RE: X5 Unrelated, but Good Information in Times of Need - Page 62

EODguy · #**611** 05-21-2020, 11:53 AM

Stats on coronavirus, NY and CA

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Maruzo · #**612** 05-21-2020, 12:47 PM

Number of new cases going down on both states

andrewwynn · #**613** 05-21-2020, 01:01 PM

So this is an interesting note about the efficacy of the flu vaccine; it's terrible. It would have to improve quite a bit to become terrible.

With any luck any vaccine they come up with for cv19 will hopefully not be so nearly useless as the flu vaccine but I would not hold my breath.

The thing that bothers me the most about the flu vaccine is that its pushed so hard each year and people are shamed into taking it and get a false sense of security. Most years it's at best 30% effective some years almost useless (you can tell.which years because there will be a lot more hospitalizations those years).

I'm quite concerned about the prospect of a "holy Grail" cure. "what good is triple time if six months later you dick falls off".

@eod. What I noticed from the data is that at the worst the hospitalization rate like 5/100k and to no surprise the "one foot in grave" demographic is 8x the average but also as I pointed out the hospitalizations have petered off to almost background noise. 2/100,000 and that was 1-1/2 weeks ago no current rates.

Why is "hospitals nearly devoid of any patients at all much less cv19" isn't on a constant chyron can only be political and infuriates me. I shouldn't have to spend hours doing the job of what used to be journalists. As the well known song describes the concept of what used to be news is now dirty laundry. "if it bleeds it leads" legacy media doesn't care even the remotist little bit about the health and well-being of anybody. They are driven by the buck and scary stories sell. So the channels leap frog each other into mass hysteria and we'll here we are. CV 19 is mostly mass hysteria founded in facts by the real tragedies that do happen see Happy's post above but does a couple months of 10-15% higher death rate warrant setting back the USA a decade and $6-7 thousand billion dollars?

Of course not and when we have perfect clarity of past it's easy to say this but cv19 peaked mid April and it's over a month since then it's time to pull out the slide rules and look at some zip code statistics and determine where there is virtually no risk of cv and drop the masks literally.

I would give my mask to a high risk zone once I know mine isn't. We are intentionally kept in the dark (like mushrooms fed shit and kept in the dark). *people know* by zip code where is the risk they *could share it * for political and PC reasons they choose not to and 1000s did and 1000s more will die needlessly because of that moronic decision.

If the CDC simply made a shaded map by zip (county is pointless), people would know where they could safely go to a park, a movie, a restaurant. But they way this was horrible mangoed now 1000s of restaurants will be bankrupted, the ones to survive will have to greatly raise prices because they will only be able to host half the patrons. It's a disaster.

So: wash your hands logically (over washing is unhealthy you need some germs to exercise your immune system), wear a mask when it's logical. (not driving in your car for Christ sake), and give people a little bit of leniency. De-escalate don't escalate.

Peace.

Maruzo · #**614** 05-21-2020, 01:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrewwynn

So this is an interesting note about the efficacy of the flu vaccine; it's terrible. It would have to improve quite a bit to become terrible.

With any luck any vaccine they come up with for cv19 will hopefully not be so nearly useless as the flu vaccine but I would not hold my breath.

The thing that bothers me the most about the flu vaccine is that its pushed so hard each year and people are shamed into taking it and get a false sense of security. Most years it's at best 30% effective some years almost useless (you can tell.which years because there will be a lot more hospitalizations those years).

I'm quite concerned about the prospect of a "holy Grail" cure. "what good is triple time if six months later you dick falls off".

@eod. What I noticed from the data is that at the worst the hospitalization rate like 5/100k and to no surprise the "one foot in grave" demographic is 8x the average but also as I pointed out the hospitalizations have petered off to almost background noise. 2/100,000 and that was 1-1/2 weeks ago no current rates.

Why is "hospitals nearly devoid of any patients at all much less cv19" isn't on a constant chyron can only be political and infuriates me. I shouldn't have to spend hours doing the job of what used to be journalists. As the well known song describes the concept of what used to be news is now dirty laundry. "if it bleeds it leads" legacy media doesn't care even the remotist little bit about the health and well-being of anybody. They are driven by the buck and scary stories sell. So the channels leap frog each other into mass hysteria and we'll here we are. CV 19 is mostly mass hysteria founded in facts by the real tragedies that do happen see Happy's post above but does a couple months of 10-15% higher death rate warrant setting back the USA a decade and $6-7 thousand billion dollars?

Of course not and when we have perfect clarity of past it's easy to say this but cv19 peaked mid April and it's over a month since then it's time to pull out the slide rules and look at some zip code statistics and determine where there is virtually no risk of cv and drop the masks literally.

I would give my mask to a high risk zone once I know mine isn't. We are intentionally kept in the dark (like mushrooms fed shit and kept in the dark). *people know* by zip code where is the risk they *could share it * for political and PC reasons they choose not to and 1000s did and 1000s more will die needlessly because of that moronic decision.

If the CDC simply made a shaded map by zip (county is pointless), people would know where they could safely go to a park, a movie, a restaurant. But they way this was horrible mangoed now 1000s of restaurants will be bankrupted, the ones to survive will have to greatly raise prices because they will only be able to host half the patrons. It's a disaster.

So: wash your hands logically (over washing is unhealthy you need some germs to exercise your immune system), wear a mask when it's logical. (not driving in your car for Christ sake), and give people a little bit of leniency. De-escalate don't escalate.

Peace.

You are not wrong for the most part, andrew. But I think you need to consider the fact that America, as a country, has enjoyed prosperity and freedom for far too long without any threat of immediate harm on the back of their mind, for a very very long time. 911 being the obvious exception.

If you look at democratic countries like Germany, Korea, Taiwan, you can see that these countries acted much quicker to socially distance compared with the US.

We've been free to go about our ways for far too long without having to face any consequences, so when it came time to follow the social distance guidelines, most of us balked at it at first.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...8-e2188d0f4fc3

This study is done by University of Colombia. They calculate that if we as a country had acted 2 weeks earlier to start social distancing, the number of death due to covid-19 could have been reduced as much as 54,000.

There's an old saying, fixing the fence after the sheep had been lost.

That's what we're basically doing, playing catch up, while many of the countries who's had the sense of urgency all their lives (think germany after WWII, Korea after the Korean War), acted very quickly, freedom be damned, let's do what is necessary to slow down the virus spread first.

Just my 2 cents.

bcredliner · #**615** 05-21-2020, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrewwynn

Yup, and i said back in january thet completely unrelated to covid, the message of hygiene will save 10s of 1000s of lives because at the time about 2000 people a week were dying from the flu (and zero per month were dying from covid).

I will still point out that do to 'driving completely blind' due to 'the powers that be' completely keeping us in the dark as to where and why it's high risk, we are aimlessly trying to avoid something we have no idea where it is.

statistics are bearing out that primarily people that were 'on the way out' just got bumped up in the line to the grim reaper and that people are mostly at risk if they are in very very high population density. Explain why 60% of non nursing home deaths in NYC have been from people who were 'stay at home'. It's a bit of an enigma but i suspect when they are staying 'at home' they are actually just not leaving the building but mixing it up with other people that have the same street address (which could be 1000s in a NYC building).

do some simple math of cases or deaths per county, consider that even if you have symptoms that up to this day, if you call in to your nurse hotline they will say unless the symptoms are bad stay at home and self medicate; that means the numerator is much larger than used for *all* of the mortality statistics meaning the death rate is a lot less than all the shown data.

Having shopped many days during the pandemic in chicagoland , only once did i feel 'at risk' when i heard somebody cough about 20' from me. The other 40-60x nope i did not feel at risk; why? I'm not in the inner city and i'm not >65 *and* living in a retirement home.

I'm in the 99% that should not feel at risk for covid 19; does it mean i'm invisible nope in fact when I went to get checked when i thought i had an ear infection (turned out to be acid reflux burned my inner ear), I was tested for cv19 because i had a few overlapping symptoms. (also negative).

It's really annoying seeing so much excess resources being wasted disinfecting literally 100,000,000x the surface areas needed, and blocking off reasonable access to 'the entire world' by again, perhaps 100,000x because people are afraid to be politically incorrect and point out exactly where the virus is. There is *no map* of where the virus is, but the statistics show it is 'inner city', so it's seemingly political which is ludicrous and asinine.

Oh; as far as 'blocking it from getting into the usa'; before we knew it was in the usa it was probably in every single state; there were about 400,000 people that flew from the epicenter of the source into the usa in the months of dec and january, and mostly came through NYC but went to every state in the union. With the long period of incubation and possibly (not shown for sure) transfer before symptoms are visible, it spread everywhere and that's why it 'spread' so fast; it didn't spread it was already there. Mostly just where the population density was highest. (still holding true to this day).

I agree by whatever means there was widespread infection before we were aware and that the initial goal was to make sure there were enough beds. As we are all aware, the curve is used as a guide to when a phased opening can safely be implemented. That is not to say the curve is accurate or the criteria of the phases are accurate. But using anything else seems to be like buying parts to correct a problem without doing the troubleshooting first.

I also agree that the initial indication of the rate of the spreed was not accurate but as recent a 3-4 weeks ago we have seen areas go form nothing to an alarming level. However it could also be because they didn't have the materials to test or test enough previously. Texas didn't have any focus on testing until the spike was well underway and testing is still insufficient. The President says testing doesn't really matte that much so maybe Texas is doing a great job (sarcasm).

And agree that the views coming from a myriad of sources via so called experts, even those with the appropriate training but without the benefit of all the information the CDC has have caused a great deal of confusion.

I agree that there has been no definitive information about how long the virus lives on what material so I have chosen again to err on the side of caution. There isn't even agreement on how far we need to be from each other to be sure we won't be infected. At first it was 6 feet and recently I read that it can be as far as 30 feet if carried by the wind or even air ducts. Part of the rationale to err on the side of caution are some of the people that have said on TV they are not following the guidelines and got the virus and asked to be interviewed again to say you don't want to get this virus, I made a big mistake, please follow the guidelines.

China did not release timely information for the CDC to have a chance to develop a treatment plan or properly protect those most vulnerable. Even our CDC representative in China was keep out of the loop. The CDC tarnished their credibility with a test that didn't work. The first and following estimates of how many could be infected or die were based on the best information available at the time. Each time the estimates were revised it made it look like they were out to lunch so it is very reasonable to conclude that don't know what they are doing and also is confusing. The end result is we are left to draw our own conclusions as you have. The base line for me is what the infection rate needs to be to control the spread. I believe that when we get over 1.2 people passing on the virus it is not under control.

We have numbers per county in Texas. Some counties and municipalities have set their own standards in line with the 1.2. but others have followed or even opened before the Texas guidelines were in place. Texas leadership is all about protecting the economy so the pedal is to the mental to open everything. Their position is if people die it is an acceptable sacrifice We have a so called phased opening but it is just a timetable rather that measuring the success of a phase before advancing to the next phase.

Cases in Texas are still increasing and my anecdotal estimate is less than 50% are protecting themselves or others. So I don't see reason to be comfortable when I am out. Some people have responded to the confusion by not following any of the guidelines. Others like me believe that it is prudent to err on the side of caution by following the guidelines and then some. We try to buy anything we need online or buy only from businesses that offer curbside pickup. That narrows the risk down to one person that is following the guidelines rather than everyone in the store.

IMO we need to address the problems of keeping economy open and the potential impact if we shouldn't do it very soon. We certainly are capable of doing both at the same time. Our failure to address the problem when we first knew about it is criminal. And with the minimizing done by our leadership and openly countering CDC input has had a big impact on the perception of the severity of the situation and how many Americans follow the guidelines.

Maruzo · #**616** 05-21-2020, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

I agree by whatever means there was widespread infection before we were aware and that the initial goal was to make sure there were enough beds. As we are all aware, the curve is used as a guide to when a phased opening can safely be implemented. That is not to say the curve is accurate or the criteria of the phases are accurate. But using anything else seems to be like buying parts to correct a problem without doing the troubleshooting first.

I also agree that the initial indication of the rate of the spreed was not accurate but as recent a 3-4 weeks ago we have seen areas go form nothing to an alarming level. However it could also be because they didn't have the materials to test or test enough previously. Texas didn't have any focus on testing until the spike was well underway and testing is still insufficient. The President says testing doesn't really matte that much so maybe Texas is doing a great job (sarcasm).

And agree that the views coming from a myriad of sources via so called experts, even those with the appropriate training but without the benefit of all the information the CDC has have caused a great deal of confusion.

I agree that there has been no definitive information about how long the virus lives on what material so I have chosen again to err on the side of caution. There isn't even agreement on how far we need to be from each other to be sure we won't be infected. At first it was 6 feet and recently I read that it can be as far as 30 feet if carried by the wind or even air ducts. Part of the rationale to err on the side of caution are some of the people that have said on TV they are not following the guidelines and got the virus and asked to be interviewed again to say you don't want to get this virus, I made a big mistake, please follow the guidelines.

China did not release timely information for the CDC to have a chance to develop a treatment plan or properly protect those most vulnerable. Even our CDC representative in China was keep out of the loop. The CDC tarnished their credibility with a test that didn't work. The first and following estimates of how many could be infected or die were based on the best information available at the time. Each time the estimates were revised it made it look like they were out to lunch so it is very reasonable to conclude that don't know what they are doing and also is confusing. The end result is we are left to draw our own conclusions as you have. The base line for me is what the infection rate needs to be to control the spread. I believe that when we get over 1.2 people passing on the virus it is not under control.

We have numbers per county in Texas. Some counties and municipalities have set their own standards in line with the 1.2. but others have followed or even opened before the Texas guidelines were in place. Texas leadership is all about protecting the economy so the pedal is to the mental to open everything. Their position is if people die it is an acceptable sacrifice We have a so called phased opening but it is just a timetable rather that measuring the success of a phase before advancing to the next phase.

Cases in Texas are still increasing and my anecdotal estimate is less than 50% are protecting themselves or others. So I don't see reason to be comfortable when I am out. Some people have responded to the confusion by not following any of the guidelines. Others like me believe that it is prudent to err on the side of caution by following the guidelines and then some. We try to buy anything we need online or buy only from businesses that offer curbside pickup. That narrows the risk down to one person that is following the guidelines rather than everyone in the store.

IMO we need to address the problems of keeping economy open and the potential impact if we shouldn't do it very soon. We certainly are capable of doing both at the same time. Our failure to address the problem when we first knew about it is criminal. And with the minimizing done by our leadership and openly countering CDC input has had a big impact on the perception of the severity of the situation and how many Americans follow the guidelines.

I believe this as well. We acted too late. There was no leadership when we needed it.

crystalworks · #**617** 05-21-2020, 02:11 PM

When all this is over... I think we'll realize how bad it is, though human nature obviously, to compare the giant, low population density, US with other countries in terms of reaction. Certain areas of the US should have taken measures like those countries for sure. But the vast majority of the country remains largely unaffected by CV19, as Andrew's data points out. But the same low impact can not be said economically.

Thank you Andrew for taking the time to compile data that is not given by the people who should be doing so. I've long given up watching MSM for anything but horror stories and partisan politics.

Maruzo · #**618** 05-21-2020, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crystalworks

When all this is over... I think we'll realize how bad it is, though human nature obviously, to compare the giant, low population density, US with other countries in terms of reaction. Certain areas of the US should have taken measures like those countries for sure. But the vast majority of the country remains largely unaffected by CV19, as Andrew's data points out. But the same low impact can not be said economically.

Thank you Andrew for taking the time to compile data that is not given by the people who should be doing so. I've long given up watching MSM for anything but horror stories and partisan politics.

NPR has some good podcasts from time to time. They present studies done by reputable experts on wide ranging subjects.

New York Times The Daily and NPR's Up First are worth a listen to.

crystalworks · #**619** 05-21-2020, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maruzo

NPR has some good podcasts from time to time. They present studies done by reputable experts on wide ranging subjects.

New York Times The Daily and NPR's Up First are worth a listen to.

Agreed. NPR does have some good stuff and is worth a listen. They do also have some of the partisan commenters/guests, which I suppose is inescapable, but still world's better than MSM.

bcredliner · #**620** 05-21-2020, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by crystalworks

It's the Wuhan flu-coronavirus to me as that's what it started as. Any issues with racial profiling were going to be there no matter what you call it. Everyone above the age of 10 knows where it originated.

Thanks for the map Stephen. Been using this one: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I know this is going to sound callous, but the world has been in need of a pandemic for awhile now, if for nothing else to highlight our complacency. Depending on which stats you reference the annual flu season kills 600,000+ yearly. Not sure where this caronavirus wiil ultimate end up statistically but it sure has highlighted our lack of preparedness (both domestically and abroad) and ability to handle such an outbreak. There's no money in it. My family and I just hope it doesn't seriously affect anyone within 3 or 4 points of contact of us. And I of course hope the same for all the Xoutpost community.

I don't understand why the world would ever be in the need of a pandemic that kills people around the world.

Perhaps the next administration will increase the CDC budget instead of reducing it, expand the task force instead of disbanding it, increase the funding of the WHO to better monitor what will emerge or the next administration will respond with a great preparation plan addressing the CDC, WHO, and Bill Gates warning all put forth years ago.

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