 beds out of 925,000

1500/925000=0.2%

So 1/5 of 1% of the USA's hospital beds are in use treating covid 19.

We over shot the goal of not going over 100 of capacity by a factor of 50-60.

Of course *some hospitals were completely packed but they have these magical boxes with wheels and engines.

Point is back to my original comments on yr his thread. We can handle the cases that come. We probably do not need to wear masks outside the house and especially not if you aren't the one infected.

Time machine history will show the entire lockdown was not needed at all. Isolate the high risk and use PPD like crazy when interfacing with high risk people and mandate for sick people.

I am in Chicago again, I will probably have to go to a couple stores and if they didn't require It I would not feel at risk not wearing a mask as long as I could keep a few feet from people maybe hold my breath once in a while when I'm close like handing a cc or the item I'm buying to the cashier.

I will use hand sanitizer when I get to my car. Common sense.

I'm not sure exactly where the common sense went, although one therory is that another much deadlier germ was piggy backed on cv19. Ebola level of deadly and until they were sure it wasn't, they locked down the country.

I'm a facts person. The facts of today do not warrant closure of the vast majority of buisnesses including restaurants and the 6' rule which sadly is likely here to stay has not been backed with science.

I've read of some very good studies in the works getting healthy young volunteers to subject themselves to the virus to answer these questions like can you catch it from 3' away from talking not coughing etc.

The death rates are only so high when the high risk are included. It will be less enough when those people are isolated, catching cv19 will be a common thing like a cold, treated as such. Hopefully they will get a vaccine that at least helps like with the flu so that can be an equivalent to isolation.

Without the flu vaccine, I have no doubt it would be as deadly as cv19. Also medicine will catch up. Docs were killing people with ventilators because they weren't the correct treatment they needed the likes of an iron lung. If cv19 is here to stay next year will be like a flu season. We will have a flu season and a CV season.

People will freak out when somebody sneezes but It won't shut down the entire GM plant when one person gets CV.

There is a 20 lag from cases to death on average, so it takes three weeks to confirm that a case trend is rising or falling but most states are dropping and the ones that opened up and aren't dropping the death rate is staying the same. That equates to a minor adjustment in the curves but as long as it doesn't start a new exponential growth it will be in the anti-log asymptote zone of the curve and will resolve itself.

A major factor and why I say with confidence we are in the final stages is: 1) after researching the data from 15 or so pandemic class viruses, 100% follow the logistics curve and I'm going with the odds
2) viruses tend so self limit because the sick people stay in bed, that greatly limits the ability of the virus to find a new host
3) many cases of a "tie" where the host dies. If an estimated 10,000 infected people kicked this thing off, 100,000 dying is a huge step in squashing the thing out of existence.

That's an estimated 210,000 people that won't contact cv from them. They all deserve a posthumous pueoly heart and I'm serious. They "gave their life to save another". They most likely didn't do It voluntarily but that still is the reality.

Now jump in the hot tub with me and let's explore March 2020 with 20/20 hindsight.

The world shut down for one primary reason: to make sure the hospitals could keep up.

The closest we came was maybe 0.432% of all the hospital beds. (let's say some of the numbers are wrong and multiply by 10: we get to FOUR percent!

The facts that back this logic are the almost completely empty beds on all but one of the field hospitals that we spent $660 million building.

They treated maybe 3000-5000 patients including at the Jarvis in NYC the ONLY one that was really ever used.

So we spent "a small house" (132,000) for EVERY patient treated at a field hospital.

These are extremely important facts that are kept from the public. How many of you have seen this info?

The goalposts have been moved so many times we can't see them.

The original 15 day chill pill will be shown to be the perfect amount of time to make a tiny course correction and save the USA economy and 20,000,000 jobs. We can't unwind and do it over but we can be "not ignorant" if we get bitch slapped by the thing again.
I agree, in hindsight, the estimates were grossly over estimated and the number of beds was certainly one of the prime reasons for the shutdown. But closing the country also considered the best way to minimize the cases since it was unknown how widespread the virus was at that time. There was no way to know what states could stay open or should close. Both were based on the success or failure of other countries trying to slow infections to get to the level of control. I don't think the number of beds nationwide was the issue. Rather it was the number of beds that would be needed in individual hot spots. That said, NY as bad as it got, didn't need that many more beds then they already had and that was only for a short period of time.

The 6 ft. distance came from historical measurements of normal non virus travel of saliva from talking, yelling, coughing and sneezing. It is probably based on the worst case of those criteria and some add on to be safe because there is no way to know which one will happen.

I agree that those that die reduce the number that will be infected. However, depending on how many people 1 person infects deaths that might not make much difference. If one person infects only 1 person there is a direct correlation but if one person infects two or more the number of infections will continue to grow and so will deaths The more people one person infects the faster the rate of infection, the higher point the curve will reach and the longer it will can take to get to infections to a level that can be controlled.

IMO, the best way to eliminate an economic impact, minimal safety measures and individual hardships is if we have an early warning system (supposed to be WHO and CDC) and we quickly stop all travel in and out of the county, immediately implement broad based testing and contact tracing and quarantining in large cities that are primary ports of entry for international travelers and protect or stop at least the large gathering places like stadiums and known high risk enclosures like nursing homes and prisons. Also, get our scientist on the ground in infected countries to help minimize the level of infection and doing the best that can be done to stop the virus spread to other areas and countries.

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Last edited by bcredliner; 05-23-2020 at 05:23 PM.
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  #676  
Old 05-23-2020, 06:48 PM
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NYC definitely got hit the hardest and I wouldn't be surprised if they got above 20-40% utilization. I recall a mass panic about needing 10,000 ventilators then having thousands in storage they ended up shipping elsewhere.

If cv ends up permanent, hospitals will have a CV wing complete with negative air pressure rooms.

There are ways to transport people if beds run out and NYC built a field hospital to alleviate the burden. I think the field hospital treated like 1000 patients.

With the field hospitals we way overshot but it did show it's possible to get some over flow bed capacity.

I'm ok with the initial shut down and the masks and such, abundance of caution but like I said the exponential rise stopped mid April and now it's end of May
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  #677  
Old 05-24-2020, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted by bcredliner View Post
I agree, in hindsight, the estimates were grossly over estimated and the number of beds was certainly one of the prime reasons for the shutdown. But closing the country also considered the best way to minimize the cases since it was unknown how widespread the virus was at that time. There was no way to know what states could stay open or should close. Both were based on the success or failure of other countries trying to slow infections to get to the level of control. I don't think the number of beds nationwide was the issue. Rather it was the number of beds that would be needed in individual hot spots. That said, NY as bad as it got, didn't need that many more beds then they already had and that was only for a short period of time.

The 6 ft. distance came from historical measurements of normal non virus travel of saliva from talking, yelling, coughing and sneezing. It is probably based on the worst case of those criteria and some add on to be safe because there is no way to know which one will happen.

I agree that those that die reduce the number that will be infected. However, depending on how many people 1 person infects deaths that might not make much difference. If one person infects only 1 person there is a direct correlation but if one person infects two or more the number of infections will continue to grow and so will deaths The more people one person infects the faster the rate of infection, the higher point the curve will reach and the longer it will can take to get to infections to a level that can be controlled.

IMO, the best way to eliminate an economic impact, minimal safety measures and individual hardships is if we have an early warning system (supposed to be WHO and CDC) and we quickly stop all travel in and out of the county, immediately implement broad based testing and contact tracing and quarantining in large cities that are primary ports of entry for international travelers and protect or stop at least the large gathering places like stadiums and known high risk enclosures like nursing homes and prisons. Also, get our scientist on the ground in infected countries to help minimize the level of infection and doing the best that can be done to stop the virus spread to other areas and countries.

Preventative maintenance.Troubleshoot, Diagnose, Overnight any parts not on hand---fix it right the first time.
I think that if our leader had taken this pandemic seriously at the beginning, the overall number of infections and deaths could have been mitigated. If our country had instituted testing and contact tracing like South Korea did at the very beginning of the infection our economy wouldn't be in the toilet. If we had accepted the test kits offered by WHO at the beginning instead of trying to develop our own test kits which later proved to be flawed, our country would have been in a better condition.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but when asked by a reporter if he would have done anything differently, our leader replied with No.

We had scientists and researchers in China but our leader cut the budget for CDC, and NIH. He stated that he was a "Business" man and didn't like all these people in the budget. I know there are plenty of people that don't agree with this, but this is America, and we can agree to disagree.
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  #678  
Old 05-24-2020, 10:37 AM
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Do you have reference for the who test kits I'm interested in following up on that. Also I read that China kicked out our scientists that were tapped into the Wuhan lab before the shit hit the fan so there would be no connection between our CDC/NIH and the catastrophe that unfolded. Not saying we weren't less prepared just saying it has very little bearing on how the USA got infected.

It didn't matter at all who was at the helm for many reasons and was certainly not a cause of the problem.

Like I've said, by the time we knew it was here it was FAR too late. We would have had to stop travel from China before Christmas. It would not have made much of a difference in the outcome had we had functional tests as the sick people were getting treated as if they had a flu etc they just didn't know it was cv.

There is still an incredible enigma to this thing: 2/3 of new cases in NYC from people who supposedly are in self quarantine that needs to be investigated especially as CDC just announced the Wuhan virus doesn't really spread via hard surfaces. Basically the summary of that is quarantine didn't help at all in NYC and probably made it worse.

There was a case when a virus spread through building's plumbing I think in China I thought but could have been a different country. Is this happening with cv19?

As I said before trying to pin the blame on our leaders is a very incorrect assessment. It's ok to have that opinion I'm saying point blank you are simply wrong. The beauty is it's perfectly ok for you to think I'm wrong and share the opinion. This forum not run by Google so we won't likely be scrubbed for sharing our thoughts. Not exactly sure when or why Google decided the first amendment only counts when it goes their way.

If you have some facts to back up how you arrived at your conclusion compared to the 1000 pages or so I've researched to arrive at mine please share. Facts can change my result if I missed something.

Another thought to share: why the HELL is everybody calling cv19 only coronavirus. Coronavirus is a CLASS of virus probably 1000s of them. When the Ford explorer had a recall due to stupidly high Cg combined with shitty tires they underinflated to make up for their shittyness, they referred to the problem as the EXPLORER not THE FORD. Yes it's that stupid.

So imagine today there was a recall on the X5 but every "news" article on it says there is a recall on THE BMW. It's important people are dying by the thousands so be careful out there and wear a mask so THE BMW won't kill you. Sounds pretty stupid correct. Every time says coronavirus instead of covid-19 it's exactly as ignorant.

Pay attention in the "news" you can maybe filter out some non news feeds using as a condition. If they ever say coronavirus, block that feed they are morons.
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  #679  
Old 05-24-2020, 11:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by andrewwynn View Post
Do you have reference for the who test kits I'm interested in following up on that. Also I read that China kicked out our scientists that were tapped into the Wuhan lab before the shit hit the fan so there would be no connection between our CDC/NIH and the catastrophe that unfolded. Not saying we weren't less prepared just saying it has very little bearing on how the USA got infected.

It didn't matter at all who was at the helm for many reasons and was certainly not a cause of the problem.

Like I've said, by the time we knew it was here it was FAR too late. We would have had to stop travel from China before Christmas. It would not have made much of a difference in the outcome had we had functional tests as the sick people were getting treated as if they had a flu etc they just didn't know it was cv.

There is still an incredible enigma to this thing: 2/3 of new cases in NYC from people who supposedly are in self quarantine that needs to be investigated especially as CDC just announced the Wuhan virus doesn't really spread via hard surfaces. Basically the summary of that is quarantine didn't help at all in NYC and probably made it worse.

There was a case when a virus spread through building's plumbing I think in China I thought but could have been a different country. Is this happening with cv19?

As I said before trying to pin the blame on our leaders is a very incorrect assessment. It's ok to have that opinion I'm saying point blank you are simply wrong. The beauty is it's perfectly ok for you to think I'm wrong and share the opinion. This forum not run by Google so we won't likely be scrubbed for sharing our thoughts. Not exactly sure when or why Google decided the first amendment only counts when it goes their way.

If you have some facts to back up how you arrived at your conclusion compared to the 1000 pages or so I've researched to arrive at mine please share. Facts can change my result if I missed something.

Another thought to share: why the HELL is everybody calling cv19 only coronavirus. Coronavirus is a CLASS of virus probably 1000s of them. When the Ford explorer had a recall due to stupidly high Cg combined with shitty tires they underinflated to make up for their shittyness, they referred to the problem as the EXPLORER not THE FORD. Yes it's that stupid.

So imagine today there was a recall on the X5 but every "news" article on it says there is a recall on THE BMW. It's important people are dying by the thousands so be careful out there and wear a mask so THE BMW won't kill you. Sounds pretty stupid correct. Every time says coronavirus instead of covid-19 it's exactly as ignorant.

Pay attention in the "news" you can maybe filter out some non news feeds using as a condition. If they ever say coronavirus, block that feed they are morons.
You have access to the internet, just look up WHO test kits refused by USA.
How the USA got infected was mostly and I state mostly from travelers from EUROPE. They have genome people with the virus and there are various studies by various group of scientists and researchers that the virus was from EUROPE. The virus may have originated originally from CHINA to Europe but the virus is from EUROPE. When did the USA stop travel between Europe?

Who was the person telling the American public that th virus was another Democrat HOAX? Who was the person telling the American public that there are only 15 cases and it will go away miraculously?

So if they don't use the term Covid-19 they are moron? Didn't Trump cross out the term Covid-19 or coronavirus and replace it with China Virus on a speech he gave that his speech writer wrote for him? (you can Google that also).

You were wrong about this thread:

https://xoutpost.com/bmw-sav-forums/...giving-up.html

I was the only one that was right about this thread:

https://xoutpost.com/bmw-sav-forums/...5-misfire.html
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  #680  
Old 05-24-2020, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by upallnight View Post
I think that if our leader had taken this pandemic seriously at the beginning, the overall number of infections and deaths could have been mitigated. If our country had instituted testing and contact tracing like South Korea did at the very beginning of the infection our economy wouldn't be in the toilet. If we had accepted the test kits offered by WHO at the beginning instead of trying to develop our own test kits which later proved to be flawed, our country would have been in a better condition.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but when asked by a reporter if he would have done anything differently, our leader replied with No.

We had scientists and researchers in China but our leader cut the budget for CDC, and NIH. He stated that he was a "Business" man and didn't like all these people in the budget. I know there are plenty of people that don't agree with this, but this is America, and we can agree to disagree.


These are all on record. His ineptitude in this crisis is not in dispute.

Even with the covid-19 crisis the re-election is still his to lose. All he had to do was get out of himself and let the experts handle it.

But no, he had to show hes in charge, and he had to make it much worse than it had any reason to be.
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