RE: X5 Unrelated, but Good Information in Times of Need - Page 61

Happy · #**601** 05-20-2020, 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrewwynn

I have had many discussion about religion. Often with devout athiests who will talk about how bad religion is and they are always pretty surprised when I tell them there is a HUGE difference between faith and religion and that religion is a man made concept full of man made problems.

AMEN!

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bcredliner · #**602** 05-20-2020, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrewwynn

eat yogurt regularly after any broad spectrum antibiotic lest you go through the extra week of hell i did. I wear a mask when i go to stores; even if i don't have CV i could quite possibly have cold or flu and those aren't nice to share with others either.

a recent study from japan showed that there is a very solid prophylaxis effect in BOTH directions when people wear masks; i think they said if one person wears a mask it's 30% better and if both 60% better.. i forgot the exact numbers but it's a very solid improvement when BOTH sides are wearing, ALSO in spite of the unfounded concern of self-infecting by touching the mask on the outside and then your face (vs perfect handling by just the ear straps), there is almost no risk of self-infection mishandling the mask so that's a HUGE DEAL.

in the studies long term meant all day for workers either construction etc avoiding dust or in health care. Another IMPORTANT NOTE! I have always preferred using the ventilators vs masks so i can breathe and also SEE (not fogging glasses each time i breathe out), but DUH that means you are venting your germs so I will take one for the team and use ventless masks when i go shopping to keep my germs to myself.

The problem is mobility; no matter how infections a disease is it will 'self limit' take stupidly deadly disease like ebola; it will self-eliminate very quickly by killing all the hosts ; for a germ to be successful it has to mutate to a *less deadly* germ so that it won't kill the host; as a favorite comedian pointed out long ago (referring to cancer at the time) but applies here also; if the disease kills the host it didn't win it's a TIE.

localized seclusion is the answer to stoping a contagion; why did china block *all* travel inside the country in/out of wuhan but allowed air travel by the millions? insanity. If we simply had a database that showed infection 'rate of change' and had a limit of say 10/100,000 increase per day as a limit and if a county hits that limit you simply put up a road block nobody in or out not related to curing people until that rate drops; it's an extreme measure but worked in china it will work anywhere.

People are driving *everywhere* in spite of *any* official lock down and no doubt some of them are taking the germ *everywhere*… it's a game of percentages; if people used logical reasoning like above it could be contained, and stopped.

This 'course' of cv19 is nearly behind us, by august it will be for all purposes gone in the usa unless something unseen in human history with viruses happens;

Viruses follow a 'logistics function' curve ; not some of the time *all the time*. they start stupid slow, you can't see the rate of increase initially and then they expand exponentially and you can't see any chance of slowing down and then almost as suddenly they level off quickly and the curve becomes a revers log curve and plateaus to its conclusion.

we are well past the inflection point and getting close to the end. we aren't 3 months into the official curve and it should be mostly over by 4… cv19 is a lot larger quantity than recent pandemic like covid 1 (sars) but that was maybe 3 months start to finish. cv19 will still likely have 50-100 deaths a day in a month which sounds pretty 'cold' to call that 'over' but like the majority of the current deaths, these were not healthy people to start with and for a population of 330 million 50-100 is statistical background noise (again not being insensitive to the pour soul who's grandma is officially background noise, clearly that is just sadly statistical verbiage and not meant disparagingly of course).

so; back to that initial question; usa will begin the most amazing road to recovery since the great depression this summer, it will be 'on a tear' before the end of the year but it will take 4-5 years to get back to where the usa is the 'clear winner' of the cv19 world wide financial reset.

Thanks for the advice. The sinus infection is defeated and the ear infection is in hospice.

We are on the same page in many instances. However, the decline in cases is directly related to the extent the guidelines are adhered to so I don't see the pandemic dying out anytime soon. Yes, viruses have had an upward curve and flatten out and drop back down. The overall height the curve reaches, the length of the flat spot and the rate of decline directly relates to the the counter actions taken. Unless the experts are out to lunch we are on the opposite track. We are inviting a win for the virus and a much more serious lose both economically, emotionally and physically for us. The experts are saying this virus is more contagious so previous counter measures are insufficient. They are also saying until we have a vaccine and an effective treatment plan the risk is high we could repeat what we have gone through, even worse, when the flu becomes the pal of the virus this winter.

I hope you are right that this will behind us soon and there will be a quick recovery to the economy.

bcredliner · #**603** 05-20-2020, 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Happy

Trash talk is when BCREDLINER starts typing.

And, I wasn’t trash talking. I was responding to someone who was.

If you are going to mediate, YOU NEED TO be fair and partial to both parties.

No go and deal with bcredliner.

EDITED, BECAUSE I AM NOT GOING TO TAKE ANYONES BS HERE!

When I did post information, I was told it was ridiculous!

Go deal with it mediator!

Saying the article is ridiculous is just an opinion. Nothing to get upset about. It has no reflection on you.

andrewwynn · #**604** 05-21-2020, 01:27 AM

Science is on my side and we are very much ahead of this cv19 thing when you dig though the information enough.

There is no more "news" as there was 20-30 years ago it's infotainment for profit and completely based for making money and most certainly not for just laying out facts.

Facts are like the ones I showed today. "News" today is nearly devoid of fact.

They are out there and anybody with a calculator can do similar math to what I've laid out today above.

Where the USA stands right now is that we had a peak in overall deaths of about 15% more than normal for a couple months. We are down to about 8% more than normal (which don't get me wrong, still worrisome numbers) but when you compare the death plot to a logistics curve you see it's well on the way to leveling off.

It's important to consider that much of the curve dynamic is portrayed by the phrase "flatten the curve" except not too accurately. Accurately it is "stretch the curve out hoizontally"

Having *everybody* wear a mask and avoid contact is a way to help achieve this but with the virus only in perhaps 5% of the land square miles of the entire USA it's a very expensive very inefficient way to do it. If just the 100 counties with 95% of covid cases had actual lock down nobody in or out would have actually lowered the curve not just stretched it out.

We have to play along unless somebody gives us an actual method to avoid the crazy thing.

That said I pretty much did above I will see if I can find a map that fairly accurately depicts the cv19 danger zones to better describe what I mean.

As somebody that lives in Wisconsin but regularly commutes to Chicago and works in an "exception" line or essential work and also having walked the walk amongst a hard hit C[r]ook county (county of Chicago), and going through cv19 triage as a suspect at the hospital I'm in a position of understanding that very few are in.

I'll add this: I have a chronic illness that has about five overlapping symptoms of cv19 so I've been in a constant state of anxiety since January living every day with 4-5 symptoms that are used to determine the risk or should be tested for CV.

Nobody knows much about my condition so nobody knows *anything at all* about the combination but the supposition is it would be *very bad* for me. In spite of that with reasonable conditions like PPD, and avoiding being black or old and in an old age home I have felt reasonably at ease going into the belly of the beast Chicago regularly (nearly every weekend since January).

I know enough from my personal research because the scare tactics of the non news does not help. Panic and Hysteria helps nobody.

"The experts" haven't made many correct calls on cv19. We got the hospitalization count way way lower than needed to be able to open up there country. As some states have started to open there have not been any big spikes in deaths (they are a lagging indication by about 3 weeks so we won't really know for a week or two).

IGNORE completely the case count. It has never been an indication of the spread of the virus. It's an indication of the spread of the TESTING of the virus. The more testing the lower the positive tests.

If you look at today's death total and multiply by about 50 and back up 20 days that should be close to the actual case count. Of the people that don't survive the average time is 20 days from onset. Ventilators don't seem to affect outcome too much it's pretty deadly for the rare case of the CV victims that need to be hospitalized sadly.

So going forward we have a pretty large database of about 100,000 people that didn't survive. We dig through those and figure out where they lived, what preexisting condition contributed to their sad demise and adjust our guidelines bases on FACTS of what preconditions make you unlikely to survive. (Only about 8% don't have a known deadly on its own pre-existing condition and die from CV 19).

If we knew these things in February we could have completely avoided the lockdown situation. When you look at the primary things that will kill you if you catch CV (heart disease, blood pressure, overweight), we can not only help protect those classes of people, we can work to reduce how many people in those classes. Losing weight will help you lower your blood pressure live longer and coincidentally far far more likely to survive cv19.

Maybe one more silver lining is people might start eating less (possibly by choice) and be healthier out of this experience.

So yes I'm quite confident that with people having their antennae up and cautious regarding how they interact and if warmer sunnier days also help slow transmission we should have the main concern behind us by end of July.

We will be very anxious until we get though winter and find out if it's a one time thing like sars or it's here to stay.

If winter hits and cv19 is held back to even annual flu levels it will not overwhelm our hospitals and we will do just fine overall. If it doesn't come back holy crap the result will cause the economy to explode. Companies and people will be holding their breath until November December until they know if it's coming back for round two.

We will not have lockdown the sequel. There are enough people "expert" or otherwise that know it wasn't a net positive and needs to be done differently if CV is here to stay and it will be handled infinitely better for the sequel.

andrewwynn · #**605** 05-21-2020, 01:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

Saying the article is ridiculous is just an opinion. Nothing to get upset about. It has no reflection on you.

+1. Unless you were the author and even so. I've been told *many* times what I've just said is ridiculous and a couple of those times the person who said it was correct.

It is *very* easy to miss a single word or even a comma and allow a written phrase really get under your skin. I've had it happen with a heated debate on xoutpost with @bc and in the end came to realize there was no malice. @bc is a very solid member of xo and deserves an amount of respect that comes with a nearly flawless record of doing exactly what do is here for : helping out other people. Don't work to derail that by letting feelings get in the way of logic.

All of us will let our feelings get in the way of being perfect communicators so when it seems like one of us is insulating the other take a step back ans realize that with lack of tone and inflection you more than likely read more into the statement than intended (I'm talking about the initial misunderstanding not the mudslinging that may have come later). In the Navy we would refer to that kind of nonsense as an "error carried forward".

Here's a good example of how it's very easy to misunderstand something tyoed by the slightest mistake:

Yesterday while at the family farm I helped my uncle jack off a horse.

Oops I forgot to capitalize.

My uncle Jack has bad knees and needed a little assistance dismounting the horse.

Assume no malice on xo *especially* from members with multiple thousands of posts. The likes of which are here because for some reason we are drawn to and get satisfaction out of *helping people*.

The best of us will *hit back* when offended even if the offence was a total misread. Some of my favorite xo "buddies" I've had stellar verbal fist fights with but they never got personal with nonsensical put downs. Ad homonym attacks and the likes.

It won't help you them or xo. If it helps nothing it's pointless don't bother.

Overboost · #**606** 05-21-2020, 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andrewwynn

My nickname for years has been "the cleaner"

Fantastic read waking up today Andrew. I want to thank you for cleaning up this thread.

Happy · #**607** 05-21-2020, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcredliner

Saying the article is ridiculous is just an opinion. Nothing to get upset about. It has no reflection on you.

No worries BC, let’s just put this all behind us. It’s a new day.

Happy · #**608** 05-21-2020, 08:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Overboost

Fantastic read waking up today Andrew. I want to thank you for cleaning up this thread.

I agree!

andrewwynn · #**609** 05-21-2020, 10:41 AM

My pleasure. I've been sick in bed pretty much all week it gave me something productive to do I've been wanting to share some of my findings.

In a PM I showed Happy how to properly relieve stress if you own an e53:

This was an actual route my GPS software chose for me as the quickest way the orher day.

For anybody that knows Chicago highways this is the 294/190 interchange and the hwy 45/190.

I was heading west on 90 meant to get on 294 north accidentally got onto 190 into ohare (one exit too soon), this "Ebola looking path" was my course correction.

Many people would have been pissed.

I've done the same thing before so not only did I know I was about to enjoy the shit out of three full power 270s, I knew to take a screen shot once the GPS plotted the course. I also laughed my ass off on the accidental offramp because I realized immediately when I was on the 190 vs 294 ramp. Apparently I was on auto pilot as I'm used to picking people up from ORD.

I similar oops happened to me once going east out of O'Hare; they relocated the South bound 294 "to Indiana" ramp. They basically added it to the north bound 294 exit lane so the first time I went to go home to Wisconsin out of O'Hare, a path I've taken 100s of times I find myself headed to Indiana vs Wisconsin because the off ramp lane had a bonus path without the all important "traffic patterns have changed" notice.

It was a similarly crazy Ebola like path to extract myself from that including O'Hare access roads getting back to 190 then pass the 294 S to get to 294 N.

Back to the topic of the thread: it really makes one wonder how on Earth this thing took roots as strong as It did with people putting forth probably 100x the effort of anti germ hygiene than a normal year and praise God they did!

How on Earth is it so strong in the places where it is?

So far "the experts" that suggested that caused "the police state" to then insist on "social distancing" said that really doesn't help (not that I will take much stock in that) but at least there's some solid evidence to support herd masktivity is helpful. Especially helpful is the notion that any type of covering better than nothing and that mishandling the mask does not badly hurt the efficacy (probably the most important part of that study).

I have (perhaps the last one sold) a bottle of 91% isopropyl spray I keep in my car i use to renew my masks it's perfect to sterilize the things because it's non contact and alcohol is the quickest way to kill the thing.

Once that runs out I will fill it with everclear which is even stronger and doesn't make everything it touches gross like isopropyl does.

I recommend everybody use everclear vs isopropyl. Pure vs poison, you can spray your hands and when you touch your mouth later eating an m&m you won't taste the horrible isopropyl you will taste only m&m. So irritating that "the grubberment" ruins a perfect thing like ethanol and gives us isopropyl. Similar with the "canned air duster" with the "bittering agent" to stop huffing mskes them useless for their intended purpose because you will taste that SHIT for days if you use it to dust anything you actually ever TOUCH like a KEYBOARD!

I use R134a cans now. Same stuff cheaper and no bittering agent. I made an adapter that taps into R134a and connects to a shop air needle blower.

Happy · #**610** 05-21-2020, 11:36 AM

Yes, this plague has been eye opening to say the least!

I am still in shock, how close to death nearly every member of my household was. The fevers, convulsions, hallucinations, shortness of breath, the persistent coughing fits that would last for hours, loss of consciousness.

Then came the ineffectiveness of the meds. Acetaminophen, wouldn’t break the fevers, had to be ibuprofen. Cold an flu remedies had no affect.

One member needed epinephrine, steroid shots, and antibiotics. The antibiotics had no response, after the course. This member also suffered all those child symptoms. The rashes, hives, blisters, swelling of the limbs.

I guess that’s why I am a bit sensitive to this thread. I am, part of those people and families you are reading about in the news. I have first hand evidence of what it’s like to have this plague run through your household.

I give thanks to God the Father, and to his Son Jesus, for allowing the Holy Spirit to remain with us. Not one member passed away. But let me tell you, It was literally hell on earth for me.

So again, I apologize to any member of this forum that I have offended. This thread is a tough one for me though. Please have patience for a brother, it’s been a long covid19 ride. (I can’t stand saying that awful name)

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